November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Fun overrunning event Wednesday on the 12z.

<_>

[luvssnow_spokane]

Overrunning events are just worthless ... BUT this is only my opinion .... Thanks for letting me share I feel much better now. Looking forward to our first snow though.

[ShawniganLake]

12z has the most snow yet through hr 228, at least for Western WA. Most of what is shown below falls Sunday night-Monday night, then some more falls with the overrunning event Thursday morning. Also has a PSCZ signature, which if it sets up, always provides the opportunity for more than what is forecast.

 

12z:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_asnow_nwus_39.png

 

6z:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112906/gfs_asnow_nwus_40.png

Do you know the resolution of these maps?

[luvssnow_spokane]

KIRO radio was talking about the snow chances for Sunday this morning on my way to work. They were really playing it down, and saying it will not be much if anything at all. If the models continue, they will surely be changing their tune. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the pattern is pretty much set now. Obviously small details will change, but it is looking like some cold air, not arctic air will be hitting us. Will probably be good for some snowflakes in the air for the lowlands, but not looking like anything significant.

Looks like it's following Jim's protocol for warning shots to a t: decently cold event that will still provide some fun, but nothing outrageous that would prevent a massive event later. A real balancing act.

 

Good job, Mother Nature.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9 serious snow potential for PDX as very strong east wind pulls Arctic air out of the Columbia Basin keeping the cold layer just thick enough. Lots of moisture moving into the area.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

[FroYoBro]

Looks like it's following Jim's protocol for warning shots to a t: decently cold event that will still provide some fun, but nothing outrageous that would prevent a massive event later. A real balancing act.

 

Good job, Mother Nature.

Just setting up the most epic January ever! 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM was awful cold air cut off up in southern BC..... outlier. Eager to see 12z GEFS

[Deweydog]

The media is setting itself up to have A LOT of blood on their hands.

[Sometimesdylan]

Crazy seeing how consistently sustained the cold has been forecasted up here. Hard to believe with the warm rain we're getting now that in a couple days things will be freezing like that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Crazy seeing how consistently sustained the cold has been forecasted up here. Hard to believe with the warm rain we're getting now that in a couple days things will be freezing like that.

It's going to be bone chilling cold for southeast Alaska standards

[Gradient Keeper]

Out in la-la land, 12z GFS shows a considerable amount of bitter air coming into the Yukon/upper BC areas. Christmas blast setting up? 

Yeahhh 850s -40c or colder.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, Morgan Palmer at KIRO wrote a post yesterday saying 'don't believe the snowflake showing up for Monday on your iPhone as it most likely won't happen', and he went on to list reason after reason for his thinking. It's one thing to be cautious, especially when we are still 5-6 days out and live in the PNW, but it seemed oddly pessimistic for the potential the models have shown at a reasonably consistent spread.

This is why they are paid for what they do... It is possible he can read the models better than us and can interpret with more accuracy. SO maybe that is why he wrote that. Then again, MAYBE NOT! We shall see.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like we could see some rather low snow levels early next week. Maybe even a freeze. You heard it here first!

[HighlandExperience]

This is why they are paid for what they do... It is possible he can read the models better than us and can interpret with more accuracy. SO maybe that is why he wrote that. Then again, MAYBE NOT! We shall see.

I don't know who he is, but quite a few tv weather personalities are not meteorologist. Many of the people on this board know more.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS 500mb anomaly shows block healthier and around 165 W suggesting future operational runs might give us a real-deal block.

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like we could see some rather low snow levels early next week. Maybe even a freeze. You heard it here first!

Freeze looks unlikely.

[HighlandExperience]

Mountains looking sexy this morning

[Gradient Keeper]

It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too!

 

[Heavy Snow]

I just woke up and need to go run errands so I'll try to include all my thoughts here. The updated run of the 12z GFS looks great. Lots of sub 522mb thickness with moisture. Also shows a nice overrunning event with offshore flow and with Eastern Washington/Oregon snow covered that should prolong the over-running event. Models are always too fast to warm us up if we have snow on the ground and so does the Eastern side of Washington and Oregon. We are getting a better idea of whats going to happen now. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/126/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/150/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/156/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/204/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/210/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

[Gradient Keeper]

9:42 PM 12z ECMWF

Begins in.... 3 minutes

 

Hoping we see a stronger, amplified ridge, good southeast US ridge

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles cooler, and long range 850mb mean now stays below 0c with cold members too. Hmmmm....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the Canadian has been pretty consistent...Just sayin'

[Jesse]

Freeze looks unlikely.

Clouds.

[Gradient Keeper]

So the Canadian has been pretty consistent...Just sayin'

Not really. The Ensembles have shown the previous 2 operational runs to be an outlier.

[Deweydog]

Clouds.

Or not enough of them...

[Timmy]

So the Canadian has been pretty consistent...Just sayin'

Consistency only counts if it's the good kind

[BLI snowman]

Clouds.

 

Wouldn't shock me to see 40/33 type numbers at PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/072/500h_anom.na.png

[HighlandExperience]

Morning run of the WRF looks better than last night. Decent snow in north Sound and east King county. Lighter amounts over Portland.

[Jesse]

Wouldn't shock me to see 40/33 type numbers at PDX.

Cross your fingers!!

[Timmy]

12z ECMWF Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/072/500h_anom.na.png

Oh no!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't think I like the progression of this run. I guess we'll find out, eh

[Deweydog]

Block looks much stronger, harder and more girthy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think I like the progression of this run. I guess we'll find out, eh

 

We are tracking something with 500' snow levels and a trace of overrunning as the best case scenario

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

We are tracking something with 500' snow levels and a trace of overrunning as the best case scenario

You'll probably see a lot of snow. Stop being such an Andrew about this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/120/500h_anom.na.png

Definitely slower on progression than the GFS.

[Bryant]

Morning run of the WRF looks better than last night. Decent snow in north Sound and east King county. Lighter amounts over Portland.

Looking good