November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[GobBluth]

Positive signs with the 12z in that the pacific gets shut down.

 

Until then, it's going to be a very stormy and incredible snowpack building pattern over the next 7 days.

good phrasing. it's seemed the pacific has been raging far too strong to allow for blockage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Current Base snow totals at the major Oregon resorts...

 

Mt. Bachelor 22"

Timberline      9"

Mt. Hood Meadows  7"

 

 

Bachelor looks pretty likely to open by Friday or Saturday. 

[Phil]

Not sure why Phil is being criticized honestly. While it's true that the -NAO may help us out, I doubt we see any substantial cold until the Pacific shuts down. We're all hungry for some cold, but lets not lower our standards

Thanks man. I agree with your take.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks man. I agree with your take.

 

Yeah people getting excited over the coming week or so for any kind of appreciable cold air are going to be sorely disappointed. The Willamette Valley will probably run about a +5 anomaly for this calendar week. Next week has the potential to be below average, but I won't hold my breath. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A couple very nice ensemble members toward the end. 

[Timmy]

Yeah people getting excited over the coming week or so for any kind of appreciable cold air are going to be sorely disappointed. The Willamette Valley will probably run about a +5 anomaly for this calendar week. Next week has the potential to be below average, but I won't hold my breath.

I may sound excited because I am, only because I live where I do. I don't need substantial cold or anything to get snow here, that's why I moved here. I can appreciate a good blocking pattern when I see one though. No one is claiming this to be the big one by any means. If it leads to some cold and possible snow, then great!

I can tell you the thing that I cannot understand why people get so worked up about are warm anomalies. Who freaking cares! As long as mountains are getting snow, our heating bills will be cheaper and we get to not wear a heavy jacket! Sounds like a win win win...

[Jesse]

I can tell you the thing that I cannot understand why people get so worked up about are warm anomalies. Who freaking cares! As long as mountains are getting snow, our heating bills will be cheaper and we get to not wear a heavy jacket! Sounds like a win win win...

Some people like cooler weather. Pretty straightforward.

[IbrChris]

Good signals in the teleconnections...-EPO, -PNA and -AO going into early Dec...potential for a modified blast in the Dec 2 to Dec 7 timeframe but doesn't look overly cold at this time (not a 2009 or 2013 repeat). I'd put the odds of a daily mean temp at or below 32 at PDX at around 30% during the Dec 2-Dec 7 timeframe. Energy market is definitely responding to the potential cold in the 6-10 and esp 11-15.

Might be time to dust off my PNW arctic blast teleconnection index.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I may sound excited because I am, only because I live where I do. I don't need substantial cold or anything to get snow here, that's why I moved here. I can appreciate a good blocking pattern when I see one though. No one is claiming this to be the big one by any means. If it leads to some cold and possible snow, then great!

I can tell you the thing that I cannot understand why people get so worked up about are warm anomalies. Who freaking cares! As long as mountains are getting snow, our heating bills will be cheaper and we get to not wear a heavy jacket! Sounds like a win win win...

 

I live at a similar elevation and after 5 years I developed a pretty good eye for spotting potential patterns that can deliver snow. 528 thickness is pretty much the magic number I look for. It really never fails. 

 

You can be helped with some offshore flow I believe, which I do not get...But overall the current pattern showed little potential for significant snow in the next week. Judging by the metrics that work well for me in forecasting snow at my location. 

[IbrChris]

I live at a similar elevation and after 5 years I developed a pretty good eye for spotting potential patterns that can deliver snow. 528 thickness is pretty much the magic number I look for. It really never fails. 

 

You can be helped with some offshore flow I believe, which I do not get...But overall the current pattern showed little potential for significant snow in the next week. Judging by the metrics that work well for me in forecasting snow at my location. 

I have a hunch things are going to trend markedly better region-wide in early Dec. Wouldn't be surprised to see sub 528 across most of western WA/OR on future runs over the next week or so.

 

I'm guessing you can get snow with around 530 thickness up there and about -4 or -5c 850 temp even with onshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

Some people like cooler weather. Pretty straightforward.

Going straight to your sh*t list for that one!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good signals in the teleconnections...-EPO, -PNA and -AO going into early Dec...potential for a modified blast in the Dec 2 to Dec 7 timeframe but doesn't look overly cold at this time (not a 2009 or 2013 repeat). I'd put the odds of a daily mean temp at or below 32 at PDX at around 30% during the Dec 2-Dec 7 timeframe. Energy market is definitely responding to the potential cold in the 6-10 and esp 11-15.

 

Might be time to dust off my PNW arctic blast teleconnection index.

 

I hope we have our warm up in the Dec 15-22nd timeframe...Since I will be gone. Then it can cold again...

[Jesse]

Going straight to your sh*t list for that one!

Isn't everyone on yours?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a hunch things are going to trend markedly better region-wide in early Dec. Wouldn't be surprised to see sub 528 across most of western WA/OR on future runs over the next week or so.

 

I'm guessing you can get snow with around 530 thickness up there and about -4 or -5c 850 temp even with onshore flow.

 

Yes, once thickness is above 528 than precip intensity is a big key. The best example was a day in December 2012 when I got 2" of snow with about 534 thickness and -2C 850mb temps. Winds went slack and heavy precip stalled over my location...That was during the day too... I got 2" of snow with nearly 1" of precip...So it was essentially 2" of slush. 

[IbrChris]

I hope we have our warm up in the Dec 15-22nd timeframe...Since I will be gone. Then it can cold again...

Both CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies indicate some sort of milder period (near normal to +1 F anomalies) sometime around Dec 10-20. A lot can change that far out but given the likelihood of below normals to start the month it would be a reasonable progression.

[Deweydog]

More loads, reloads, warning shots and glamour shots on the Euro!

[ShawniganLake]

Good signals in the teleconnections...-EPO, -PNA and -AO going into early Dec...potential for a modified blast in the Dec 2 to Dec 7 timeframe but doesn't look overly cold at this time (not a 2009 or 2013 repeat). I'd put the odds of a daily mean temp at or below 32 at PDX at around 30% during the Dec 2-Dec 7 timeframe. Energy market is definitely responding to the potential cold in the 6-10 and esp 11-15.

 

Might be time to dust off my PNW arctic blast teleconnection index.

I was thinking about your index this morning actually. Looks like some decent ensemble support for retrogression on the GEFS/ GEPS after day 10. 12Z GEPS was working on a SE ridge late in the run as well.

[Jesse]

More loads, reloads, warning shots and glamour shots on the Euro!

 

I don't even want to look. Nothing can beat the beauty of yesterday's.

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks nice at the end of the month.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah people getting excited over the coming week or so for any kind of appreciable cold air are going to be sorely disappointed. The Willamette Valley will probably run about a +5 anomaly for this calendar week. Next week has the potential to be below average, but I won't hold my breath. 

 

Some may be, but others are just excited to see a pattern change.

 

And most the PNW will definitely not be +5 for this week.

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe PDX's average low is now in the 30's. Seems early.

[Jesse]

I will say, any type of blockbuster mountain snow pattern (at elevations below 5,000) is a welcome change from the last two years.

[Timmy]

Yes, once thickness is above 528 than precip intensity is a big key. The best example was a day in December 2012 when I got 2" of snow with about 534 thickness and -2C 850mb temps. Winds went slack and heavy precip stalled over my location...That was during the day too... I got 2" of snow with nearly 1" of precip...So it was essentially 2" of slush.

It's November I wasn't expecting much, but maybe a dusting. I had a white thanksgiving last year! I've noticed the same parameters over the last 3 year though. We do get the gorge influence, and the benefit of being further north. You get way more precip due to orographic lift of the cascades, I am on the lee side of the coast range.

[Timmy]

Hard to believe PDX's average low is now in the 30's. Seems early.

Global warming?

[Deweydog]

I will say, any type of blockbuster mountain snow pattern (at elevations below 5,000) is a welcome change from the last two years.

Last December was not too shabby. I remember playing in about 15 inches of warm SSTA's at about 1,000 feet on Christmas Eve.

[Timmy]

Last December was not too shabby. I remember playing in about 15 inches of warm SSTA's at about 1,000 feet on Christmas Eve.

I had 8 inches fall one day and then like another 6 a couple days later. Stuck around for a couple weeks too.

 

I wish I had lived up here in feb 2013. I had just bought the place and was working on fixing it up in the middle of a substantial remodel. The snow was just a nuisance at that point, contractors couldn't get down the driveway... I brought a thermometer up and we had 72 hours at least of sub 15 degree temps, that was pretty impressive. My heating bill that month was 650$

[Jesse]

Last December was not too shabby. I remember playing in about 15 inches of warm SSTA's at about 1,000 feet on Christmas Eve.

 

That's true. I think Crater Lake also had record snowfall last December.

 

That said, seeing sustained patterns that bring snow to relatively low elevations in the mountains has been hard to come by overall. Crater Lake Lodge is 7,000 ft in elevation.

[Jesse]

Hard to believe PDX's average low is now in the 30's. Seems early.

 

At this point in 2014 and 2015 PDX had seen some fairly chilly lows! Historic winters followed.

[Timmy]

That's true. I think Crater Lake also had record snowfall last December.

 

That said, seeing sustained patterns that bring snow to relatively low elevations in the mountains has been hard to come by overall. Crater Lake Lodge is 7,000 ft in elevation.

Mark posted a graphic last winter showing places above 5000' were well above normal for snow while places belies were well below. That was a strange year for sure. I would take it over the year before. Everyone was below normal and I had a 2 dustings the whole winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had 8 inches fall one day and then like another 6 a couple days later. Stuck around for a couple weeks too.

 

I wish I had lived up here in feb 2013. I had just bought the place and was working on fixing it up in the middle of a substantial remodel. The snow was just a nuisance at that point, contractors couldn't get down the driveway... I brought a thermometer up and we had 72 hours at least of sub 15 degree temps, that was pretty impressive. My heating bill that month was 650$

 

You did better than me last December. Though I was not around for most of that period anyways. I had a 23/13 day in February 2014 which came after a 21/2 day in December 2013.

 

The most overachieving cold day I probably had was a 27/11 in January 2013. I had about 4" of snow going into that fogversion, and for about a week straight I would have clear skies at night and then fog from sunrise to sunset. 

 

Of course my snowiest winter 2011-12 I had almost 100" of snow, but never got below 23 the entire winter!

[stuffradio]

Score!

 

[Bryant]

I have a hunch things are going to trend markedly better region-wide in early Dec. Wouldn't be surprised to see sub 528 across most of western WA/OR on future runs over the next week or so.

 

I'm guessing you can get snow with around 530 thickness up there and about -4 or -5c 850 temp even with onshore flow.

Mind if I ask what your hunch is based from? I've been watching this time frame for quite a while as tropical forcing enters the EHEM, promoting height rises over the pacific. Curious as to what signs you see? Thanks

[IbrChris]

Mind if I ask what your hunch is based from? I've been watching this time frame for quite a while as tropical forcing enters the EHEM, promoting height rises over the pacific. Curious as to what signs you see? Thanks

 

A combination of things, but I would say the biggest thing is a bit more of a signal in the longer-range noise...and several runs of decent agreement in NE Pacific teleconnections (EPO, PNA) suggestive of some sort of digging trough along the west coast or across the interior west (depending on placement of offshore ridge). Looking at a cluster analysis of the Euro weeklies over the past week there's been a clear shift in member camps toward a pattern conducive to a cold west, however it still remains a minority solution set (~30%). Seeing a similar pattern now translating into the 11-15 day period in terms of both 500 mb height anomalies and teleconnections on the ensembles has bolstered confidence in the overall pattern change. Details are still to be determined.

 

Of course the biggest risk is that the cold tends to slide down into the Plains with minimal/just leakage into the interior west (which would mean little effect for western OR/WA).

[Bryant]

A combination of things, but I would say the biggest thing is a bit more of a signal in the longer-range noise...and several runs of decent agreement in NE Pacific teleconnections (EPO, PNA) suggestive of some sort of digging trough along the west coast or across the interior west (depending on placement of offshore ridge). Looking at a cluster analysis of the Euro weeklies over the past week there's been a clear shift in member camps toward a pattern conducive to a cold west, however it still remains a minority solution set (~30%). Seeing a similar pattern now translating into the 11-15 day period in terms of both 500 mb height anomalies and teleconnections on the ensembles has bolstered confidence in the overall pattern change. Details are still to be determined.

 

Of course the biggest risk is that the cold tends to slide down into the Plains with minimal/just leakage into the interior west (which would mean little effect for western OR/WA).

Appreciate the reply and the contributions you make. Hopefully we continune to see improved model runs and maybe a bit of consistency to go with them Keep us updated!

[IbrChris]

Appreciate the reply and the contributions you make. Hopefully we continune to see improved model runs and maybe a bit of consistency to go with them Keep us updated!

 

I don't tend to forecast out 30 days or seasonally, or put a lot of stock in the CFS/Weeklies beyond about 15 days...but I am encouraged when I see some semblance of agreement and what appears to be a solution that models are coalescing around. I don't mind the monthly and seasonal predictions, it's all interesting, but I don't generally put stock in them beyond just a broad-brush tendency in a year with a pronounced ENSO signal for example.

[TT-SEA]

Rainbow about 20 minutes ago...

 

[Deweydog]

Rainbow about 20 minutes ago...

 

 

Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me.  

 

Could be.   Or maybe spring is finally here!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Rainbow about 20 minutes ago...

 

how are the cherry blossoms? I assume they are getting close to blooming.

[TT-SEA]

how are the cherry blossoms? I assume they are getting close to blooming.

 

 

Just waiting for the old leaves to fall off so they can immediately begin blooming again.   Soon!