October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

It's above my paygrade, but I suspect tropical remnants are a pretty small part of the equation when it comes to strong cyclogenesis at this latitude. I would say PW is more of a direct descendant.

 

The warm core definitely helps, since mid-latitude storms are driven by temperature differential. I don't know how much it helps though. 

[wx_statman]

It will be close.

 

There is no reason to think that. PDX had sustained 1-minute wind of 88 mph before the equipment was damaged (and stopped recording). 

 

Nobody is forecasting anything close to that.

[wx_statman]

I can't stand gel deodorant.

 

I've flipped back and forth between the dry and gel camps. 

[TT-SEA]

Winterdog - this was my post this morning.      Just reporting the overall look of the GFS ensembles.

 

GFS is still not really showing any cooler weather returning after this storm cycle:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Still looks about the same:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Tundra]

The NWS Portland on Saturday going for gusts up to 65 mph but higher ridges and peaks of the Cascades could see 100 mph.

[wx_statman]

On the Coast, some spots yes.

 

Cape Blanco had an estimated wind gust to 179 mph. Estimated 170+ at Hebo AFS and 160 mph measured at Naselle Ridge.

 

Again, there's no reason to think these numbers will be approached.

[Perturbed Member]

I don't think our Saturday low will be deep enough nor will it take the ideal track to produce a 1962 like result. I could be wrong of course .

 

I think a 2006 Hanukkah Eve level storm is probably more likely down here. We're still going to see plenty of downed trees, power outages and localized flooding. I'm already seeing some streets with high water. 

[westcoastexpat]

On the Coast, some spots yes.

 

Wow those are some very dangerous winds. Where are 130 mph gusts being forecast on the coast? I think I missed that model run. Could you post an image showing that please? Now I'm really scared

[wx_statman]

The NWS Portland on Saturday going for gusts up to 65 mph but higher ridges and peaks of the Cascades could see 100 mph.

 

OK, this is a good example. Corvallis gusted to 127 mph in the Columbus Day Storm. 

 

65 mph is not close. Does that make sense?

[BLI snowman]

I get the impression that our storm dynamics here in the PNW are too much for the East Coast population to comprehend. Its apples and oranges. 

 

To be fair, extratropical jet phasing can work wonders back there as well. We saw it with Sandy and also with Grace back in 1991.

[BLI snowman]

What I meant by it will be close is that I see the Coast matching very close to what it got in the Columbus Day Storm while the Valleys will have more of a December 1995 storm.

 

Newport hit 138mph in 1962. They won't come close to that this weekend.

 

1962 was easily a once-a-century type event, if not rarer.

[wx_statman]

To be fair, extratropical jet phasing can work wonders back there as well. We saw it with Sandy and also with Grace back in 1991.

 

Fair points, but unfortunately understood by only a small fraction of the population!

[westcoastexpat]

The NWS Portland on Saturday going for gusts up to 65 mph but higher ridges and peaks of the Cascades could see 100 mph.

 

NWS Portland is forecasting 55 mph gusts on their website for Portland. Is there another place to find this information?

[Tundra]

NWS Portland is forecasting 55 mph gusts on their website for Portland. Is there another place to find this information?

 

It alerted me on all my weather apps. High Wind Watch

[TT-SEA]

OK, this is a good example. Corvallis gusted to 127 mph in the Columbus Day Storm. 

 

65 mph is not close. Does that make sense?

 

 

127mph at Corvallis is amazing.  

[Guest Winterdog]

GFS is still not really showing any cooler weather returning after this storm cycle:

 

Tim, here is the post in question. Sorry this turned into such a pain in the butt.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, here is the post in question. Sorry this turned into such a pain in the butt.

 

 

I already quoted myself above.  

[Kayla]

PDX is up to 1.56" of rainfall for the day with the heaviest rainfall still to come.

 

Can PDX squeeze out another 0.89" and snag a new record for the rainiest October day?!

[wx_statman]

We have different interpretations of what close means. Tropical Storm force winds are close to Hurricane force winds, that was what I was trying to state.

 

You can say that again! 

[Phil]

Cape Blanco had an estimated wind gust to 179 mph. Estimated 170+ at Hebo AFS and 160 mph measured at Naselle Ridge.

 

Again, there's no reason to think these numbers will be approached.

What is an estimated wind gust?

[Deweydog]

PDX is up to 1.56" of rainfall for the day with the heaviest rainfall still to come.

 

Can PDX squeeze out another 0.89" and snag a new record for the rainiest October day?!

I'd be surprised if they got more than .50 this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah but when was the last time we had a Super Typhoon get entrenched into the jet stream and then deepen like the Columbus Day Storm? Plus, I have never seen the amount of news and social media coverage this storm is creating ever from across the US.

 

Typhoon remnants get entrained in our jet stream almost every year. And social media means nothing. 

[bainbridgekid]

You can say that again! 

Next time I'm driving 127 on the freeway, I'm going to claim I was going close to the 65 mph speed limit.

 

Tundra will be my lawyer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record I was "jabbing" Jim not Tim... Little reason at this point to believe there will be some kind of major cold snap within the next 2-3 weeks. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Winds are getting louder.. comparing to one of my severe wind events in Feb 2015 (that reached 63-65mph) this sounds like 55-58 right now. Walls rumbling. If Saturday is going to be bigger than anything I had last year then I am betting we're going to lose power this weekend.

[wx_statman]

What is an estimated wind gust?

 

That's what I've read. 

[Guest Winterdog]

I already quoted myself above.  

Yeah I see that now. The two graphs threw me off a bit. I think I should be banned for stupidity.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah I see that now. The two graphs threw me off a bit. I think I should be banned for stupidity.

Thats what Jesse would say...

[Guest Winterdog]

For the record I was "jabbing" Jim not Tim... Little reason at this point to believe there will be some kind of major cold snap within the next 2-3 weeks.

Please see my last post.

[Kayla]

I'd be surprised if they got more than .50 this evening.

 

TMK just picked up 1.25" in the past 3 hours. Looks likely that we'll still see some 0.2-0.3" rainfall rates from 7pm-10pm which could add to this riveting mid October drama.

 

2.27"

[wx_statman]

That's what I've read. 

 

I just did some more digging on this. Apparently the 179 mph gust at Cape Blanco came from a NWS assessment of the damaged anemometer. 

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA236&lpg=PA236&dq=cape+blanco+179+mph+1962&source=bl&ots=jacjdYkFR3&sig=zJf5HtBaU-ttsnsHGsapljHIm0E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjr3KzVktnPAhVI3mMKHd3BBNgQ6AEIUzAJ#v=onepage&q=cape%20blanco%20179%20mph%201962&f=false

 

According to multiple sources online the anemometer failed at 145 mph. 

[bainbridgekid]

I just did some more digging on this. Apparently the 179 mph gust at Cape Blanco came from a NWS assessment of the damaged anemometer. 

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA236&lpg=PA236&dq=cape+blanco+179+mph+1962&source=bl&ots=jacjdYkFR3&sig=zJf5HtBaU-ttsnsHGsapljHIm0E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjr3KzVktnPAhVI3mMKHd3BBNgQ6AEIUzAJ#v=onepage&q=cape%20blanco%20179%20mph%201962&f=false

 

According to multiple sources online the anemometer failed at 145 mph. 

Seems like an oddly specific number based solely on damage.

[Kayla]

That's what I've read. 

 

The 170 from Hebo AFS was estimated because the reporting station there was destroyed after recording a 130 mph gust and the radar domes up there were destroyed that were supposedly rated up to 170 mph.

[seattleweatherguy]

Winds are getting louder.. comparing to one of my severe wind events in Feb 2015 (that reached 63-65mph) this sounds like 55-58 right now. Walls rumbling. If Saturday is going to be bigger than anything I had last year then I am betting we're going to lose power this weekend.

 

Thought Oregon past Portland was going to be spared. For Sat

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 6pm Astoria was up to 2.47" of rain on the day. 

[BLI snowman]

I just did some more digging on this. Apparently the 179 mph gust at Cape Blanco came from a NWS assessment of the damaged anemometer. 

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA236&lpg=PA236&dq=cape+blanco+179+mph+1962&source=bl&ots=jacjdYkFR3&sig=zJf5HtBaU-ttsnsHGsapljHIm0E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjr3KzVktnPAhVI3mMKHd3BBNgQ6AEIUzAJ#v=onepage&q=cape%20blanco%20179%20mph%201962&f=false

 

According to multiple sources online the anemometer failed at 145 mph. 

 

Not many anemometers are going to get anything over that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind really starting to howl through here right now. Probably gusting around 30-35mph. 

[wx_statman]

Seems like an oddly specific number based solely on damage.

Yeah, it does.

[wx_statman]

The 170 from Hebo AFS was estimated because the reporting station there was destroyed after recording a 130 mph gust and the radar domes up there were destroyed that were supposedly rated up to 170 mph.

Exactly. I actually posted this information in this thread yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

For the record I was "jabbing" Jim not Tim... Little reason at this point to believe there will be some kind of major cold snap within the next 2-3 weeks. 

 

OK....

 

I was more excited about the deep negative PNA anyway.  Still looks like it's on to me.