Jump to content

Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I forgot the term, but JB talks about systems producing a planetary wave connection...this 500mb pattern is exactly that...would be the biggest trough of the season...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017013112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Hey, they've had their "down time"...it only makes sense for them to get hit with another major...#Sarcasim

 

Here Blizzard, Blizzard...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017013112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_9.png

 

#shipwreckerstorm :blink:

 

If only we could call this in like you posted. Neg NAO went out to lunch and hasn't been seen for weeks! What happened to our CO bowling ball season?? :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

I haven't looked at the models in probably 3 weeks. It's crazy how useless it seems to be this year -- one day you'll see the storm parade, the very next day, BAM. Gone. A zonal flow without the snow. Craziest part is that the storm parade has been nearly non-existant, other than some rain-makers.

 

Yesterday we came up close to hitting 60 degrees; it couldn't have felt any better. I loved it, and I am done with winter. I'm so ready for Spring to overrule this atrocity of a snowless winter and brown grass, it seriously cannot get here soon enough #MakeAmericaGreenAgain

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

I think the only way to change the patern is "summerize" my snow blowers!!! Never fails every time I pump the gas out of them snow is sure to follow......LOL

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
  • Author
Posted

3 pieces. Two tailing in a north/south branch fashion. And a lead wave in the lower central lakes. Eventually, the rear two consolidate over Iowa and leads to a long duration event over the northern lakes. Looks like it's gonna be a good one to track, although I think I'm too far south to get any of the good stuff.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

How does the Bering sea rule correlate with this storm ?

 

Favorable signal for a strong storm around the 9th. Placement is never a 1:1 correlation though as it had it going well south to the Mid-Atlantic region. LIke I posted days ago, nice compromise would be to hit MI ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Looks like it shifted SE a bit...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020100/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

 

 

00z EPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

 

Seems so, at least on the EPS.   So, why the huge difference with 850 temps between these two maps over SMI? Can you break that down pls?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 2118

      May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

      Looks like the 12z GFS is going with a quicker crash later this week, with Thursday being cool now. Nice to see and hopefully the other models follow this. Also shows today and tomorrow being close to the same temp in the Portland area. So upper 70s although it wouldn’t surprise me to see PDX pull off a rogue 80 one of the days.
      • 1
      • Phil's Mom
      Cascadia_Wx in West of the Rockies
    2. 1177

      2024-2025 California and Southwest Weather Thread

      Looks like the cloud deck is not as thick this morning even with a deeper marine layer.
      Anti Marine Layer in West of the Rockies
    3. 7812

      Polite Politics

      I am hearing that we could have some similarities to 1968 in terms of DNC
      Iceresistance in Off Topic
    4. 7812

      Polite Politics

      This is not anything like 2016. Trump was still relatively unknown in the political sphere, with many voters unsure how he would ultimately act and carry himself as president. This allowed for a bit of a "well maybe he'll change his attitude once he has the gravity of the presidential office around him" that more moderate voters convinced themselves as they held their nose and voted for him. Pair that unknown quantity with a Hillary Clinton campaign that figured they could just coast to victory because surely nobody would vote for that crazy guy over there, and you have yourself a good recipe for a surprise electoral whalloping. There will be no real surprises here. Biden and Trump are known quantities. Their strengths, their weaknesses, their temperaments, how they govern, their base of support. It's all pretty much baked in at this point. The only possibility for a surprise is third party candidates and whether RFK will play spoiler to one or the other. That being said, there is always the hubub around third parties in the run-up to the election but rarely do they end up actually making a difference. One could argue Jill Stein spoiled some typical Blue Wall states in 2016 but again, I'd place the majority of that blame on Hillary Clinton being an incredibly uninspiring candidate and taking many votes for granted. To be clear: I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm saying it most likely won't. Biden is still the favorite to squeak out a win, in my book. My only hope is that a fourth election loss in a row will finally be enough to wake up my party so that we can move on from this toxic Trump brand. It's probably a pipe dream but it's about the only hope I have at this point.
      • 1
      • Like
      hawkstwelve in Off Topic
    5. 7812

      Polite Politics

      I remember that, they went to sleep thinking that Hillary would sweep the election. Only to wake up that Trump won
      Iceresistance in Off Topic
×
×
  • Create New...