December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

OMG! 18z not only sucks in the short term but sucks even more in the mid-long range... Every Run just gets worse and worse. Epic Failure with so much potential in the large scale setup.

Drunk uncle, don't worry about it.

[Front Ranger]

I think he's talking about strong +NAO being bad.

 

Jan 1950 had raging +NAO, for the most part. It's coupled with a strong SE ridge in many cases.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The PNW climate has an automatic -10 handicap you have to account for. 

more like -90... 90% of the time we get screwed!

[luminen]

Looks like it's switched over to light rain here. Good chance all the snow will be gone by the end of the weekend (hopefully to replaced by new snow on Sunday night):

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120912/images_d3/925t.40.0000.gif

 

Eh, that's the WRF. 

 

Hoping there's no rain here before Sunday night though. The duration of this colder weather sure is awesome though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drunk uncle, don't worry about it.

I hope... I am just not seeing any model improve. So it tells me it is much more than the drunk uncle but a direction things seem to heading.

[Phil]

The 18z is going to try something silly in the d9-10 range.

 

Might attempt to emulate the Euro's drunk trough.

[Front Ranger]

OMG!  18z not only sucks in the short term but sucks even more in the mid-long range... Every Run just gets worse and worse.  Epic Failure with so much potential in the large scale setup.  

 

Did you forget about the last run, the 12z Euro?

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 18z is going to try something silly in the d9-10 range.

Who fricken cares!!! Every run shows something silly then. Meaningless!!

[Deweydog]

The 18z is going to try something silly in the d9-10 range.

 

Might attempt to emulate the Euro's drunk trough.

I knew that at day 8.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why does our weather always suck!

[HighlandExperience]

34 degree rain here. Pretty miserable outside. 

[Front Ranger]

18z looks quite chilly and quite dry.

 

Very early/mid 80s-ish.

[Phil]

Jan 1950 had raging +NAO, for the most part. It's coupled with a strong SE ridge in many cases.

Okay, but that was a rare case where the PV aloft (and peripheral wave amplification associated with its demise) was located over W/SW Canada. Also, the EA-NAMT ratio was extremely polarized and the Hadley Cells were very much contracted.

 

This isn't something we could pull off today.

[Deweydog]

OMG! 18z not only sucks in the short term but sucks even more in the mid-long range... Every Run just gets worse and worse. Epic Failure with so much potential in the large scale setup.

Post of the year. Calling it now. Don't waste your energy over the last 21 days trying to top it.

[HighlandExperience]

Amazing to me how when you drive just right outside Issaquah on I-90 over the Issaquah Alps the climate changes dramatically in marginal situations like this. Once you hit the junction of Hwy 18 and I-90. TT would know this very well. !!! 

[Phil]

Also, a very strong +NAO, in the classic sense, very often leads to eastern troughing through both upstream and downstream feedbacks, though there are some cases where the entire nation will torch.

[Phil]

Yeah, this run sucks regardless. Just too much +AO.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0397C2EE-0F8D-4D54-80DE-F11418897EB9_zpsrevrmlts.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say November sucked

[Phil]

Lol, the polar vortex squashes that NPAC ridge like a bug.

 

But yeah, the AO/NAO are meaningless right?

[Timmy]

Snow mixing in in scappoose?!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol, the polar vortex squashes that NPAC ridge like a bug.

 

But yeah, the AO/NAO are meaningless right?

It's gonna drop down to the pnw

[Phil]

It's gonna drop down to the pnw

I don't see it. Might slide into the Great Lakes or Northeast, which is more of the "default" when blocking is lacking.

[Front Ranger]

Lol, the polar vortex squashes that NPAC ridge like a bug.

 

But yeah, the AO/NAO are meaningless right?

 

Of course they aren't meaningless.

 

But they aren't as meaningful to the PNW as much of the rest of the country. The correlations just aren't very strong at all.

 

EPO/WPO are far more important for the PNW getting cold.

[BLI snowman]

Snow mixing in in scappoose?!?

 

Just heavy rain here, still 32.

[Front Ranger]

18z shows literally no precip for you guys days 6-10 and beyond.

 

[Deweydog]

Definitely a mix in downtown Vancouver.

[Phil]

Wave-driving restarting out of Eurasia in the clown range, so that would get the job done in la-la-land. That's something in the realm of chaos though.

[Timmy]

Definitely a mix in downtown Vancouver.

that wasn't supposed to happen

[Phil]

Of course they aren't meaningless.

 

But they aren't as meaningful to the PNW as much of the rest of the country. The correlations just aren't very strong at all.

 

EPO/WPO are far more important for the PNW getting cold.

I don't think anyone would suggest otherwise. I'd still argue that, in the current era, Arctic/NAO blocking is generally preferable to a strong vortex there, however.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem not bumped to 48

[Bryant]

18z shows literally no precip for you guys days 6-10 and beyond.

 

 

Dry cold is horrible

[Deweydog]

that wasn't supposed to happen

Heavy shower, cold surface and somewhat cooler mid levels.

[Phil]

Haha, that giant +AO just self-destructs in the uber-clown range.

 

All it took was a little bump out of Eurasia and it fell apart.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think anyone would suggest otherwise. I'd still argue that, in the current era, Arctic/NAO blocking is generally preferable to a strong vortex there, however.

 

That makes sense. It just seems like you're always saying "this run shows +AO or +NAO, no good". To paraphrase. Like it's automatically a bad thing for the people on this forum. That's how it comes across, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver lining is January still on the table!

[Front Ranger]

Dry cold is horrible

 

 

More horrible than 40 degree rain?

[Front Ranger]

Silver lining is January still on the table!

 

It never left the table. Would take a Dec 2008 redux to really knock it off.

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked.

[Phil]

That makes sense. It just seems like you're always saying "this run shows +AO or +NAO, no good". To paraphrase. Like it's automatically a bad thing for the people on this forum. That's how it comes across, at least.

Thanks for the heads up, that's definitely not my intention. I do think that, in this particular pattern, you'd want to avoid a legitimate +NAO, but I can think of a few cases where a modest to moderate +NAO would be helpful in patterns that are slightly different.

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

More horrible than 40 degree rain?

Yes! At least we would get snow in the mountains...