October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Not really. I just kind of spun it a little.

Whatever helps, I guess...

[Jesse]

Getting some fairly strong south winds here.

[westcoastexpat]

No, we didn't miss out on Jan 2012. I have been talking about Jan 2012 on here often.

 

But you are at a higher elevation, no? In terms of widespread goods across metro Vancouver, I think December 2008 was the last biggie. I got about 6" from the Jan 2012 event, south of the Fraser. I don't think the southwest quadrant did that well.

[Phil]

Clown range GFS is trying something!

[Jesse]

I'm liking the ridgy theme that is starting to emerge in the mid-long range. Should shake things up a little. The general weather pattern has been more or less the same the last four weeks.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Shenanigans
La-La Land/Wishcast alert. Yep. It has occurred. This is the first model run of Fall 2016 to depict a colder air mass spilling southward out of Canada into the PNW. The first tease at day 15-16 has shown itself. The first cold Canadian trough of November digs south-southwestward right over us. Looking at the 500mb loop shows a ridge beginning to build over the southern Plains/southeastern US which would lock the trough in place over us for several days. The ridge placement/axis offshore is not ideal of course, and we'd ideally want to see the Aleutian Vortex/Trough retrograde further back towards western Siberia, but if you were to extrapolate things beyond day 16 WA/OR would turn quite chilly. As well, 500mb anomalies shows a real beefy ridge and ideal heights over southern Alaska. This ridge may retrograde a bit and positive tilt -> favorably. If only this were at day 7.... It's going to be a fun late Fall and Winter folks!!!!  This would be well into mid-November, so it shows us what is certainly possible by that time of year and it is because we've seen this exact pattern play itself out before in November. Again this is just fun to look at, but don't take it too literally. Subject to change: Probably. 'Tis the Season!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016103106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016103106/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016103106/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely crushing the October rainfall record at SEA today.   Started the day at 9.4 inches (old record was 8.96) and heavy rain moving in now.  

[stuffradio]

But you are at a higher elevation, no? In terms of widespread goods across metro Vancouver, I think December 2008 was the last biggie. I got about 6" from the Jan 2012 event, south of the Fraser. I don't think the southwest quadrant did that well.

I am, but Abbotsford and Chilliwack also got hammered.

[Canadian guy]

Maybe, the northern suburbs and up the Saanich Peninsula have certainly had accumulating snow at times.  There was snow falling downtown with that event, but I'm not sure if anything actually stuck within the city. 

 

Victoria only received a dusting in December 2013 and maybe an inch during the late February 2014 event. It has been a pathetic last 4 years for snow here.

[TT-SEA]

SEA has picked up another .32 in the last 2 hours... closing in on 10 inches for the month now.   

 

Just incredible.

[BLI snowman]

PDX has .10" to go to reach their monthly record. Going to be extremely close.

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA has picked up another .32 in the last 2 hours... closing in on 10 inches for the month now.   

 

Just incredible.

Very impressive.  Especially considering the consistency of the rain this month (no 5" days like 03 to pad the amount).  Sistek had an interesting stat that Seattle gets about 5 days a year with over an inch of rain a day.  Seattle has had 4 such days in the last couple weeks alone.  It's not a good sign that I am already getting antsy for some dry weather and we haven't even gotten to November yet. 

[westcoastexpat]

I am, but Abbotsford and Chilliwack also got hammered.

Nice, how much did they get?

 

I guess it was more of a Fraser valley special than for those in metro Van. We're hungry

[Jesse]

PDX has .10" to go to reach their monthly record. Going to be extremely close.

I knew it was getting close. A heavy shower at some point today could technically do it. Having the radar down makes things even more interesting.

 

#nailbiter

[westcoastexpat]

Anyone else concerned about the low sea ice on the arctic? Northern north America is running way above normal and destroying records. Meanwhile Asia is way below normal from Ukraine to Japan. I hope the pattern flips soon. We need a cold source for the winter and right now the arctic is downright balmy.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice, how much did they get?

 

I guess it was more of a Fraser valley special than for those in metro Van. We're hungry

14" that month at YXX.  Max depth was 9.5"

[stuffradio]

Nice, how much did they get?

 

I guess it was more of a Fraser valley special than for those in metro Van. We're hungry

A foot or so.

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone else concerned about the low sea ice on the arctic? Northern north America is running way above normal and destroying records. Meanwhile Asia is way below normal from Ukraine to Japan. I hope the pattern flips soon. We need a cold source for the winter and right now the arctic is downright balmy.

Concerned in what regard?  As you mentioned, Asia is cold despite the low sea ice.  Why would the same thing not be possible in North America. 

[Phil]

Concerned in what regard? As you mentioned, Asia is cold despite the low sea ice. Why would the same thing not be possible in North America.

Yeah, it's nothing to be worried about. The icepack is relatively low this year as a result of the blocking regime that's put the entirety of Eurasia in the freezer.

 

I continue to believe North America will get in on the action during the second half of November, starting about one week before Thanksgiving. I first made this prediction in late September so I can't walk it back now..

[bainbridgekid]

I'm curious how Feb 2014 was in Glenhaven. People I talk to here tell me we never get much snow, but I find that hard to believe...

I'm pretty sure that area got smacked. Accumulations were pretty temperature dependent and being away from the water with orographic lift should have done the trick. Wouldn't surprise me at all if you had close to 18".

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake will end up with ~12.5" of rain for October.  Good for 2nd place all time, since 1911. 

[MossMan]

It's raining!!

[stuffradio]

Victoria, BC broke its record of rainy days in October with 27 days. The previous records were 25 set in 85 and 67.

[Front Ranger]

Anyone else concerned about the low sea ice on the arctic? Northern north America is running way above normal and destroying records. Meanwhile Asia is way below normal from Ukraine to Japan. I hope the pattern flips soon. We need a cold source for the winter and right now the arctic is downright balmy.

 

Likely setting up for -AO, though. The Arctic will be cold no matter what this winter. Anomalies aside, it's more important to have blocking up there to (whether it be -AO or -EPO or -NAO) to get cold air into the CONUS.

[Jesse]

Likely setting up for -AO, though. The Arctic will be cold no matter what this winter. Anomalies aside, it's more important to have blocking up there to (whether it be -AO or -EPO or -NAO) to get cold air into the CONUS.

Yeah, it's not like the gradually warming arctic has had any sort of negative effect on our winters over the last few decades.

[Phil]

Victoria, BC broke its record of rainy days in October with 27 days. The previous records were 25 set in 85 and 67.

There's that 1967/68 analog again. Personally am skeptical it holds much weight but interesting to see it continue popping up nonetheless, as WxStatman noted.

[Phil]

Likely setting up for -AO, though. The Arctic will be cold no matter what this winter. Anomalies aside, it's more important to have blocking up there to (whether it be -AO or -EPO or -NAO) to get cold air into the CONUS.

This 100%.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, it's not like the gradually warming arctic has had any sort of negative effect on our winters over the last few decades.

Blocking in the right place still produces cold weather. Feb 2011 and Dec 2013 still happened, despite the Arctic being considerably warmer than 50 years ago.

 

I just don't see any reason to fret about the current low Arctic ice, in relation to winter prospects.

[bainbridgekid]

No... he wants it warm.   WRF is certainly interesting.    Just noticed that the 12Z ECMWF was pretty warm for Wednesday - Friday as well.   

 

I think we started November 2010 off with some very warm weather and then was a winter wonderland just 3 weeks later.  

I believe SEA had a high of 74 that month and a low of 14. Largest monthly spread in SEA's history.

[Bryant]

I'm pretty sure that area got smacked. Accumulations were pretty temperature dependent and being away from the water with orographic lift should have done the trick. Wouldn't surprise me at all if you had close to 18".

Interesting, goes against what people here say, but this winter will be a good test hopefully

[Jesse]

Blocking in the right place still produces cold weather. Feb 2011 and Dec 2013 still happened, despite the Arctic being considerably warmer than 50 years ago.

 

I just don't see any reason to fret about the current low Arctic ice, in relation to winter prospects.

True, fretting won't do anything, but burying your head in the sand and acting like it has no affect is pretty pointless too.

[Jesse]

Some showers moving through, but tough to tell their coverage and intensity without radar. Hopefully they can boost PDX up to the record.

[Front Ranger]

True, fretting won't do anything, but burying your head in the sand and acting like it has no affect is pretty pointless too.

 

So you think we're less likely to see Arctic air masses this winter because the Arctic is currently relatively balmy?

[stuffradio]

It's crazy how hard it's been raining today.

[Jesse]

So you think we're less likely to see Arctic air masses this winter because the Arctic is currently relatively balmy?

Less intense arctic air masses with a warmer source region that have more difficulty overcoming terrain issues? Yes, most likely.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Anyone else concerned about the low sea ice on the arctic? Northern north America is running way above normal and destroying records. Meanwhile Asia is way below normal from Ukraine to Japan. I hope the pattern flips soon. We need a cold source for the winter and right now the arctic is downright balmy.

 

I believe the warming Arctic is one of the major factors causing the current California drought. It seems to be happening at nearly the same time of the Hadley Cell expansion, which really got going from the very late 90's and beyond. Ever since I have been hearing / reading about record low sea ice extent in the Arctic around 2006 or so, it has been quite dry overall in Socal, except for 2007-08, 2009-10 and 2010-11.

[Deweydog]

Not sure if it's entirely related but the ice in my soda at Red Robin last night seemed to melt faster than normal.

[Front Ranger]

Less intense arctic air masses with a warmer source region that have more difficulty overcoming terrain issues? Yes, most likely.

 

Again, I think the concern is misplaced. The bigger issue is getting blocking where you need it, not how "warm" the source region is. You can have a super cold Arctic, but with no mechanism to deliver the cold air, it doesn't matter.

 

Likewise, we've seen that when you get the right blocking, even our current tropical Arctic is still cold enough to deliver the goods.

[Timmy Supercell]

Not sure if it's entirely related but the ice in my soda at Red Robin last night seemed to melt faster than normal.

 

Chem ice cubes. I thought you knew. The air is polluting our water j/k

[Timmy Supercell]

Special Marine Warnings being issued by Eureka today. Some t'storms offshore capable of producing waterspouts. Very active October regarding convection this year, considering everything else before this.