October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

Just tweeted by KSEA NWS

 

UPDATE: Models beginning to have stronger agreement on worst-case scenario for Saturday storm.

So one to be remembered

[Tundra]

Still lots of uncertainty on how this Sou'wester will form and track up the coastline. Expect more model flip flopping as we get inside a day out and even then we will need to rely on the GOLU model because these Sou'Wester's sometimes veer off course. A slight shift here and there will make all the difference in the World.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass update...

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/storm-update_13.html?m=1

[Tundra]

I don't know if anybody has heard of this model but it's the MF-ARPEGE. It was on the meteocentre.com website. Basically it's the France Model. Here is it's newest 12z run. The wind gusts are insane.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/WGE_PN_054_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/WGE_PN_060_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/WGE_PN_066_0000.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

Scott Sistek on Twitter: 12Z both GFS and Euro now converging on the severe Saturday wind storm scenario. In KOMO planning meeting now. Will tweet more soon.

 

Sounds like NWS/media outlets starting to lean towards Puget Sound-focused scenario.

I am selfish but  BRING IT!! 

[westcoastexpat]

Scott Sistek on Twitter: 12Z both GFS and Euro now converging on the severe Saturday wind storm scenario. In KOMO planning meeting now. Will tweet more soon.

 

Sounds like NWS/media outlets starting to lean towards Puget Sound-focused scenario.

 

It's a fair guess at this point. I'd say Puget sound is likely to see some of the strongest wind gusts in a few years for sure. I think Vancouver, BC and Portland are more likely to have a dud storm given they're on the periphery of the current trend.

[MossMan]

I am selfish but BRING IT!!

I'm with ya!!! My generator is ready to roll!!

[Bryant]

Hoping to see some action on the Whatcom/Skagit County border, time will tell 

[Guest Winterdog]

I am selfish but  BRING IT!! 

Even though I do share a fascination with all of you about the coming storm I have to admit I am not looking forward to the hardship and discomfort it may bring. Days without power, cooking on the barbecue, no internet, heating with the wood stove, stumbling around in darkness etc. are not enjoyable. Instead, give me an arctic front with plummeting temperatures and blowing snow. There is a beauty with the snow that makes the hardships blend with the aesthetics of a smoothed and freshened landscape as opposed to the damp, dark, and broken sweep after a major wind storm. I pray there is no loss of life resulting from this reckless visitor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.08" at PDX now. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Even though I do share a fascination with all of you about the coming storm I have to admit I am not looking forward to the hardship and discomfort it may bring. Days without power, cooking on the barbecue, no internet, heating with the wood stove, stumbling around in darkness etc. are not enjoyable. Instead, give me an arctic front with plummeting temperatures and blowing snow. There is a beauty with the snow that makes the hardships blend with the aesthetics of a smoothed and freshened landscape as opposed to the damp, dark, and broken sweep after a major wind storm. I pray there is no loss of life resulting from this reckless visitor.

 

That is totally understandable. I'm pretty fortunate because I live in an area that is usually very quick at restoring power. I can't think of a time in my life where the power was out for more than 18 hours or so (that includes when I lived in more rural areas than I do now). But I could definitely see it becoming a drag after a day or so.

[TT-SEA]

Even though I do share a fascination with all of you about the coming storm I have to admit I am not looking forward to the hardship and discomfort it may bring. Days without power, cooking on the barbecue, no internet, heating with the wood stove, stumbling around in darkness etc. are not enjoyable. Instead, give me an arctic front with plummeting temperatures and blowing snow. There is a beauty with the snow that makes the hardships blend with the aesthetics of a smoothed and freshened landscape as opposed to the damp, dark, and broken sweep after a major wind storm. I pray there is no loss of life resulting from this reckless visitor.

 

 

I totally agree.   It is what it is... but I am not looking forward to it at all.   

[westcoastexpat]

18Z NAM essentially a carbon copy of the 12Z GFS, showing ~55 mph gusts along the I-5 corridor on Saturday.

[BLI snowman]

4km-18z NAM showing a 964mb landfall near UIL

 

 

 

[Guest Sounder]

Should I start boarding up my windows??? Why aren't there evacuation warnings??? What will the storm surge be like in downtown??? I'm moving my gas BBQ inside my studio for warmth when the power goes out. How long will it take the National Guard to get into the disaster zone next week???

[westcoastexpat]

You're probably right and this is a nonevent for everyone. No need to panic or prepare, just a normal breezy wet day.

 

I definitely don't agree that it will be a nonevent for everyone. 55-65 mph gusts are nothing to sneeze at in my opinion. I don't think it's fair to say that it will be a "normal", "breezy" day. We haven't had a storm like this in a few years. Especially with the trees having their canopy, power outages will be likely for a lot of areas. I'd also say that having water jugs would be prudent, especially given the high rainfall... reservoir water could become contaminated.

[ShawniganLake]

Will be interesting to see if we see the standard NW trend in the models over the next 36hrs.

[MossMan]

Even though I do share a fascination with all of you about the coming storm I have to admit I am not looking forward to the hardship and discomfort it may bring. Days without power, cooking on the barbecue, no internet, heating with the wood stove, stumbling around in darkness etc. are not enjoyable. Instead, give me an arctic front with plummeting temperatures and blowing snow. There is a beauty with the snow that makes the hardships blend with the aesthetics of a smoothed and freshened landscape as opposed to the damp, dark, and broken sweep after a major wind storm. I pray there is no loss of life resulting from this reckless visitor.

I agree I would take a major arctic intrusion with snow over wind but since we are still a month away from that being an option I am greatly looking forward to this possible major event!

[TT-SEA]

Will be interesting to see if we see the standard NW trend in the models over the next 36hrs.

 

 

I sure hope so.   

[ShawniganLake]

I sure hope so.

Often things start looking a lot different once cyclogenesis starts taking shape. Seems common up here, for something that looks like a direct hit, ends up turning towards northern Vancouver island in the last 24hrs.

[westcoastexpat]

Often things start looking a lot different once cyclogenesis starts taking shape. Seems common up here, for something that looks like a direct hit, ends up turning towards northern Vancouver island in the last 24hrs.

 

I think what makes forecasting so difficult for the PNW, aside from the topographical elements, is the lack of sampling before a system comes onshore. For example, forecasting for a winter storm out east becomes a lot easier once the system makes landfall in the west, because the system has so many stations monitoring its behaviour -- as a result, models tend to converge on a solution. But for the PNW, you've got a system out in the ocean with very sparse buoy data. It's very difficult to model a system with such limited data. It's mainly why I tend to be more conservative when forecasting for events in the PNW in the medium range.

 

We are entering the short range forecast now, with 48 hours until Songda strikes... this is when the modelling gets really interesting. 

[Tundra]

70mph gusts.

Low at 967 approaching the peninsula.

4km-18z NAM showing a 964mb landfall near UIL

 

 

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_us_42.png

 

I have a feeling this Sou'wester is going to be one for the ages. The fact the its deepening as it races up the coastline is very key to achieving this.

[Prairiedog]

Climatology takes over most of the time with these storms.  It's truly the exception that we get smacked. Not unlike snow storms and arctic outbreaks. Climo.   Time and time again these storms spin up, bomb and make a beeline north.  It's just what they do.  It looked like it had a chance to nail the Portland area but I never felt it would just because of climo as much as the models (some of the models) said it would hit near here somewhere.  If it were within maybe 12-18 hrs and it looked like a lock then I'd jump on the band wagon.  It will still and can possibly get pretty windy here in the N. Willamette Valley but it probably (at least at this point in time) won't be one to write home about.  Now watch it make an idiot out of me.  I won't be upset if I'm wrong and I loose power for a few days.  I like windstorms!  I don't like seeing people having to deal with the stress of property damage or worse either.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS Curse strikes again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The truly big story is all the rain!

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

[Jbolin]

Mike Bettes on the Weather channel just said that Saturday's system could be worse than CDS in 1962

 

Whaaaaaaa

 

What model suites is he looking at?

[Phil]

I think what makes forecasting so difficult for the PNW, aside from the topographical elements, is the lack of sampling before a system comes onshore. For example, forecasting for a winter storm out east becomes a lot easier once the system makes landfall in the west, because the system has so many stations monitoring its behaviour -- as a result, models tend to converge on a solution. But for the PNW, you've got a system out in the ocean with very sparse buoy data. It's very difficult to model a system with such limited data. It's mainly why I tend to be more conservative when forecasting for events in the PNW in the medium range.

 

We are entering the short range forecast now, with 48 hours until Songda strikes... this is when the modelling gets really interesting.

The vast majority of data assimilated into the modeling is satellite derived. There are dozens of radiosonde launch sites upstream/over the Pacific, and when you get down to it, the real error differential between the NPAC/west coast and NATL/east coast is statistically insignificant.

 

An error in one domain will correspond to an error in another domain, which will correspond to an error in another domain, so on. So in the end, you're dealing with the inescapable void of chaos (blah blah, can't measure the speed and location of a particle simultaneously, blah blah).

[MossMan]

Mike Bettes on the Weather channel just said that Saturday's system could be worse than CDS in 1962

 

Whaaaaaaa

 

What model suites is he looking at?

Wow huge hype and from the East Coast...the media madness has begun!

[westcoastexpat]

18z GFS looks to be about the same strength/track as 12z. 973mb off coast of Olympic Peninsula, 980mb up near Vancouver.

 

18Z GFS tightens the gradient on the south end, shifting the impacts a tad north but increasing the strength on the southern side of the low. Astoria to Olympia really gets hit incredibly hard on this run...  We're talking 70+ mph gusts

 

GFS does continue to ease off on Portland... still a good wind storm there but nothing devastating.

[BLI snowman]

The truly big story is all the rain!

 

 

 

Not sure where the 2" of rain is going to come from tomorrow. Looks pretty showery all day, to me.

[westcoastexpat]

Mike Bettes on the Weather channel just said that Saturday's system could be worse than CDS in 1962

 

Whaaaaaaa

 

What model suites is he looking at?

 

No idea. No model shows anything close to CDS. I think he's misinformed on how bad the CDS actually was.

[Jbolin]

No idea. No model shows anything close to CDS. I think he's misinformed on how bad the CDS actually was.

Ya think, most people outside of the Pac NW have no real grasp on how bad CDS truly was for the region

[Deweydog]

Inauguration Day storm starting to look like it might be a decent analog, although that one took a more inland track.

 

That storm certainly raped and assaulted the area, didn't just talk about it.

[Phil]

Mike Bettes on the Weather channel just said that Saturday's system could be worse than CDS in 1962

 

Whaaaaaaa

 

What model suites is he looking at?

Ratings trump common sense. Always.

[BLI snowman]

Inauguration Day storm starting to look like it might be a decent analog, although that one took a more inland track.

 

That storm certainly raped and assaulted the area, didn't just talk about it.

 

Was pretty much a non-event down this way. This storm should be a good 10mb or more deeper.

[MossMan]

Inauguration Day storm starting to look like it might be a decent analog, although that one took a more inland track.

 

That storm certainly raped and assaulted the area, didn't just talk about it.

I had trees falling in front of me while trying to get home from school via my new to me Chevy ElCamino during that storm! Was such fun!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Inauguration Day storm starting to look like it might be a decent analog, although that one took a more inland track.

 

That storm certainly raped and assaulted the area, didn't just talk about it.

Yeah that was a doozy.. over 600,000 without power at the high point with that one. This one is in the realm of possibilities.

[stuffradio]

Ratings trump common sense. Always.

Trump trumps common sense too.

[TT-SEA]

I'm thinking Hannukah Eve storm in '06 is another good analog to look at, in conjunction with Inauguration Day storm.

 

Although, the Hannukah Eve storm came in more due-west and was a tad stronger (957mb) but still relatively similar to this one.

 

 

Trajectory on the 2006 storm made a big difference for my area.   That was a perfect track and strength to hit this area.

 

A storm moving northward along the coast is going to hit areas near the Sound much harder than out here.  

[HighlandExperience]

Inauguration Day storm starting to look like it might be a decent analog, although that one took a more inland track.

 

That storm certainly raped and assaulted the area, didn't just talk about it.

So is this a harbinger of Trump