October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene hit 70 the other day and nary a whimper on this forum...

[Front Ranger]

2004 was a low level beast but from an upper level perspective 2007 was definitely more impressive. Go figure...

Exactly. Different animals, but I wouldn't call 2004 the greater event for cold.

[Front Ranger]

Eugene hit 70 the other day and nary a whimper on this forum...

Record?

[Deweydog]

Exactly. Different animals, but I wouldn't call 2004 the greater event for cold.

Some of the numbers in the basin were pretty crooked. And temps below 20 with snow falling only happens a few times a winter at PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record?

 

I don't know. It shocked me because it was raining and in the 50s up here that day. 

[Front Ranger]

Some of the numbers in the basin were pretty crooked. And temps below 20 with snow falling only happens a few times a winter at PDX.

Yes, were one only looking at the basin and gorge areas, 2004 was definitely more impressive, albeit low level powered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was wrong...It was actually 69 not 70 on the 26th in EUG. Big difference. The record high for the date was 79.

[Front Ranger]

I was wrong...It was actually 69 not 70 on the 26th in EUG. Big difference. The record high for the date was 79.

Very strange that the forum wasn't in a tizzy over a high 10 degrees below record at EUG.

[westcoastexpat]

I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the correlation between fall teleconnections/weather patterns is a very reliable method for predicting the winter forecast. The pattern will be what it will be come December.

 

January could be above normal/normal/below normal in temp or precip no matter happened in October/November, in my opinion. Odds may lean one way or the other based on history, but that simply is a probability measure... every outcome is possible from blowtorch to deepfreeze. I'd put my bets on a more "normal" winter, which would be colder and snowier than the latest slew of duds, and would probably be very welcome to a lot of us.

 

Given that we're heading into the winter with a fairly weak ENSO signal... it's fair game for any outcome.

[Jesse]

I don't know. It shocked me because it was raining and in the 50s up here that day.

I remember hearing the same thing and being pretty surprised given the conditions up here.

[Deweydog]

I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the correlation between fall teleconnections/weather patterns is a very reliable method for predicting the winter forecast. The pattern will be what it will be come December.

 

January could be above normal/normal/below normal in temp or precip no matter happened in October/November, in my opinion. Odds may lean one way or the other based on history, but that simply is a probability measure... every outcome is possible from blowtorch to deepfreeze. I'd put my bets on a more "normal" winter, which would be colder and snowier than the latest slew of duds, and would probably be very welcome to a lot of us.

 

Given that we're heading into the winter with a fairly weak ENSO signal... it's fair game for any outcome.

 

**.  

[Dave]

Eugene hit 70 the other day and nary a whimper on this forum...

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1410-october-2016-observations-and-model-discussion-for-the-pacific-northwest/page-78?do=findComment&comment=157300

[Jesse]

One of the warmest falls on record in this region, to this point. And bone dry. Awful.

Awfully nice!

[Jesse]

**.

What two-letter curse words are there?

[stuffradio]

What two-letter curse words are there?

no

[Deweydog]

What two-letter curse words are there?

What do you say to someone who is recklessly centerist and realistic? Two words, seven letters.

[wx_statman]

Sure, that's a long time from a human perspective.

 

However, I don't believe it says anything in regards to whether such an event is possible today. As historically cold months have occurred in many areas across the northern hemisphere in recent years, this suggests to me that indeed such an event is still possible today.

 

Sure, the climatological circulations (both over the NPAC and globe as a whole) have changed significantly during the J/F/M timeframe, however, I don't think these low frequency changes preclude a historically cold January, or a pattern analogous to those which produced great PNW Januaries in the past.

 

Rather, I'd argue it's simply more difficult to achieve today given the differences in the dominant circulatory modes.

 

So all of this adds up to what I said earlier - 

 

A "noteworthy" January (to use your words) by historical standards is all but unattainable in the modern era

 

38 years is longer than a standard 30-year climatological baseline. And that's how long it's been since our last significantly cold January, by historical standards. It may happen again, but recent climatology suggests the possibility is remote. 

[wx_statman]

As far as cold goes, 2007 was pretty close to 2004 for the western lowlands. Factoring both duration and lows, not just highs at PDX, of course.

 

Do you think that's the only criteria I look at?

[wx_statman]

Exactly. Different animals, but I wouldn't call 2004 the greater event for cold.

 

I would.

[Front Ranger]

Do you think that's the only criteria I look at?

No, but a PDX-centric viewpoint would fit with your statements.

 

As I said, for the Gorge outflow areas, 2004 was the greater event. Other western lowland areas? Not so much.

[Bryant]

What do you say to someone who is recklessly centerist and realistic? Two words, seven letters.

F**k you?

[Phil]

F**k you?

That's what I was thinking, lol.

[Deweydog]

F**k you?

**** yeah!

[Jesse]

**** yeah!

It bleeps that out to just two asterisks now?

[Deweydog]

It bleeps that out to just two asterisks now?

I guess so. Political correctness abounds!

[Bryant]

It bleeps that out to just two asterisks now?

I had to modify it just so it wouldn't be 2 asterisks lol

[snow_wizard]

What do you say to someone who is recklessly centerist and realistic? Two words, seven letters.

 

I just don't see the point of being THAT non committal.  What's the point of being interested in weather if you don't even want to take a stab at the coming winter?  It is at least possible to pick outcomes that are the most likely at least.

[snow_wizard]

Just going by probabilities there is little doubt the East Puget Sound lowlands will have some decent snow this winter.  We have gone 4 consecutive winters without a major snow event.  It would be unprecedented to go 5 and we have cold ENSO.

[BLI snowman]

Exactly. Different animals, but I wouldn't call 2004 the greater event for cold.

I would. Quite clearly a colder event overall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No, but a PDX-centric viewpoint would fit with your statements.

 

As I said, for the Gorge outflow areas, 2004 was the greater event. Other western lowland areas? Not so much.

 

Salem had a 24/19, 29/19, and a 32/28. SLE is not a common "gorge outflow" area. 

[snow_wizard]

I would. Quite clearly a colder event overall.

 

2007 was certainly better here.  Much colder lows due to no wind, more clear / cold days, and more days with decent snow cover.

[Deweydog]

Just going by probabilities there is little doubt the East Puget Sound lowlands will have some decent snow this winter. We have gone 4 consecutive winters without a major snow event. It would be unprecedented to go 5 and we have cold ENSO.

Just one man's opinion but it seems more enjoyable to suspended the manic escapades.

 

And yes, it will probably snow in your neck of the woods this winter.

[snow_wizard]

For those not too wild about the progs for November take a look at this.  This is a 500mb composite of the Novembers preceding 12 of the best Janauries in the NW from 1915 to 1980.  Exactly what the ECMWF weeklies show happening as the month progresses.

[BLI snowman]

2007 was certainly better here.  Much colder lows due to no wind, more clear / cold days, and more days with decent snow cover.

 

Was it?

 

Landsburg had a 22/14 day in the 2004 event compared to a 32/14 spread in 2007.

 

Bellingham had a daytime high of 19 with the CAA in 2004, 26 with CAA in 2007. 2004 was a colder source airmass and it showed, for the most part. 

[wx_statman]

No, but a PDX-centric viewpoint would fit with your statements.

 

As I said, for the Gorge outflow areas, 2004 was the greater event. Other western lowland areas? Not so much.

 

When talking about cold waves (and heat waves for that matter), I prefer a regional perspective. From a regional perspective, January 2004 was a more impressive cold wave, in my opinion, than January 2007. As a matter of fact, I consider the January 2004 cold wave to be a "major" Arctic outbreak, while I don't consider the cold wave in mid-January 2007 as such. 

 

But let me ask you - what point are you trying to make? I referenced the January 2004 cold wave because, in my opinion, its the last time we saw a "major" Arctic outbreak in January here in the PNW. Do you disagree with that statement? Do you also consider the January 2007 cold wave to be a "major" Arctic outbreak? You're not being very clear. 

[snow_wizard]

Was it?

 

Landsburg had a 22/14 day in the 2004 event compared to a 32/14 spread in 2007.

 

Bellingham had a daytime high of 19 with the CAA in 2004, 26 with CAA in 2007. 2004 was a colder source airmass and it showed, for the most part. 

 

Landsburg gets colder outflow winds than I do here.  IMBY the coldest for 2004 was 19 and 2007 14.

[snow_wizard]

Incidentally look at the composite image I posted a few posts back and compare it to the 500mb anomaly composite for this month.  The November composite map is a true Aleutian low.  As you can see the low this month is very displaced to call it an Aleutian low.

 

 

[wx_statman]

Was it?

 

Landsburg had a 22/14 day in the 2004 event compared to a 32/14 spread in 2007.

 

Bellingham had a daytime high of 19 with the CAA in 2004, 26 with CAA in 2007. 2004 was a colder source airmass and it showed, for the most part.

 

Exactly.

 

Even Toledo, far removed from either Fraser or Columbia Gorge outflow, had a 24/14 day on the 5th, followed by 9" of snow on the 6th.

 

East of the Cascades its no contest, the January 2004 airmass produced significantly colder readings (i.e. -29 in LaCrosse, -22 in Spokane, etc). Top tier cold in January, a rarity in the modern era! 

[Phil]

For those not too wild about the progs for November take a look at this. This is a 500mb composite of the Novembers preceding 12 of the best Janauries in the NW from 1915 to 1980. Exactly what the ECMWF weeklies show happening as the month progresses.

Shouldn't that be November 1979 instead of November 1980?

 

What about 1978/79? Or 1955/56?

[Phil]

Incidentally look at the composite image I posted a few posts back and compare it to the 500mb anomaly composite for this month. The November composite map is a true Aleutian low. As you can see the low this month is very displaced to call it an Aleutian low.

Uh, that's definitely an Aleutian low/extended jet look with the latitudinally overlapping anticyclones.

 

In other words, +PNA. No use denying it.