December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Every degree that they warm from here is one inch less of snow for tomorrow.

 

Could be down to 9 inches if we're not careful.  

[Winterdog]

Total snow for the next 10 days per the ECMWF in Seattle went from almost 12 inches on the 00Z run to less than 2 inches on the 12Z run.

 

Approximately 5 different snow events vanished between the 00Z run and the 12Z run.

 

At least it ripped the band-aid off fast!

Trouble is it left no time for a scab to form and we are left with a weeping p*** filled void.

[Deweydog]

Geesh, it's early December. There will be multiple oppprtunities for deep western troughing this winter, and episodic anticyclonic wavebreaking into Alaska will a theme through March at least, probably into April..lol. You guys have plenty of winter coming.

 

Transparent horseshit!!!

[Jesse]

PDX should hit 40 pretty easily today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just wanted to add this for all the new guys on here. Anytime you have a battle between north and south energy, cold and warm if you will there will be wild swings with the models. Its always been this way and sometimes we can get nailed hard. Someone between portland and vancuver is going to get hit hard. 1996 comes to mind right now..

[Phil]

I didn't see my first snowflake until mid-January last winter. You guys will be fine.

 

The mood in here is baffling, especially considering there is some winter weather on the way in the near term.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Geesh, it's early December. There will be multiple oppprtunities for deep western troughing this winter, and episodic anticyclonic wavebreaking into Alaska will a theme through March at least, probably into April..lol. You guys have plenty of winter coming.

Dear Lord...  <_ it heard been there>

[Phil]

Transparent horseshit!!!

What can I say..I just can't help myself.

[Jbolin]

I didn't see my first snowflake until mid-January last winter. You guys will be fine.

 

The mood in here is baffling, especially considering there is some winter weather on the way in the near term.

Especially considering it's NOT even winter yet?

[FroYoBro]

Every degree that they warm from here is one inch less of snow for tomorrow.

Andrew agrees.

[Jesse]

I didn't see my first snowflake until mid-January last winter. You guys will be fine.

 

The mood in here is baffling, especially considering there is some winter weather on the way in the near term.

That is just the nature of this forum. I have nothing to complain about right now. We finally got a freeze, the weather is crisp and clear and we probably have snow on the way tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

Feels like this place is bordering on a meltdown right now. 

 

It's December 7 and most on the forum are likely to get at least some accumulating snow in the next couple days. This isn't a Nino year either like the last two winters, so it's highly unlikely we get a third consecutive mid-January start to spring. Still lots of time to go.

 

Right. 

 

And something important to remember: the models really struggle sometimes in overrunning situations. There really is no way to know exactly how this will play out until tomorrow, but most people are likely to see some snow, and some people will probably see more than *name a model* is showing right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this has a chance to verify...

 

[BLI snowman]

I didn't see my first snowflake until mid-January last winter. You guys will be fine.

 

The mood in here is baffling, especially considering there is some winter weather on the way in the near term.

 

Welcome to the forum! Solid first post!

[Timmy]

mark got his forks out,  https://fox12weather.wordpress.com

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen just called BUST!

[Front Ranger]

Just wanted to add this for all the new guys on here. Anytime you have a battle between north and south energy, cold and warm if you will there will be wild swings with the models. Its always been this way and sometimes we can get nailed hard. Someone between portland and vancuver is going to get hit hard. 1996 comes to mind right now..

 

It's definitely a setup that favors areas further north (especially with a weak air mass like this), but Portland can sometimes do surprisingly well, too.

 

South of Portland this will probably be a non-event.

[Front Ranger]

Mark Nelsen just called BUST!

 

On himself from yesterday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Funny Mark's forecast looks exactly like mine yesterday (Which I will take credit for due to the models looking much better yesterday), but I have seen this before. Just no way this setup produces a major storm in the valley. Some widespread minor accumulations are possible, but 4-6" in the heart of the metro. Come on. 

[Heavy Snow]

For the snow/ice event tomorrow. Don't be surprised if the moisture arrives earlier than scheduled. One of the systems in February 2014 arrived 6 hours early and this past January 3 2016, the moisture got here early by 3-5 hours I think. Just something to watch out for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On himself from yesterday?

 

He should have known better than to go all in yesterday. To my seasoned eye this was obvious.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Although the mood swings on this forum tend to go from one extreme to another, you can't blame us for being upset that this event now looks less than stellar.

 

After the past few winters, the dud that was Monday, next week fading, and now tomorrow/Friday fading, people are going to (rightfully) be frustrated. I agree calling #wintercancel is a little much though.

 

Agree... But to be fair I have not seen anyone calling for a winter cancel, yet.  Although, I am skeptical but honestly hopeful

[Front Ranger]

He should have known better than to go all in yesterday. To my seasoned eye this was obvious.

 

That's all he needs. Just a little more seasoning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the snow/ice event tomorrow. Don't be surprised if the moisture arrives earlier than scheduled. One of the systems in February 2014 arrived 6 hours early and this past January 3 2016, the moisture got here early by 3-5 hours I think. Just something to watch out for.

 

Do you realize how much colder that airmass was...

[Winterdog]

Thanks for that shot of reality.  It goes down hard but you feel better quickly. Now let's get rid of that gloom and take on this winter with a bit of twinkle in our eyes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's all he needs. Just a little more seasoning.

 

He is the best. That is why he pulled the plug after the 12z models, but he should have known better than to go all in yesterday. 

[Timmy]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/snow24.36.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And just a reminder...With a little luck we can help it out
We can make this whole D**n thing work out.  

[Timmy]

Do you realize how much colder that airmass was...

he/she realize what he/she wants to.

[Jesse]

That's all he needs. Just a little more seasoning.

I think he threw in the "Looking Better! Not as snowy/icy." just for me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I sure hope I am reverse jinxing this!!!!

[Jesse]

God you're a ******* genius.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He is the best. That is why he pulled the plug after the 12z models, but he should have known better than to go all in yesterday. 

 

I am going to tell rod hill!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And as of 11am...It is still a degree colder at SLE than The Dalles. 

[Heavy Snow]

Do you realize how much colder that airmass was...

Where did you get that from? I was talking about the timing dealing with the morning commute..... You're reaching there.....

[Timmy]

Where did you get that from? I was talking about the timing dealing with the morning commute..... You're reaching there.....

pot, meet kettle

[Jesse]

I think Rod Hill is the true hero here. Should come as no surprise he and Andrew are related!

[Perturbed Member]

F*ck this. This garbage is done. This place is trash. I'll be lucky to see an inch.

[seattleweatherguy]

Scott sistek going with 1 to 3 maybe