December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Could someone cut the power to the GFS... A reboot is in order... Totally different evolution than the Euro...

[Brennan]

Does anyone have the numbers for the verification percentages in the 4-7 day range for both the GFS and EURO? Has EURO been superior this year so far?

 

It's amazing the difference a day can make. Yesterday the GFS had the entire east coast under a huge ridge next wednesday. Today it shows a huge trough from intermountain west to east coast. 

[Heavy Snow]

The GFS has a warm bias in these types of situations. I've seen this before a million times. The GFS will trend towards KING EURO in the coming days.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Bainbridge Island. Sea level.  Well basically sea level.  Great place to live.  Not so great for snow.

Exactly.  It sucks.

[luvssnow_spokane]

epic!

 

 

[MossMan]

Looks like Drunk Uncle gonna warm us up nicely... AND quick @ hr144

I don't like him anymore...the lowlife needs to get a real job and quit toying with our emotions.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GFS has a warm bias in these types of situations. I've seen this before a million times. The GFS will trend towards KING EURO in the coming days.

Warm? it is like a fricken heatwave bias.... It not just that but the pattern is completely different.

[Randyc321]

Exactly.  It sucks.

I'm right by the ferry and Winslow.  You?

[Deweydog]

The GFS has a warm bias in these types of situations. I've seen this before a million times. The GFS will trend towards KING EURO in the coming days.

This is absolutely true until it isn't.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going with whatever model shows more snow!

[HighlandExperience]

Here is what the fat a** GFS is sayin to us now!!

 

]

Typical Trump voter

[BLI snowman]

GFS shuffles all the cold air far eastward after Day 7. Progressive as ever.

[Heavy Snow]

Warm? it is like a fricken heatwave bias.... It not just that but the pattern is completely different.

This is absolutely true until it isn't.

 

Based on my observations in the past, the GFS is always too quick to rush in the warmer air when there's decent Cold air in place. There's a lot of Cold to work with and the GFS is too aggressive IMHO shoving it east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Screw this GFS! Bring on the EURO!

[BLI snowman]

Long range looks like a +EPO mess. Very poor run to run consistency starting around the 7th, big divergence in the hemispheric pattern from that day on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Based on my observations in the past, the GFS is always too quick to rush in the warmer air when there's decent Cold air in place. There's a lot of Cold to work with and the GFS is too aggressive IMHO shoving it east.

 

If the progressive pattern shown on the GFS develops it will certainly shove the cold air out very quickly...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range looks like a +EPO mess. Very poor run to run consistency starting around the 7th, big divergence in the hemispheric pattern from that day on.

 

What would CLIMO tell us

[luvssnow_spokane]

What would CLIMO tell us

Our worst nightmares will come true. 

[Phil]

The GFS often has a progressive wavetrsin bias over North America, however all of the modeling (including the ECMWF/EPS) trended that way today, save the operational GGEM. The GFS is still the most progressive of all the modeling, which isn't very surprising I guess, since it usually seems to be.

[liquidsnow]

What would CLIMO tell us

 

http://37.media.tumblr.com/d6f35ec785eaa1957daf60a951e3bf02/tumblr_n6fpe2Z1281s8uzeno3_250.gif

 

Nah, Climo would probably tell us that IT'S ****ING BURNT!

 

 

Hey Phil, are you telling us it's game over? Are we screwed?

[Deweydog]

Long range looks like a +EPO mess. Very poor run to run consistency starting around the 7th, big divergence in the hemispheric pattern from that day on.

 

A progressive agenda was NOT the will of the people.  

[BLI snowman]

What would CLIMO tell us

 

After a long lived national torch in late October and November like we just had, I would certainly expect a little more long lived full latitude blocking these next couple weeks. GFS goes right back into the November turd pattern pretty fast on this run. 

[Phil]

Lol, compact vort right over Alaska. Sometimesdylan will like this run.

[BLI snowman]

A progressive agenda was NOT the will of the people.  

 

Sanders would get his way with this run. 

[stuffradio]

What would CLIMO tell us

Sunshine and cherry blossoms!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is interesting is the GFS ensembles are all on board with a big wet warmup too...

 

My gut tells me the GFS is onto something. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After a long lived national torch in late October and November like we just had, I would certainly expect a little more long lived full latitude blocking these next couple weeks. GFS goes right back into the November turd pattern pretty fast on this run. 

 

Obviously things will change in January.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 18z was the worst run yet while 12z Euro was the best run yet. Completely polar opposites... Consistency!  <_ irrational fear says the reboot of euro really messed with it and gfs is on to something.>

[χιόνι (chióni)]

I'm right by the ferry and Winslow.  You?

3.5 miles north of ferry right off Hwy 305.

[Deweydog]

The 18z was the worst run yet while 12z Euro was the best run yet. Completely polar opposites... Consistency!  <_>

 

Irony is, there isn't THAT big a difference between the two.  

[MossMan]

What is interesting is the GFS ensembles are all on board with a big wet warmup too...

 

My gut tells me the GFS is onto something.

Your gut needs more European fiber.

[Brennan]

Irony is, there isn't THAT big a difference between the two.  

 

Small details make all the difference with our fragile shithole of a location for snow/cold weather. 

[Phil]

After a long lived national torch in late October and November like we just had, I would certainly expect a little more long lived full latitude blocking these next couple weeks. GFS goes right back into the November turd pattern pretty fast on this run.

I think the regime progged by the LR GFS (et al) is different than the giant +EPO/+WPO/+PNA which dominated all of October and November (though, that pattern will return at some point).

 

Looks closer to something like 2014/15 or 1993/94, with the +NAO/western ridge.

[BLI snowman]

What is interesting is the GFS ensembles are all on board with a big wet warmup too...

 

My gut tells me the GFS is onto something. 

 

"We are definitely due for some warm, wet weather"- Jesse

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, Hadley Cells!!!

[BLI snowman]

I think the regime progged by the LR GFS (et al) is different than the giant +EPO/+WPO/+PNA which dominated all of October and November (though, that pattern will return at some point).

 

Looks closer to something like 2014/15 or 1993/94, with the +NAO/western ridge.

 

Yeah, by the long long range it morphs into your prototypical skip past the West block. Sexy run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On to the 12z EURO!

[Phil]

Strike that, clown range reverts back into the emulation of a super niño again. We just spent two months wiggling out of that system state, and it took an unprecedented smack to the PV and resultant equatorial tropopausal cooling to ignite the MJO wave that finished it off. Lolz.

[Front Ranger]

All I can say is, is that I'm glad I don't live in Roseburg. One the worst non-coastal locations for snow in the PNW. That, and my old hometown near Aurora. 

 

My parents live near there and did ok last winter. I think three separate snowfalls in Nov/Dec for a total of 7-8".

[Jesse]

Any word on Euro ensembles? I've been in class all day.