SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 It would take a December 1919 followed by a January 1930 to make up these warm anomalies! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 It would take a December 1919 followed by a January 1930 to make up these warm anomalies!Not in Olympia! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Right now sitting at 11.85" of rain on the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 44 degrees here and breezy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I wonder if we will be able to score a freeze next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I wonder if we will be able to score a freeze next week. It will probably depend on cloud cover. The 06z trended drier, which is bad for snow chances early in the week, but better for freeze chances! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 It will probably depend on cloud cover. The 06z trended drier, which is bad for snow chances early in the week, but better for freeze chances!We probably weren't going to get snow out of this one anyway so I'll take it! I'm thinking you should see both, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 We probably weren't going to get snow out of this one anyway so I'll take it! I'm thinking you should see both, though. Yes, though honestly it is looking less and less likely I'll see significant snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z... Yep, you guessed it, blocking is stronger like ox! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z 850 temps are also colder than 6z from Monday-Wednesday.Good to hear Brian! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Game on! LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z showing more snow than 6z, in general. Moisture looks to hang around just a touch longer. This is before any overrunning with Thursday system. 12z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_asnow_nwus_30.png 6z:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113006/gfs_asnow_nwus_31.png These maps are super inaccurate btw. Most of the lowland snow is not really going to happen. It is more of a elevation issue that the model isn't picking up on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Posting more for a) showing the potential for improvement and showing the potential for more precip around than currently modeled by some runs. Obviously it will (most likely) not work out exactly as the map shows, but it helps to get an idea for any trends, PSCZ signatures, etc. I guess we can just say screw those maps? Not sure the point of them updating those if they are so inaccurate... I just wasn't sure if you were aware of that. No biggie. I'm not telling you to stop posting them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12Z Canadian is warmer and wetter than the GFS. Pick your poison. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Some good graphics on that post when it comes to ensembles. I like the one below, where most members show Seattle (metro) getting snow at some point next week. Half of the members show 2 or more inches. Obviously better chances with higher elevation/away from the water. Encouraging. He had a pretty good write up on our snow chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too. On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too. On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning.Yeah, the 12z is much improved for early next week. I noticed a small cluster of 06z ensembles making a dip toward -10c in the day 6-7 time frame and it looks like the 12z op trended that way. The whole 12z is pretty chilly. You would get buried with snow. Little doubt America would be great again if that verified. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I would say the 12z is a pretty major improvement over the 06z. Lots of potential for low snow levels in the long range too. On the 12z 850s bottom out at -8C at SLE with 518 thickness. It also brought back more moisture Sunday night/Monday morning. Overrunning possibilities continue to look good, too. Holding onto the east wind next Wednesday would make a few hours of accumulating snow a good bet for most of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 At this point most models show us staying pretty chilly/La Nina-y throughout most of the extended with flirtations of low snow levels on/off. That's saying a whole lot more than anything we've had the past 4 years. Nice to see regardless of any snow next week, IMO.I agree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z GFS coldest anomalies yet . Ridge was the strongest yet too. I noticed the low moving up from Hawaii developed a bit further west and as well the ridge in the plains was more robust. This run was the closest yet to a modified blast. You have to like the trend with the ridge becoming just a bit stronger, healthier/robust every run. Let's keep that going with the next 3-4 runs. The key is that low developing just northwest of Hawaii. This run as I mentioned it developing further northwest, didn't "weigh" down the western periphery of the block holding it in place longer, plus the ridge in the central US helped a lot. Also, the GEFS keeps the mean ridge position in the GOA and as long as it remains blocky out there our chances for cold/arctic air is always promising. The long range is real chilly, especially north of OLM/SEA so much jet suppression we almost score big time. Kind of reminds me of the old time patterns of the 1800's. 12z ECMWFBegins in.... NOWIs this the run the EURO shifts towards the GFS with a stronger, healthier block? I hope so.Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z GFS Ensembles. Best yet. Mean temps have dipped, colder members. The GFS has been remarkably consistent and improved every run. Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 At this point most models show us staying pretty chilly/La Nina-y throughout most of the extended with flirtations of low snow levels on/off. That's saying a whole lot more than anything we've had the past 4 years. Nice to see regardless of any snow next week, IMO.Absolutely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Global wave pattern may be slowing, now at 5. It was at 6 three days ago. A less progressive pattern would favor us now that the GOA block may be a dominant theme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 WRF much colder. 925mb temps -15c to -18c Columbia Basin. That will really help out PDX with any possible overrunning/transition events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The 12Z CMC shows tons of snow for WA/OR and SW BC through 10 days. Low resolution though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 WRF much colder. 925mb temps -15c to -18c Columbia Basin. That will really help out PDX with any possible overrunning/transition events.Definitely a very noticeable difference. The -8 925mb line also gets close to Seattle Tuesday morning. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z ECMWF Day 3 - I see no improvements yet with EURO http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12Z GFS looks really good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/096/500h_anom.na.pngreally a completely different way out in the pacific than the gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Complex pattern. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Compared to 12z yesterday the top of the block is a bit beefier, and healthier overall 12z yesterdayhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_7.png and today. May favor a bit better tilthttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016113012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I just looked at the updated run of the 12z GFS and it shows a classic overrunning event on Wednesday night. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Perhaps some slight improvements.... trending towards GFS? Not sure about that yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I just looked at the updated run of the 12z GFS and it shows a classic overrunning event on Wednesday night. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.pngLikely.WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Complex pattern.Hot take! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z ECMWF Looks like arctic air digging back into eastern WA better on this run piling up against the Canadian Rockies trying to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Likely.WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif Yeah, the East Winds will be roaring for sure. Not to mention areas east of the Cascades will be below freezing with lots of snow cover which should delay the transition to rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Likely.WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gifThat's a sexy map. Too bad it's 7 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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