December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models are still all over the place. Way too early to call one way or the other.

 

A clear trend.

[Front Ranger]

Not sure where you're getting that, every model shows us 28-29 doing the initial precip. I think you're underestimating the strength of the outflow. I suspect most of the area will see more than 2", although I agree that the precip will likely be a little lighter than modeled, if anything.  

 

And the NAM is garbage. 

 

It handled the last system best, as far as lower level temps and accumulations.

 

Granted, that wasn't an outflow situation, so probably not applicable to the upcoming storm as much.

[chopper 918]

Well, a gargantuan, steroidal +NAO vortex will always be detrimental to meridional streamflow over the US. I mean, look at this thing. It's seemingly dominating the entire hemispheric wavetrain. Good lord..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CC4DDAC4-BC21-4299-8B41-F74DECBF05D5_zpsywyhwntb.png

 

Yeah, just look at it!

[Front Ranger]

A clear trend.

 

With one model.

[BLI snowman]

Both the 0z GEM and Euro were pretty cold for next week. 

 

Too early to call.

 

To be clear, I'm talking about the Monday to Thursday stuff next week. After the 15th it's a little messier. 

 

The GEM hasn't looked good with that either, and I expect the Euro to hop on board with them and move the airmass a little further east on its next runs. 

[BLI snowman]

We'll see. I'm envisioning temps generally 31-33 when precip begins followed by a little wet bulb cooling. Not bad at all, but not as optimal if precip began at or just before sunrise.

 

With the tanked dewpoints, I'm not sure it matters too much. Either way we'll see the roads get bad in a hurry and it's looking less likely that we get above 32-33 during the entire day now. If anything the travel impact looks worse  now if schools and businesses stay open through the morning and you have people rushing to get home during the heaviest snow.

[Phil]

Yeah, just look at it!

Horrible snow pattern for everyone in the country really, except those living in the Lake Effect snowbelts. We call it "suppression depression" here..basically squashes everything into oblivion.

 

That said, someone downwind of the Great Lakes is going to rake in 6-8+ feet of snow there over the next 10 days. I'm considering a snow chase out there next week.

[Deweydog]

Could be a wallowing Wednesday coming up. Might have to bust out the JMA to cheer everuone up!

[Front Ranger]

Speaking of the Canadian, it looks like a hybrid of the Euro/GFS, with the approaching low a little closer and weaker than GFS. Very juicy.

[FroYoBro]

Could be a wallowing Wednesday coming up. Might have to bust out the JMA to cheer everuone up!

 

I'm not sure why. I am pretty pumped about seeing snow tomorrow. We have to celebrate anything we can manage to get in the lowlands. 

[catnip]

Speaking of the Canadian, it looks like a hybrid of the Euro/GFS, with the approaching low a little closer and weaker than GFS. Very juicy.

 

Time for the Canadian to Dethrone the European!

[Jesse]

Could be a wallowing Wednesday coming up. Might have to bust out the JMA to cheer everuone up!

I think you enjoy forum wide depressions more than snow events.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm sticking to my guns.  5-7" widespread for Western Washington, with a transition to rain--probably not happening until Friday, early afternoon.  9-12" for Hood Canal with no transition to rain.  Even the swamp is going to get at least 2". 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the Canadian keeps most people north of Seattle snow through Friday night at least.

[Deweydog]

I'm not sure why. I am pretty pumped about seeing snow tomorrow. We have to celebrate anything we can manage to get in the lowlands.

Hellz yes.

[ShawniganLake]

6z Gfs had Fraser river outflow for the next 7-10 days. There could be several chances farther north in the PNW.

[MossMan]

Last night was so great with the Euro, now we are putting 100% on one model run, the 12zGFS and calling for a massive warm up and winter cancels!! Love this forum!!!

[Jbolin]

I'm sticking to my guns.  5-7" widespread for Western Washington, with a transition to rain--probably not happening until Friday, early afternoon.  9-12" for Hood Canal with no transition to rain.  Even the swamp is going to get at least 2". 

I commend your positivity and confidence

[Skagit Weather]

Nice 21 low up here this morning. I was hoping we could drop into the teens, but winds picked up a bit after 6 am to keep temps up. Currently 25/17 spread.

[Deweydog]

I think you enjoy forum wide depressions more than snow events.

Whatever. It is what it is. I have no idea why people would be depressed even if it only snows for 20 minutes tomorrow.

 

January is coming.

[Front Ranger]

To be clear, I'm talking about the Monday to Thursday stuff next week. After the 15th it's a little messier. 

 

The GEM hasn't looked good with that either, and I expect the Euro to hop on board with them and move the airmass a little further east on its next runs. 

 

I'm not sure what you were expecting, at least down there. There has never been any consensus for a region-wide Arctic event next week. Just occasional hints at possibilities from a run or two, but no consistency.

 

It definitely looks like it could still stay chilly and cold enough for snow at times for some. Outflow bonanza!

[Jesse]

Whatever. It is what it is. I have no idea why people would be depressed even if it only snows for 20 minutes tomorrow.

 

January is coming.

I'm excited for it to snow tomorrow. This morning is beautifully frosty too.

[Geos]

Looks like the Canadian keeps most people north of Seattle snow through Friday night at least.

 

Was just looking at that. Crazy

 

 

[liquidsnow]

Last night was so great with the Euro, now we are putting 100% on one model run, the 12zGFS and calling for a massive warm up and winter cancels!! Love this forum!!!

 

It's odd how Phil always seems to return whenever the models turn to s**t.

 

Most people on here were clamoring and begging for some snow last week....and you will get snow! Who cares whether or not next week turns mild.

[Phil]

I need to stop looking at the clown range GooFuS. What a terrible model. Always tries to blow up EPAC/WHEM tropical convection. Also have no idea how it manages a full blown NPAC jet extension without a favorable background WAF field for it, but whatever.

[BLI snowman]

WRF shows precip starting after 1pm for the Portland area now.

[Jbolin]

It's odd how Phil always seems to return whenever the models turn to s**t.

Spot on mate 

[Phil]

It's odd how Phil always seems to return whenever the models turn to s**t.

Uh, I had two final exams yesterday (one in topology which I failed the last go around), and a job interview on Monday.

 

What the actual f**k?

[FroYoBro]

WRF shows precip starting after 1pm for the Portland area now.

 

My snow day tomorrow is looking less likely. Can't wait to drive home in blowing snow and stalled traffic! 

[BLI snowman]

I'm not sure what you were expecting, at least down there. There has never been any consensus for a region-wide Arctic event next week. Just occasional hints at possibilities from a run or two, but no consistency.

 

It definitely looks like it could still stay chilly and cold enough for snow at times for some. Outflow bonanza!

 

Yeah, I'm talking about the backdoor potential which the GFS has been consistent in showing for Monday-Wednesday. The 12z is the worst run yet, but there is still some outflow potential with the potent high pressure off to the NNE. There's still some chance for an event but a high impact snowstorm or cold airmass is certainly looking dim. 

[Jesse]

Spot on mate

Not transparent.

[Kayla]

I'm thinking two inches at best, maybe more at typically favored spots, and with midday/wet bulb temps right around freezing and precip rates pretty unremarkable I don't see it being as impactful as thought this time yesterday.

 

Good thoughts here... You think the Euro is overdoing precip amounts?

 

It is interesting now that 850 and 925 temps look to stay below freezing into Friday 12z now though...

[liquidsnow]

Uh, I had two final exams yesterday (one in topology which I failed the last go around), and a job interview on Monday.

 

What the actual f**k?

 

Here's a picture of Vancouver on a snowy Monday morning.

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I'm talking about the backdoor potential which the GFS has been consistent in showing for Monday-Wednesday. The 12z is the worst run yet, but there is still some outflow potential with the potent high pressure off to the NNE. There's still some chance for an event but a high impact snowstorm or cold airmass is certainly looking dim. 

 

Canadian looks interesting.

 

[Jbolin]

Spot on mate 

In fairness though, DJ and Snowiz seem to disappear when the models seem to go to so, perspective?

[Deweydog]

Not transparent.

He should be banned outside of -PNA summer months.

 

People are being hypersensitive. His analyses are pretty consistent. Somewhat scattered and annoyingly cryptic but consistent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking very busty

[Phil]

Spot on mate

I was here over the weekend, Monday, and early this morning.

 

The idea that Dewey and I are closet sadists has been rehashed here repeatedly..it's a hilarious tradition of sorts but completely untrue in reality.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My snow day tomorrow is looking less likely. Can't wait to drive home in sideways rain and stalled traffic! 

 

Fixed it for you!

[BLI snowman]

Canadian looks interesting.

 

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Yeah, big windstorm for Portland and wet snow north of Seattle.  Models have been pretty consistent in showing that energy hitting the coast midweek next week, so there's still some potential for a surprise with it.