December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some sleet mixing in with the snow now.

[FroYoBro]

Legitimate snow is now falling. Light, but not just a puny little flurry anymore! 

[Timmy]

Some sleet mixing in with the snow now.

Debbie downer

[seattleweatherguy]

Latest HRRR keeps the greater Seattle area snowless through 2AM. Might be pushing back precip similar to GFS/Euro.

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016120816/seattle/hrrr_snow_seattle_19.png

Is this good or bad news?

[luvssnow_spokane]

With space heaters attached? A*sholes are trying to warm the mid levels!!!

D**n global warming Nazi's

[Deweydog]

Flake sighting at VanMall!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles cold, but not quite as outrageous early next week, but now the mean stays below average the entire run...Which now takes us to Christmas!

[Tyler Mode]

Flurries now in Battle Ground.  Good thing the air is somewhat dry.  Temp is 34.  DP is 19.

 

Peak wind of 30 mph.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some sleet mixing in with the snow now.

did you get to make a snowman?  Talk about over performing!

[Kayla]

Tstorms!

 

Jim Cantore is that you?!

[Jesse]

12z ensembles cold, but not quite as outrageous early next week, but now the mean stays below average the entire run...Which now takes us to Christmas!

The ensemble mean is actually colder than the op for the first shot early next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Debbie downer

 

It switches back and forth...Back to snow now. Coming down pretty good. S. Salem cams are showing moderate snow too...Maybe I'll be wrong about Salem accumulations. I hope.

[Kayla]

Definitely warm air advection occurring with this next batch. This will test the PDX layer. I think west metro will do well

 

Cold air is still really deep up here. East and west metro up near the gorge are good. Snow day!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensemble mean is actually colder than the op for the first shot early next week.

 

It is. I think that first shot will be more backdoor/low level cold. Probably a situation PDX and the valley are colder than Seattle. 

[liquidsnow]

Do you have any ideas on how this whole event is overblown and everyone will just get rain?

 

Our Pacific Northwest Weather Bill of Rights at least says that EVERYONE is entitled to snow under article 3.

 

Good news is there's tons more opportunities ahead if you don't get anything tomorow

[Jesse]

I like the 12z ensembles. Not only does it show the potential for next week to trend colder (and the operational was a warm outlier), but now also has a few members staying cold as we head towards Christmas. Will be pretty amazing if we can pull off two+ weeks of cold/occasional snow.

 

 

 

And to think. This could all just be a warning shot for January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we get an inch I am closing the office and going home. 

[Perturbed Member]

Very furious flurries going on here now in Hillsboro.

[Goducks09]

Flurries have ended Downtown PDX...  Da** east winds.

[Kayla]

And there it is! Who here picked December 8th??

 

KPDX 081753Z 10028G35KT 9SM -SN BKN065 OVC090 01/M08 A2999 RMK AO2 PK WND 11042/1718 SNB35 SLP156 P0000 60000 T00111083 10011 20006 55011

[Perturbed Member]

I like those mean looking echos moving up.

[Timmy]

And there it is! Who here picked December 8th??

 

KPDX 081753Z 10028G35KT 9SM -SN BKN065 OVC090 01/M08 A2999 RMK AO2 PK WND 11042/1718 SNB35 SLP156 P0000 60000 T00111083 10011 20006 55011

Actually rob did

[liquidsnow]

Actually rob did

 

Hope the dude is okay.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Euro 850mb Temps cooler on Sat...

 

 

Today 00z Run...

 

 

Previous run...

 

[bainbridgekid]

Euro looks really good for Portland today.

 

 

Haven't seen Western WA yet.

[Timmy]

Hope the dude is okay.

He has a fb group with 1000 people in it, when he is in full on weather mode he most posts there

[Jesse]

Light snow here now. Was just flurrying earlier.

 

Sticking to the ground easily too. Turns out high soil temperatures are not a factor when the ground is frozen.

[Phil]

Despite some imperfections, I think the forecast(s) I made back in November were fairly accurate overall:

 

I do expect a mammoth EPO/AO plunge around the holidays and/or just afterward, with a corresponding Arctic shot over the nation. How that unfolds is still in question.

I think anything before December 10th is mostly a modeling tease, yeah. A few degrees cooler than average maybe? I'm watching for a significant EPO/AO tank starting around the Holidays, however.

In reality I think the PV was always bound to strengthen as the bihemispheric wavedrive reverses, which'll eventually shove the vortex onto our side of the pole. In the process we lose the WAFz fluxes which allows it to strengthen.

Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter.

I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

I still like mid/late December for a big snow event, FWIW.

[HighlandExperience]

Someone post wxbell snow map for western wa

[westcoastexpat]

Despite some imperfections, I think the forecast(s) I made back in November were fairly accurate overall:

 

 

 

 

 

 

No offense Phil, but posts like this come across a little insecure. Enough egos in here!

[Jesse]

No offense Phil, but posts like this come across a little insecure. Enough egos in here!

I didn't get that vibe at all.

[Phil]

No offense Phil, but posts like this come across a little insecure. Enough egos in here!

Huh? I clearly made some mistakes, and I'm just following up to affirm my thoughts haven't changed (yet) on the large scale.

[westcoastexpat]

Huh? I clearly made some mistakes, and I'm just following up to affirm my thoughts haven't changed yet.

We don't need to hold people accountable for making forecasts as a hobby. No need to prove yourself to anyone.

[Phil]

We don't need to hold people accountable for making forecasts as a hobby. No need to prove yourself to anyone.

Give it a rest. You're taking this completely out of context.

[Goducks09]

Looking snowy in Salem, good radar returns over that area right now.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/I-5atKueblerRdSouthSalem_pid1496.jpg?rand=1481221032594

 

Wow!  That looks really great actually!

[Timmy]

4km wrf just went up to 4-8" of snow for me today. That's a big improvement

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Euro following the GFS... looking pretty good coming Monday..

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

NWS is going to blow their forecast for northern WA.

[HighlandExperience]

NWS is going to blow their forecast for northern WA.

They have delayed their morning discussion,

[Jesse]

Looking snowy in Salem, good radar returns over that area right now.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/I-5atKueblerRdSouthSalem_pid1496.jpg?rand=1481221032594

That's a lot of sleet!