November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Vancouver Island's ski resort "Mount Washington" was sold to a Utah based company last year.  The company is known for snow making and has started to put in the infrastructure for it.  Looks like they might not need it this year if the next 10 days work out as modelled.  Snowing up there today. 

 

    https://www.mountwashington.ca/tube-cam.html

[westcoastexpat]

You love those hour 384 maps!

 

There's nothing much to talk about except the long range.

 

I clearly stated "Looks like this for 6 days straight with no signs of it breaking down at the end of the run:" and then posted an image of the end of the run.... 

 

I really believe that you have a lot of potential to be a great poster. I encourage you to turn things around!

[westcoastexpat]

Death Ridge! ... Lala land which is good.

 

Agreed. The 00Z looked great, and the 06Z looked the exact opposite. GFS flip flopping quite a bit in the long range, although that's to be expected.

[ShawniganLake]

I doubt anybody else on here watches CFL football, but the east Final is being played in a snowstorm in Ottawa currently. 

[Phil]

Now for Phil to tell us this is exactly what we don't want to see right now.

That would be Jim, I think. #tooearly

 

The 12z ECMWF is okay..would like to see more amplification over the NPAC to avoid another +PNA after the next AAM return cycle.

[Deweydog]

I doubt anybody else on here watches CFL football, but the east Final is being played in a snowstorm in Ottawa currently.

Is it coming our way???

[Weather101]

Friday's snow potential on the WRF for southern Vancouver island

 

wa_snow24_132_0000.gif

You might get lucky

[Weather101]

I doubt anybody else on here watches CFL football, but the east Final is being played in a snowstorm in Ottawa currently.

Yup. Fun to watch. Watching this and the Cowboys game.

[TT-SEA]

I doubt anybody else on here watches CFL football, but the east Final is being played in a snowstorm in Ottawa currently. 

 

 

Just turned it on... really dumping there.

 

Its on ESPN2 down here.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z Euro is a thing of beauty.

 

Really nice alright.  A really strong -NAO -PNA which has been hinted at for a while now.

[snow_wizard]

That would be Jim, I think. #tooearly

 

The 12z ECMWF is okay..would like to see more amplification over the NPAC to avoid another +PNA after the next AAM return cycle.

 

Nope.  This all falls into the category of warning shot.  Not the big event yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's coming.... Get ready.... Be prepared

[snow_wizard]

On the 12 GFS Nov 1968 shows up as an analog at day 8 and Dec 1968 shows up at day 11.  Certainly the best example of a -NAO  -PNA winter on record.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i.imgur.com/qTfC9Wj.jpg

[Phil]

Nope. This all falls into the category of warning shot. Not the big event yet.

Just kidding around.

 

Whether it's a warning shot, or parting shot, remains to be seen, obviously. I generally prefer to be cautious in a year like this.

[crf450ish]

That's .5 inches more than I have had the past couple years.

Yeah. I quit putting up with the climate west of the cascades a couple years ago and worked to change where we live. Its nice knowing that the snow will come, only a matter of time, as well as the flip side knowing that summer means summer, not a few days of sun here and there with weeks of clouds and rain between. I know a few others who have made the same decision as we did, also mainly based on the weather. 

[Bryant]

http://imgur.com/yCRbluP

 

Finally got my favorite map printed and framed 16x20. Any guesses of what the date is???

This is sweet man! Made it viewable for you without clicking...

 

http://i.imgur.com/yCRbluP.jpg

[crf450ish]

http://imgur.com/yCRbluP

 

Finally got my favorite map printed and framed 16x20. Any guesses of what the date is???

I can't guess what the date is but holy cow, what would life be like in Seattle if that happened again?

[Bryant]

12Z ECMWF shows snow for my location on Friday afternoon and evening.

12z GFS flirts with a potential snow risk for northern areas, but it's mediocre at best.

 

http://i.imgur.com/2K4fBl5.jpg

[BLI snowman]

http://imgur.com/yCRbluP

 

Finally got my favorite map printed and framed 16x20. Any guesses of what the date is???

12/29/1968

[Front Ranger]

12/29/1968

 

Seconded.

[MossMan]

This is sweet man! Made it viewable for you without clicking...

 

http://i.imgur.com/yCRbluP.jpg

What a pretty beast!!

[Weather101]

12z GFS flirts with a potential snow risk for northern areas, but it's mediocre at best.

 

http://i.imgur.com/2K4fBl5.jpg

Something to watch for sure.

[MossMan]

12z GFS flirts with a potential snow risk for northern areas, but it's mediocre at best.

 

http://i.imgur.com/2K4fBl5.jpg

Perhaps that low will travel about 100 miles south...that might help.

[Bryant]

Perhaps that low will travel about 100 miles south...that might help.

That low has been advertised on and off for a while now. Not much cold air to work with however

[Front Ranger]

This is going to be an epic winter for our Canadian friends.

[westcoastexpat]

Latest model suite certainly has a 2008 look to it. Probably our best analog.

[ShawniganLake]

This is going to be an epic winter for our Canadian friends.

Explain? I'm curious what you are thinking. Or is this sarcastic?

[westcoastexpat]

12z CFS:

First week of December: chilly

Mid December: balmy

Late December: first major wave of cold, likely worsening into the new year

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see +PNA set up in January. I recall a lot of outlooks agreeing on that, with a regression in February back similar -PNA as seen in December.

 

October cool, November warm, December cool, January warm, February cool... flip flopping is pretty typical of a weak Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah. I quit putting up with the climate west of the cascades a couple years ago and worked to change where we live. Its nice knowing that the snow will come, only a matter of time, as well as the flip side knowing that summer means summer, not a few days of sun here and there with weeks of clouds and rain between. I know a few others who have made the same decision as we did, also mainly based on the weather. 

 

 

The summers here are fine.  The winters can be a real drag, but some are decent.

[Front Ranger]

Explain? I'm curious what you are thinking. Or is this sarcastic?

 

I'm serious. A lot of signs point to a northern-favored winter, especially for snowfall.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm serious. A lot of signs point to a northern-favored winter, especially for snowfall.

 

I also agree with this.

 

I think Oregon and southern WA will have a harder time this winter than Whatcom/Vancouver. Cooler 850s have had no problem this fall for those areas and given the general jet positioning this fall, they will probably be better off. I could see a lot of borderline events working out for the north.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm serious. A lot of signs point to a northern-favored winter, especially for snowfall.

 

Nothing for Eugene 

[Dave]

Nothing for Eugene 

Eugene is people too.

[Gradient Keeper]

I also agree with this.

 

I think Oregon and southern WA will have a harder time this winter than Whatcom/Vancouver. Cooler 850s have had no problem this fall for those areas and given the general jet positioning this fall, they will probably be better off. I could see a lot of borderline events working out for the north.

We have the Gorge in PDX metro area.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 18z 10 day snowfall totals as much as 93" mountains of southwestern BC.

[Timmy]

Wow. 18z 10 day snowfall totals as much as 93" mountains of southwestern BC.

Also give pdx snow or close to it near day 9

[Kayla]

Also give pdx snow or close to it near day 9

 

Yeah for what's it worth 18z gives PDX widespread 2-3" of snowfall on the 30th. First of many teases to come.

[Gradient Keeper]

Also give pdx snow or close to it near day 9

Yeah, real close.

[luvssnow_spokane]