MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Currently 20F here right now! Brrr! Been a long time since I have seen the models struggle this badly...could make for something epically insanely great...or 48 degree rain. Almost better to just shut the models down and go with the street lamp approach and wait! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Almost time for the Euro...yahoooo!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Models don't really know what's going to happen tomorrow, this weekend, or next week. How are computers going to take over the world if they can't even get a d amn 3 day forecast right?Good point. I'm just hoping to see some snow tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 22F and clear Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I am just stunned how much cooler it looks to stay in Oregon on Thursday compared to the puget sound. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 What's your call for east wind areas? I am on the fence whether it will be a blessing or a curse.I'd lean towards an inch or two less. Any more than 2" down near the river would be gravy IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 The GEM looks frigid at the end of next week too. That's a very good sign. That model is more reluctant to go really cold for us in most cases. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 only 9 days away!!! Thats not clown rangeAround here day after tomorrow is clown range. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Epic fail!!! WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS!!! http://i.imgur.com/KqrDpCG.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 New afd for pdx should help put our minds at ease 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS!!! http://i.imgur.com/KqrDpCG.gifLoooooooolll 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I am just stunned how much cooler it looks to stay in Oregon on Thursday compared to the puget sound. hrrr_t2m_washington_19.pngummmm looks about the same to me dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 How's the euro looking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'd lean towards an inch or two less. Any more than 2" down near the river would be gravy IMO.I'm not really close to the river. Guess I'll just wait and see. I'd be thrilled with 2" that's what she said. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Great write-up by the Portland NWS describing why they are sticking with their 2-4" snowfall amounts in the PDX metro area. "Speaking of frontogenesis, will make a semi-quick comment about theforecast about the PDX Metro area. Models...including the 00z NAM,GFS, and 12z ECMWF...all show excellent frontogenetical forcingproducing strong lift through the dendritic growth zone of -12 to -18deg C in the atmosphere. Cold air outflow pouring out from the Gorge,combined with increasing S-SW flow trying to work its way into thePDX metro will only increase this during the late morning and earlyafternoon hours. This would result in decent QPF and snowaccumulation rates around midday. Therefore, we believe some of themodels that have lower-end QPF may be mistaken. The enhanced lift andincreasing precipitation will likely serve to cool the column to keeptemps near or slightly below freezing until the strongest area offrontogenetical forcing passes off to the N-NE around 00z Fri (4pmThu local time). Also, strong easterly flow will probably add someupslope component and modest cold air damming in western portions ofWashington and Yamhill Counties, so areas such as Forest Grove,McMinnville, Newberg and Dallas may see more snow than one wouldotherwise suspect. Tweaked the wording of the WSW to reflect this.Bottom line is that 18z and early 00z runs have only served toincrease confidence that this will be a significant event for atleast the northern half of our CWA." Weagle 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Hi neighbor! What part of Arlington are you located at? I'm addressed out of Arlington but live a few miles south and east of the town. My elevation is around 400 feet so I'm not in the valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 FWIW December 1884 had a very similar progression to what we have had and what is being shown on the GFS. Warning shot with a little snow...bigger shot with a lot of snow...biggest shot with more snow. We actually have a chance at the coldest December on record after the warmest November. I'm just stating what the models show is possible. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 New afd for pdx should help put our minds at easeSticking to their guns. I'd like to think they're smarter than us. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow coldest December? I don't know. It hasn't even been that cold yet around here even Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS!!! The guy with the chair could actually be the cold front. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm addressed out of Arlington but live a few miles south and east of the town. My elevation is around 400 feet so I'm not in the valley.Gotcha, I'm also addressed out of Arlington but I'm west of smokey point at about 300ft. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 How's the euro lookingI'm not even going to look at that sucker or read anymore of these posts for fear my delicate psyche will be shattered with another wiggle of the southern stream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow coldest December? I don't know. It hasn't even been that cold yet around here even As I said...assuming what the models have hinted at is correct. 1884 and 1983 began with modest cold just like this and those two were epically cold. I probably wouldn't have mentioned it if it weren't for that crazy Alaska block. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm not even going to look at that sucker or read anymore of these posts for fear my delicate psyche will be shattered with another wiggle of the southern stream.It's exhausting! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 SEATTLE AFD: ... Clouds will increase from the southwest on Thursday. Models are atad slower in bringing precipitation northward, but all showprecipitation developing in the south interior and on the centralcoast during the mid afternoon period, in the greater Seattle areabetween 5 and 7 PM, and in the Bellingham area around midnightThursday night. Precipitation will begin as snow in the interiorand change to rain from south to north during the evening south ofSeattle and after midnight to toward morning from Seattlenorthward. Snowfall will last about 6 hours and will amount to 4to 6 inches in the Hood Canal area and 1 to 3 inches elsewhere.The NAM is a bit heavier with the snowfall amounts (locally up to4 inches), while the drier GFS keeps most areas from Puget Soundand I-5 eastward drier with strong easterly pressure gradientscutting back on snow amounts to 2 inches or less. The currentforecast of 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands (with the exception tothe heavier amounts around Hood Canal) appear to be on track. Azone update was made to adjust the timing of the onset ofprecipitation later into the day Thursday in the south and mainlyin the evening for areas from Seattle northward.Model consistency and continuity is not really too good at thistime from Friday through Sunday. Cold air will remain just northof the Canadian border and lower pressure will be right overWestern Washington. Any shift of the surface trough or tracks oflow pressure will mean the difference between snow levels around500 feet or 1000-1500 feet. The current forecasts generally appearto be on track at this time.Other than the change to the timing of the precipitation onset,current forecasts look good. Albrecht Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Sticking to their guns. I'd like to think they're smarter than us. 2-4" still seems like a very reasonable forecast to me at PDX. Still forecasting only 1.25" on your doorstep? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Sticking to their guns. I'd like to think they're smarter than us.It seems like whenever there is a situation like this they always end up with egg on their face. I would feel better if they were being bearish. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Currently 16.5 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 WARM AIR ALWAYS WINS!!! http://i.imgur.com/KqrDpCG.gifHAHA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 As I said...assuming what the models have hinted at is correct. 1884 and 1983 began with modest cold just like this and those two were epically cold. I probably wouldn't have mentioned it if it weren't for that crazy Alaska block.I wonder how the weather weenies of 1884 were handling the lame warning shots... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Wow. The 00z has so many goodies IDK what to do... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 FWIW December 1884 had a very similar progression to what we have had and what is being shown on the GFS. Warning shot with a little snow...bigger shot with a lot of snow...biggest shot with more snow. We actually have a chance at the coldest December on record after the warmest November. I'm just stating what the models show is possible.I think you might be onto something..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 SEATTLE AFD: ... Clouds will increase from the southwest on Thursday. Models are atad slower in bringing precipitation northward, but all showprecipitation developing in the south interior and on the centralcoast during the mid afternoon period, in the greater Seattle areabetween 5 and 7 PM, and in the Bellingham area around midnightThursday night. Precipitation will begin as snow in the interiorand change to rain from south to north during the evening south ofSeattle and after midnight to toward morning from Seattlenorthward. Snowfall will last about 6 hours and will amount to 4to 6 inches in the Hood Canal area and 1 to 3 inches elsewhere.The NAM is a bit heavier with the snowfall amounts (locally up to4 inches), while the drier GFS keeps most areas from Puget Soundand I-5 eastward drier with strong easterly pressure gradientscutting back on snow amounts to 2 inches or less. The currentforecast of 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands (with the exception tothe heavier amounts around Hood Canal) appear to be on track. Azone update was made to adjust the timing of the onset ofprecipitation later into the day Thursday in the south and mainlyin the evening for areas from Seattle northward. Model consistency and continuity is not really too good at thistime from Friday through Sunday. Cold air will remain just northof the Canadian border and lower pressure will be right overWestern Washington. Any shift of the surface trough or tracks oflow pressure will mean the difference between snow levels around500 feet or 1000-1500 feet. The current forecasts generally appearto be on track at this time. Other than the change to the timing of the precipitation onset,current forecasts look good. AlbrechtCurrent forecast looks good until it doesn't... so like, when the Euro comes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 each model run feels like this... 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Current forecast looks good until it doesn't... so like, when the Euro comes out.honestly I do not see the euro changing much Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 It seems like whenever there is a situation like this they always end up with egg on their face. I would feel better if they were being bearish.After the 12z's this morning I went into retreat. Then Mark did too, and I honestly follow him like The Grateful Dead. Hard to get off that thinking at this point. The NWS stuff sounds swell, they've really fell in love with that f-word lately, but it does sound like rationalizing a bit of an unrealistic call. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro running ... Low is a bit closer and an itsy-bitsy stronger.. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Portland NWS continues their longstanding tradition of weenie-ness. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 2-4" still seems like a very reasonable forecast to me at PDX. Still forecasting only 1.25" on your doorstep?Yup. 3:45! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2016 Report Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro precip looks good for .4-.6 in the pdx metro through 00z tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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