October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

I could even argue Jan 2012 was a better arctic outbreak than 2007 and 2004 if we still want to argue 2004 was so great, for my backyard.

 

You very well could. Didn't January 2012 produce the coldest minimums in the Fraser Valley since 1989?

 

However, you would be missing the point with regards to the original exchange between Phil and myself, which in turn Front Ranger responded to. 

[Front Ranger]

That would not be a legitimate argument, IMO. Data doesn't support it. Unless you're willing to significantly water down the term "major" as it pertains to regional Arctic outbreaks, especially in a historical context. 

 

Eh. This particular point means more to you than me, but I do think it would be interesting to have a statistical breakdown of all significant cold waves since 1980, with set criteria applied to a certain set of stations.

 

I might do that at some point.

[Tundra]

The newest edition of the 12z GFS shows the first signs of an Arctic Blast for the lower 48 in the long range. A massive Block forms in Upper Western Canada letting Arctic air to drop down South. We are right on the edge here at the PNW as the majority of the Arctic air heads into Idaho/Montana. Models like the CESM are showing massive Blocking in Western Alaska for December and January so if that occurs I don't see why the PNW wouldn't get periods of Arctic air during that time period.

 

http://i.imgur.com/RfxtUTL.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/3VG6AxT.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/OaH8ITf.png

[HighlandExperience]

[Bryant]

Sure Bryant.    Not what all the PMs in my box say about you.

Don't bother me one bit! As long as you continue the BS, so will I

[TT-SEA]

Don't bother me one bit! As long as you continue the BS, so will I

 

 

Perfect.     

[snow_wizard]

Tweet from joebastardi this morning.

 

@snowwizard No snow in Covington this winter.

 

It wouldn't surprise me.  He seems awfully gleeful.

[wx_statman]

Eh. This particular point means more to you than me, but I do think it would be interesting to have a statistical breakdown of all significant cold waves since 1980, with set criteria applied to a certain set of stations.

 

I might do that at some point.

 

It should mean more to you. That's if you take analysis of weather events seriously, from a historical perspective. 

[Brennan]

In 2004 it was a matter of being out of the windy locations. The wind never stopped here so the temps weren't as good as 2007. As I've also mentioned 2007 was much better from a clear / cold pattern with snow on the ground perspective than 2004.

A part of the criteria I use is compact snow and ice on the roads. If Bellingham has compact snow/ice on the majority of the roads for at least 3 days it's pretty significant. In 2007 all of the snow fell at 33 and 32 degrees so the roads were bare through most of the event which is disappointing. The snow going into 2004's event fell from 32 all the way down to 21 degrees. The roads were caked for almost 5 days.

 

P.s. Before anyone argues my point... i am aware that snow doesn't have any part in determing severity of arctic outbreaks...

[TT-SEA]

Looks SEA is almost up to 60 now.    Warm start this morning too.  

 

WRF was wrong again about a cool weekend.   

 

#ecmwfsurfacemapsrule

[crf450ish]

Was breezy with a very low cloud deck at my place this morning and a whopping 37 degrees

[Deweydog]

I think the most important thing to keep in mind with regard to this 2004/2007 fiasco is the fact 2004 is NOT in the 2006-2014, eight-winter circle of trust.

[wx_statman]

You got more specific in following statements to your original, after I did as well. No reason to rehash things, it's just not that big of a deal. I wasn't intending a debate, just pointing out that depending on how you look at it, Jan 2007 was a very comparable event for many areas. Mainly because of lows and duration.

 

One could argue the last "major" January Arctic outbreak for the PNW was 2007, 2004, 1996, 1980, or further back... depending on the criteria.

 

And the thing is, January 2004 actually produced the coldest minimums out of the two events, both east and west of the Cascades (in addition to generally lower maximums). 

 

Lowest minimums from official stations in western WA in January 2004, taken from the NOAA State Climatological Summary (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-D29A1448-E18A-487A-B7D5-55BC6F79004C.pdf):

 

8 at Shelton

9 at Mount Vernon

10 at OLM

10 at Bellingham KVOS

10 at Bellingham 3SSW COOP

11 at Sequim

 

And the lowest minimums from January 2007, from the same source (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-8EF212B8-6B41-4A7D-A97F-9BA4B3DAA70F.pdf):

 

10 at BLI (this numbers appears @ the Utah Climate Center but not in this publication)

11 at Humptulips

12 at Sequim

12 at OLM

 

Note the lack of 8-10F readings in January 2007 (outside of Bellingham), as opposed to January 2004.

 

East of the Cascades, it was no contest. The lowest minimum in January 2004 was -29 in LaCrosse, while the lowest minimum in January 2007 was -17 in Mazama. The maximums were colder in January 2004 as well.  

[crf450ish]

Briefly spoke to a member of the Spokane Indian reservation today. Talked about the weather mainly. He thinks this winter is going to be worse than the last 5 respectively.

[crf450ish]

Anyone Have any useful links on the November 2010 event? I bared the brunt of it as I was living in Eatonville at the time. I've never seen anything like it in the western WA lowlands. I clearly remember driving from Yelm to Eatonville via hwy 702. The farther east I travelled on 702, the deeper the snow got and it was actively snowing as well. By the time I arrived home there was 16" on the ground. It didn't stop snowing until around 2am. I stayed up for every moment of it. The next morning the snow was up to my knees. Someone on here said that they suspect the system stalled over Eatonville as it was shoved up against the cascades....

 

Forgot to add that the temp in Yelm as I was leaving was 20F. I remember that like it just happened because I was in such disbelief that it was that cold and the wind was blowing like hell and snowing as well. In Eatonville it was 16F. Normally Eatonville tends to run a few degrees warmer than the Yelm/Ranier, Lacey areas.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone Have any useful links on the November 2010 event? I bared the brunt of it as I was living in Eatonville at the time. I've never seen anything like it in the western WA lowlands. I clearly remember driving from Yelm to Eatonville via hwy 702. The farther east I travelled on 702, the deeper the snow got and it was actively snowing as well. By the time I arrived home there was 16" on the ground. It didn't stop snowing until around 2am. I stayed up for every moment of it. The next morning the snow was up to my knees. Someone on here said that they suspect the system stalled over Eatonville as it was shoved up against the cascades....

 

Forgot to add that the temp in Yelm as I was leaving was 20F. I remember that like it just happened because I was in such disbelief that it was that cold and the wind was blowing like hell and snowing as well. In Eatonville it was 16F. Normally Eatonville tends to run a few degrees warmer than the Yelm/Ranier, Lacey areas.

 

 

Here is some information from Cliff... there are probably some other posts around that time with specific details.  My location is closest to the top snow total in King County on his list (North Bend 3 ESE) with 13 inches.  

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/amazing-videos.html

[wx_statman]

Anyone Have any useful links on the November 2010 event? I bared the brunt of it as I was living in Eatonville at the time. I've never seen anything like it in the western WA lowlands. I clearly remember driving from Yelm to Eatonville via hwy 702. The farther east I travelled on 702, the deeper the snow got and it was actively snowing as well. By the time I arrived home there was 16" on the ground. It didn't stop snowing until around 2am. I stayed up for every moment of it. The next morning the snow was up to my knees. Someone on here said that they suspect the system stalled over Eatonville as it was shoved up against the cascades....

 

Forgot to add that the temp in Yelm as I was leaving was 20F. I remember that like it just happened because I was in such disbelief that it was that cold and the wind was blowing like hell and snowing as well. In Eatonville it was 16F. Normally Eatonville tends to run a few degrees warmer than the Yelm/Ranier, Lacey areas.

 

Wow! Although I wonder how much of that depth was due to drifting? 

 

I've located a post from November 2010 by our own Front Ranger (then known as Flatiron) on Western:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/30982-november-2010-arctic-outbreak/?p=496662

 

IIRC this information came from a Public Information Statement put out by the Seattle NWS office. Notice there's a report of 12.3" from Eatonville which is definitely in the ballpark of what you're describing. Impressive totals of 14" to 15" in the Port Angeles and Sequim areas too.  

[wx_statman]

Here is some information from Cliff... there are probably some other posts around that time with specific details.  My location is closest to the top snow total in King County on his list (North Bend 3 ESE) with 13 inches.  

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/amazing-videos.html

 

I notice there's a 17" total listed for Eatonville, but at 800 feet ASL. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is over 9 inches of rain in October for the first time ever.   

 

The SEA NWS had post a couple days ago talking about how rare 9+ inches of rain is in any month at SEA.

[snow_wizard]

Anyone Have any useful links on the November 2010 event? I bared the brunt of it as I was living in Eatonville at the time. I've never seen anything like it in the western WA lowlands. I clearly remember driving from Yelm to Eatonville via hwy 702. The farther east I travelled on 702, the deeper the snow got and it was actively snowing as well. By the time I arrived home there was 16" on the ground. It didn't stop snowing until around 2am. I stayed up for every moment of it. The next morning the snow was up to my knees. Someone on here said that they suspect the system stalled over Eatonville as it was shoved up against the cascades....

 

Forgot to add that the temp in Yelm as I was leaving was 20F. I remember that like it just happened because I was in such disbelief that it was that cold and the wind was blowing like hell and snowing as well. In Eatonville it was 16F. Normally Eatonville tends to run a few degrees warmer than the Yelm/Ranier, Lacey areas.

 

Great event for sure.  I was more on the northern side of it, but still got 6 inches with snow falling at a temp of 22 degrees.  The extreme low at my place from that Arctic blast was 8 degrees.  Colder than I have recorded in any January since I began keeping records in 1979 and colder than any November including 1985 when it dropped to 10.

[snow_wizard]

Briefly spoke to a member of the Spokane Indian reservation today. Talked about the weather mainly. He thinks this winter is going to be worse than the last 5 respectively.

 

I agree.

[snow_wizard]

SEA is over 9 inches of rain in October for the first time ever.   

 

The SEA NWS had post a couple days ago talking about how rare 9+ inches of rain is in any month at SEA.

 

We probably have a good shot at the wettest Oct - Nov combo ever as well.

[snow_wizard]

It actually appears we might have some decent low temps tonight.

[Jesse]

It actually appears we might have some decent low temps tonight.

I was going to mention. Was just out and about and noticed the stars were out. That has been a rarity this month. Most shortlived clearing we have had has occurred during daylight hours.

[ShawniganLake]

I was going to mention. Was just out and about and noticed the stars were out. That has been a rarity this month. Most shortlived clearing we have had has occurred during daylight hours.

Currently 45F here after a high of 52 this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Currently 45F here after a high of 52 this afternoon.

 

 

More favorable timing down here today... clouds and rain cleared right around noon and allowed for a partly sunny and warm afternoon.   

 

SEA is at +7 for the day... depending on whether they dip below 51 by midnight.     53 there now with an east wind starting up.  

[snow_wizard]

The 0z is back to more of a east based GOA trough again, which means not as warm for us as previous runs and no cold troughing in the East.  It will be interesting to see if we shift to a traditional Aleutian / GOA trough in November or if it remains east based like this month has been.  The one danger with the east based scenario is a reversal during the winter would put a mean ridge a bit too far east to be optimal for cold and moisture together.  Would probably be a dry / cold scenario for us.  There would always be a chance of undercutting though.

[Sometimesdylan]

Looks like we might get a dusting of snow later this week before it gets washed away by the rain... Hopefully it sticks up high.

[ShawniganLake]

We probably have a good shot at the wettest Oct - Nov combo ever as well.

Do you know which years are highest in this regard.

[snow_wizard]

Do you know which years are highest in this regard.

 

I'll have to see if can find more tweener years like this.  I do know that complete reversals are the most common transition in years that have a GOA / Aleutian trough in November and major cold waves during the winter.

 

When I say tweener year I mean a pattern that has anomaly centers longitudinally halfway between what you would normally expect in a given ENSO state vs the opposite ENSO state.

[Deweydog]

49!!!

[Phil]

I'll have to see if can find more tweener years like this. I do know that complete reversals are the most common transition in years that have a GOA / Aleutian trough in November and major cold waves during the winter.

 

When I say tweener year I mean a pattern that has anomaly centers longitudinally halfway between what you would normally expect in a given ENSO state vs the opposite ENSO state.

Aleutian trough/+PNA, -SOI, +AAM integral = Niño regime.

 

Intraseasonal, of course, but still. Hard to argue against it.

[Sometimesdylan]

Some of our snowiest winters:

1)2006/07

2)1964/65

3)1975/76

4)2008/09

[HighlandExperience]

Anyone Have any useful links on the November 2010 event? I bared the brunt of it as I was living in Eatonville at the time. I've never seen anything like it in the western WA lowlands. I clearly remember driving from Yelm to Eatonville via hwy 702. The farther east I travelled on 702, the deeper the snow got and it was actively snowing as well. By the time I arrived home there was 16" on the ground. It didn't stop snowing until around 2am. I stayed up for every moment of it. The next morning the snow was up to my knees. Someone on here said that they suspect the system stalled over Eatonville as it was shoved up against the cascades....

 

Forgot to add that the temp in Yelm as I was leaving was 20F. I remember that like it just happened because I was in such disbelief that it was that cold and the wind was blowing like hell and snowing as well. In Eatonville it was 16F. Normally Eatonville tends to run a few degrees warmer than the Yelm/Ranier, Lacey areas.

Very cool story. Did you live in Eatonville for quite sometime. I'd imagine they get some pretty good snows every now and than.

[Abbotsford_wx]

No temperature trend at all over the past 30 days.

 

The white line is 10C (lots of days averaging near that mark this month).

 

With today's rain I'm at 9.93" of rain so far this month.

 

[James Jones]

That is a monster of an Aleutian low on the Euro. 

[crf450ish]

Very cool story. Did you live in Eatonville for quite sometime. I'd imagine they get some pretty good snows every now and than.

Lived there for 5 years. As a rule, no, Eatonville does not receive as much as you'd think. They must be part of some geographic anomaly because they tend to run warmer than surrounding areas. You can travel farther towards Elbe and Ashford and start seeing some snow. It really piles up when you start heading down Skate Creek road. I Rememeber tons of times as a kid going hunting with my dad and driving through Eatonvile and nothing. Elbe nothing. Ashford=about a foot of snow suddenly

[TT-SEA]

PDX radar has been comically bad lately.   

 

0503 UTC ON 30 OCTOBER (10:03 PM PDT 29 OCTOBER). DUE TO MAJOR MECHANICAL ISSU
E...PORTLAND OREGON WSR RADAR (KRTX) WILL BE DOWN. NO ESTIMATE ON WHEN WILL RET
URN TO SERVICE...BUT LIKELY WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS.

[Jesse]

Lived there for 5 years. As a rule, no, Eatonville does not receive as much as you'd think. They must be part of some geographic anomaly because they tend to run warmer than surrounding areas. You can travel farther towards Elbe and Ashford and start seeing some snow. It really piles up when you start heading down Skate Creek road. I Rememeber tons of times as a kid going hunting with my dad and driving through Eatonvile and nothing. Elbe nothing. Ashford=about a foot of snow suddenly

That makes sense. By the time you get to Skate Creek road you are basically in the Cascades.

[MossMan]

PDX radar has been comically bad lately.

 

0503 UTC ON 30 OCTOBER (10:03 PM PDT 29 OCTOBER). DUE TO MAJOR MECHANICAL ISSU

E...PORTLAND OREGON WSR RADAR (KRTX) WILL BE DOWN. NO ESTIMATE ON WHEN WILL RET

URN TO SERVICE...BUT LIKELY WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS.

The month of October did it in!