November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Round two?... 

 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Complex pattern.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking like the overrunning event will be followed by another cold shot. Perfect!

 

Friday...

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Complex pattern.

 

Down to 36 now, watch for icy spots!

[Weather101]

I know... just sharing... thanks

It isn't January

[Deweydog]

Windstorm next Thursday night???

[luvssnow_spokane]

It isn't January

Oops!  crap!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Windstorm next Thursday night???

Please! 

[Jesse]

Windstorm next Thursday night???

Hopefully an east wind storm. If it's south wind storm that's a pretty good indication that this run went to .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh Lord

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_36.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already have the chains on! Watch out for the sparks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like the snow pack may be above normal soon...

[Deweydog]

Oh Lord

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_36.png

Yep... more L's than H's.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully an east wind storm. If it's south wind storm that's a pretty good indication that this run went to s**t.

South. But I don't think it's the end of the world.

[Timmy Supercell]

Crap... back to drought talk and how you miss the rain so much?   

 

lol missing the rain in 3rd person perspective before it stops raining? Gotta wrap my mind around that one...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December looks to start wet!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dec. 96' redux?

[BLI snowman]

Hopefully an east wind storm. If it's south wind storm that's a pretty good indication that this run went to s**t.

This run shows probably a couple inches of overrunning snow on Wednesday.

[chopper 918]

Does this run qualify as a warning shot?

[EA_TTD]

December looks to start wet!

http://press.hotels.com/en-us/files/2014/02/Hotels.com_Captain_Obvious_LockedUp.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Strangest 500mb pattern days 4-8 from any run yet. Looks like the GFS has no handle on the pattern to me, unless others look similar with the goofy cut-off lows, etc. One thing I guess that was good is the ridge held decent and nearly merged with the new Aleutian ridge much sooner. 00z GEM was decent, but not bone chilling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run shows probably a couple inches of overrunning snow on Wednesday.

 

December 94' redux.

[Deweydog]

Hour 300!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Funny thing is a week ago we would have been sh*tting ourselves looking at that ridge in AK. Don't think I'd write it off yet considering it's hour 96.

Agreed. Lots for models to resolve the next few days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Arctic front. Hope my flight doesn't get delayed that evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

[Phil]

That's a lot of cold air in west-central Canada in the clown range.

[Timmy Supercell]

Dec. 96' redux?

 

That winter I most entirely missed down here, with only 15.80" at one of the stations. lol

[luvssnow_spokane]

just like many of the other model runs tonight it still looking pretty in lala land... Check out that mother load fridgeness to our north.... hmmmm ...

 

 

[BLI snowman]

December 94' redux.

That overrunning snow was from a weak clipper from the NW, though. It didn't really scour us out.

 

But a very similar airmass all the same. Probably another best case scenario analog.

[Jesse]

South. But I don't think it's the end of the world.

Do you think anything is?

[Phil]

What hell is going on w/ the NPAC wavetrain in the LR?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That overrunning snow was from a weak clipper from the NW, though. It didn't really scour us out.

 

But a very similar airmass all the same. Probably another best case scenario analog.

 

I've been saying 92 and 94'. I think 92' is off the table at this point.

[ShawniganLake]

That winter I most entirely missed down here, with only 15.80" at one of the stations. lol

Victoria had more than that in about 4 hrs on December 29th 1996

[luvssnow_spokane]

What hell is going on w/ the NPAC wavetrain?

agreed ... it is just weird.

[chopper 918]

What hell is going on w/ the NPAC wavetrain?

 

Usually anything past hour 144 is BS.

[ShawniganLake]

That's a lot of cold air in west-central Canada in the clown range.

Hard to believe that will verify. Looks insane.

[Phil]

Usually anything past hour 144 is BS.

Yeah, but this is super-BS IMO.

 

At least in regards to the NPAC in week 2.

[Gradient Keeper]

I have never seen a model show central-southern BC/AB this cold ever......

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120100/gfs_T850_nwus_53.png

[Deweydog]

Do you think anything is?

Dixie Chicks.

[Deweydog]

I have never seen a model show central-southern BC/AB this cold ever......

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120100/gfs_T850_nwus_53.png

January 2011.