November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Watching Michigan game in the snow earlier was beautiful to see.

[GDR]

West Virginia and Oklahoma it's snowing

[OKwx2k4]

West Virginia and Oklahoma it's snowing

Yup. I'm watching it right now. It's a beautiful thing.

[Thunder98]

Yup. I'm watching it right now. It's a beautiful thing.

 

Yay!!

[Tom]

18z GEFS illustrating a cold/wintry pattern smack dab in the heartland of the nation....it's even picking up on lake moisture from LM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111918/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111918/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

[OKwx2k4]

North America is a glacier on the CFS today.

[Tom]

North America is a glacier on the CFS today.cfs_snowfall_conus_2016111912_181t.png

There is enough longer range guidance that suggests to me this is going to be one hellova flip if you haven't seen one in your life time!  In terms of snow, it looks like a subtropical/GOM connection could fire up the southern stream storm track and unload.

[Tom]

The GFS and Euro Ensembles are trying to seed enough cold down into that southern system around the 1st to bring snows to Oklahoma. It would be about 41-43 days since the dreary, cold storm of October down here. I think it has merit. I'd like to see a good measurable snow to open December here and then I think a huge storm should follow it around the 4th-6th. Nearly the entirety of the northern half of the country is going to be covered in snow soon. What an amazing transition we are about to see.

Indeed, I'm stoked what I'm seeing and its not just one fluke run after another.  Regarding the storm system, I'm trying to figure out if this will be a 2-part system sending one wave into the upper midwest while the stronger/southern wave digs into your area and ejects towards the Lakes.  Between Oct 19-21st, there was a stationary boundary that parked itself from the TX Panhandle/OK/S MO/S IL/S IN regions and a wave developed along it.  That system was loaded with moisture.  This whole LRC pattern had copious amounts of moisture but in different regions of the PAC NW/West and a little near the Lakes/Upper Midwest.

 

 

Fast forward to Winter, take into account the blocking, your going to see some moisture laden storms IMO.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Last1mPDeptUS.png

[Tom]

The last half of the LRC is starting to show signs of moisture coming out of the SW/Southern Plains...

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPDeptUS.png

[Guest Snowball]

Please give me the CFS! Wow!

[hlcater]

North America is a glacier on the CFS today.cfs_snowfall_conus_2016111912_181t.png

All of those verify pls, esp 2 and 3  

[Thunder98]

North America is a glacier on the CFS today.cfs_snowfall_conus_2016111912_181t.png

 

Wow! The Whole Country has turned into Ice!

[Niko]

It was not bad, that's for sure. About 17". 2000 and 2008 were the biggies around here (in recent times)

[Niko]

Man, the winds are howling now and I am getting one heck of a snowsquall. Pure whiteout.

[Niko]

Man, is it blustery outside. Went to take out the garbage and the wind is biting cold. WCF near 17F.

[james1976]

North America is a glacier on the CFS today.cfs_snowfall_conus_2016111912_181t.png

That is nuts! Give me any of those

[OKwx2k4]

Beautiful morning for some deer hunting.

[Tom]

Beautiful morning for some deer hunting.

Good luck shooting a buck!

[Tom]

Post storm, both Michigan and Superior still running much above normal.  It's going to take some serious cold fronts to cool these bodies of waters back down to normal.  Expect an extended season of LES/:Lehs this year.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Good luck shooting a buck!

Thank you. Had a low of 24 this morning. That will sure wake you up when you're not quite used to it yet!

[Hawkeye]

We made it down to 20 in town this morning.  The airport hit 17.

[Tom]

GEFS trending with an ominous storm track over the central CONUS.  Ridges off both the west and east coasts...SE ridge looking formidable as the PNA heads towards neutral.  

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112006/gfs-ens_z500trend_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112006/gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_28.png

[bud2380]

Could be a little snow on Thanksgiving night in parts of Iowa.

 

This is the EPS Control from 00z run last night.

 

 

[Tom]

Could be a little snow on Thanksgiving night in parts of Iowa.

 

This is the EPS Control from 00z run last night.

 

 

euro.PNG

I'm thinking of starting a storm thread for the Pre-Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday snow events.  Looks like the chances are looking better for a wintry system during the holiday in and around the region.

[Money]

GFS still showing a monster storm around the end of November

[westMJim]

Here is a little weather history for today in south central lower Michigan

 

November 20

1869: More than a foot of snow fell at Lansing, setting a record for the most ever recorded during the month of November.

2000: An intense lake effect snow squall dropped almost a foot of snow on Grand Rapids, setting a record for the most snow in a November day there. 

 

I will toss up these tidbits from the past 

[Tom]

I started a separate storm thread for the 2 systems around the Thanksgiving holiday...

 

12z GFS...impressive start to Winter if this transpires...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112012/384/snku_acc.conus.png

[OKwx2k4]

I started a separate storm thread for the 2 systems around the Thanksgiving holiday...

 

12z GFS...impressive start to Winter if this transpires...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112012/384/snku_acc.conus.png

I hate that storm track. I don't want a repeat of last year.

[Tom]

I hate that storm track. I don't want a repeat of last year.

Not ideal for us around here either, but it's way early in the season.  I'm sure there will be storms that cut west/east and others that simply bowling ball across the country.  There's a lot of blocking this year and should help create various storm tracks of which we haven't seen in a long while. I just like the fact that there are actual storms to track and not any weak open waves which we have been accustomed to.

[westMJim]

Not ideal for us around here either, but it's way early in the season.  I'm sure there will be storms that cut west/east and others that simply bowling ball across the country.  There's a lot of blocking this year and should help create various storm tracks of which we haven't seen in a long while. I just like the fact that there are actual storms to track and not any weak open waves which we have been accustomed to.

I will agree it still early in the season. But we shall see. 

[westMJim]

Cloudy, somewhat windy, and a cold 32° here at my house. Still have some snow on the ground and roofs and car tops here. I had a total of just under one inch here.  Depending on how warm it gets today at the airport it could be either the coldest maximum temperature since either April 4^th (34° 230 days) or it could be the coldest since March 3^rd (28° 262 days) either way it is the coldest daytime temperature is a long time.

[Tom]

Take some pics of snow out there boys!

[Tom]

12z GEFS advertising multiple waves of energy to close out the month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_33.png

 

Day later...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_37.png

 

Somewhat bigger wave to open December...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_45.png

[Niko]

Its cold outside! Currently @ 32F.

[Tom]

That ridge near Hudson Bay is going to be a key player moving forward as storms dive down into the 4 corners region and cut up near the Lakes/OV.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_8.png

 

 

That is an impressive looking jet stream poised to bring some action and satisfaction for a lot of members on here...there could be storm systems to track every 3-5 days if this pattern doesn't break.  Maybe the CFSv2 is not off its rocker laying down a glacier in December!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_43.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112012/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_59.png

[GDR]

Next 10 days for Des Moines is looking like highs in the 50s

[james1976]

Tom, what day do you fly back again?

[Tom]

Tom, what day do you fly back again?

I fly back on the 30th and arrive at 7:11pm...gonna be a nail biter to see what happens.  I'm going to literally get off the plane, head home and put up my lights!  Something tells me it's going to snow around my place on the 1st.

[jaster220]

 

That is an impressive looking jet stream poised to bring some action and satisfaction for a lot of members on here...there could be storm systems to track every 3-5 days if this pattern doesn't break.  Maybe the CFSv2 is not off its rocker laying down a glacier in December!

 

That looks incredible Tom. Let's see if we can get temps to cooperate for snow in our back yards too!

[Money]

GGEM end of it's run:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112012/240/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

24 HR Snowfall:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112012/240/snku_024h.conus.png