December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[westcoastexpat]

All you guys with snow are lucky!

 

Soon everyone will be jealous of all the snow you'll be getting 

[Timmy]

Latest hrrr's have trended a little more bullish for snow Nw oregon and even the metro area. Especially for my area.

[Jesse]

Latest hrrr's have trended a little more bullish for snow Nw oregon and even the metro area. Especially for my area.

Nice. I hope Mark eats crow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precipitation is the thing that really sticks out to me while still keeping it cold to extremely cold.

 

Historically it is a pattern that persists a lot more in January than early December, so hopefully it shows up again later in the winter too. 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 18z GFS is hinting of another modified Arctic Blast around Day 10. 

[crf450ish]

Going to Metaline Falls Wednesday morning to look at a tractor. 90 miles from my house. Wife and I are going to make a mini road trip out of it while the kids are in school. Hopefully we run into some below zero temps. I will try to snap a few low quality iPhone pics on the way 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice. I hope Mark eats crow.

 

He says its going to be all about precip rates.

[crf450ish]

Soon everyone will be jealous of all the snow you'll be getting 

That poor dude deserves some serious snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is the resolution on the HRRR?

[HighlandExperience]

That poor dude deserves some serious snow.

We are snow starved

[Timmy]

What is the resolution on the HRRR?

Seems comparable to the 1 1/3km of the wrf.

 

Maybe a little lower http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016120422&fh=16&xpos=0&ypos=170

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 18z NAM is faster with the arrival of the over-running event. It has the precipitation just about to arrive at PDX Metro around Wednesday 4pm. Then through hour 84 all snow still for much of the Willamette Valley and North.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120418/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_50.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120418/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_51.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120418/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

[Timmy]

I have a report of snow near my house at 1300' I won't be home until late but it sounds like it's on. Now we just need some precip

[Phil]

With this much arctic air, doesn't it take an act of god to flush it out? Or can it be swept away with ease?

Lol, either that or a big, fat GOA vortex.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!

 

The 18z ensemble looks like a 2 year old kid got ahold of some crayons. Some wildly cold members to say the least. At face value the 18z has a nice snow event for Seattle around day 10.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome sunset tonight....

 

 

 

[Phil]

Awesome pics dude. Jealous.

[Deweydog]

That is crazy gorgeous.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Those pics are from last year tim.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS snowfall maps show the area from Tacoma to Everett doing very well over the next 10 days. Main events look to be tomorrow morning, tomorrow evening and then around day 9 to day 10. Shows Seattle getting a foot total.

[crf450ish]

Awesome sunset tonight....

 

 

 

Dude you've got some seriously privileged views. I feel compelled to beat these photographs   I'll have to ride the snowmobile up to the top of a nearby foothill near my house at sunrise on a clear morning after a fresh snowfall and see what I can get. 

[snow_wizard]

Awesome sunset tonight....

 

 

 

Those D**n near look like post card shots. Beautiful. I thought you were probably getting it good...I saw the clouds over your way.

[Kayla]

Gorgeous!!

[HighlandExperience]

The 18z GFS snowfall maps show the area from Tacoma to Everett doing very well over the next 10 days. Main events look to be tomorrow morning, tomorrow evening and then around day 9 to day 10. Shows Seattle getting a foot total.

 

Very nice. Hope tomorrow overachieves up here. Crossing fingers. 

[TT-SEA]

Those pics are from last year tim.

 

Those are from 20 minutes ago.   

[crf450ish]

Whens the last time we experienced one over running event after another until winter was over?

[Weather101]

Whens the last time we experienced one over running event after another until winter was over?

1657

[Deweydog]

Whens the last time we experienced one over running event after another until winter was over?

2006-2014.

[TT-SEA]

Roads have froze up already... 31 here and clear right now.

[crf450ish]

1657

Seems legit comparing that year to the last grand solar minimum. 

[crf450ish]

2006-2014.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[snow_wizard]

NWS going for up to 4 inches tomorrow night for East Puget Sound lowlands. Then lows 15 to 22 Tuesday night. D**n good warning shot. I think the C-Zone will be a sliding type as the Arctic front pushes south. They may have to up the predictions for Tacoma to Seattle.

[Jbolin]

1657

Lol, but I think perhaps 1912 might be a candidate?

[snow_wizard]

Whens the last time we experienced one over running event after another until winter was over?

1865-66 was a winter that had repeated bouts of cold / snow throughout separated by brief warm periods. Perhaps the closest to what you are asking about.

[crf450ish]

NWS going for up to 4 inches tomorrow night for East Puget Sound lowlands. Then lows 15 to 22 Tuesday night. D**n good warning shot. I think the C-Zone will be a sliding type as the Arctic front pushes south. They may have to up the predictions for Tacoma to Seattle.

HOLY S***! The last time I seen lows that low in western wa was in 2009 in Edgewood. It was 12F @ 7am......

 

 

EDIT: Excuse me.... it was December of 2009....precisely December 8th it was 10 degrees, followed by TWO more days of lows of 10 degrees! https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPLU/2009/12/4/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=Edgewood&req_state=WA&reqdb.zip=98354&reqdb.magic=2&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

 

 

Remember folks, I grew up in western Washington. Where I reside now doesn't precede my childhood weather experiences. I am seriously rooting for y'all to get slammed. I love it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well I've finally done it...December 4, 2016: 32 degrees.

[Kayla]

He says its going to be all about precip rates.

 

Hearing about reports of rain/snow mix down to the valley floor already. Precipitation is also looking more and more heavier and steadier in nature early tomorrow morning. Still like PDX's chances for sticking snow of up around 1".

 

Going to be plenty of surprises (and disappointments) by this time tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Down to 43 at PDX.

[FroYoBro]

Well I've finally done it...December 4, 2016: 32 degrees.

               

[seattleweatherguy]

NWS going for up to 4 inches tomorrow night for East Puget Sound lowlands. Then lows 15 to 22 Tuesday night. D**n good warning shot. I think the C-Zone will be a sliding type as the Arctic front pushes south. They may have to up the predictions for Tacoma to Seattle.

Is that me? I get this confused