December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Gordon Lightfoot didn't get the memo about Thursday's blizzard.

IF you could read my mind...

[Phil]

120E convection-related.

Yup.

[Heavy Snow]

Most of the time the southern branch manages to send some moisture up to undercut the cold. Keep in mind what we are talking about hasn't even happened yet. Some Nina winters end up cold and dry, but it's not the norm.

Looks like the southern branch manages to send moisture up here on Thursday. Your positive outlook made this possible snow_wizard. You were right, still lots of time for it to change and it has.

[EA_TTD]

Gordon Lightfoot didn't get the memo about Thursday's blizzard.

https://youtu.be/9vST6hVRj2A

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gordon Lightfoot didn't get the memo about Thursday's blizzard.

Thats a singer man!

[MossMan]

Hit 40 for the first time since last weekend.

[MossMan]

[seattleweatherguy]

[Jesse]

I really dislike the trend for midweek and beyond on the 00z.

 

Could easily see this morphing into a mild rain pattern on subsequent runs. That's why I never liked the looks of that energy digging offshore early in the week. It seems impossible to keep the jet suppressed across a wide area longitudinally these days.

[Deweydog]

I really dislike the trend for midweek and beyond on the 00z.

 

Could easily see this morphing into a mild rain pattern on subsequent runs. That's why I never liked the looks of that energy digging offshore early in the week. It seems impossible to keep the jet suppressed across a wide area longitudinally these days.

There's a lot of ways this could morph, and yeah, a good number of them would be to a far more progressive and mild pattern. There's some similarities between this pattern and what happened in late December into early January 92-93. That was an example of what happens when the GOA block is able to persist for the most part despite energy splitting/digging offshore.

 

Bottom line is nothing is close to resolved at this point.

[luminen]

It's a good town and got it's ups and downs. Gets a little hot in the summer, and doesn't actually snow that much in the winter(usually). Kalispell might be very similar with both problems somewhat solved, and you also get Flathead lake nearby as well as GNP, but you will definitely get less thunderstorms. Also there is rent/housing costs to consider which is definitely much higher in Missoula. If I was older I might actually prefer Kalispell since I wouldn't have a need to be around younger people. UM is kind of a shitshow though, I can say as a grad student. If you have any more specific questions you can PM me.

 

I went to Missoula a few summers ago and it's too brown and hot for me. It was actually really hot...mid 90s. The Dillon area is quite a bit nicer climatically and I spent some time there for a few weeks. I also went to Kalispell and it was rainy and mild and a lot greener than Missoula and Dillon. Helena and Butte are shitholes though but for different reasons.  

[MossMan]

Another good writeup tonight from NWS Seattle...complex pattern...a lot can go right...or wrong but the potential is sure there!!

[MikeBC]

The arctic air has been stalling in east Abbotsford. There is a pretty good snowstorm in the east of that area. I notice how much colder Agassiz is.

 

Agassiz 27F with snow and winds

Abbotsford 32F with rain and snow mixed

Vancouver 36F with mostly clouds

 

Looks like the arctic air will eventually make a move to the southwest from Fraser Valley sometime tomorrow afternoon.

[MossMan]

Will it be King Euro or Weenie Euro tonight?

[Heavy Snow]

Will it be King Euro or Weenie Euro tonight?

King Euro will return tonight!

[Jesse]

Gordon Lightfoot didn't get the memo about Thursday's blizzard.

Good. Hopefully this means cold air remained entrenched over us on the Canadian.

[Perturbed Member]

Please let the 00z GFS verify for Thursday.

[Jesse]

Please let the 00z GFS verify for Thursday.

Bad trend. We will have 50 degree rain on Thursday and Friday if the next few runs warm as much as the 00z did from the 12z.

 

There would definitely be more moisture though!

[MossMan]

With the Huskies vying to be National Champions, Seahawks dominating the NFC West, the Sounders just taking it all...I can smell something huge winter weather wise as well for the Western Wa. Something epic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting writeup by Seattle NWS about all the uncertainty this week both Monday and later in the week.

 

SYNOPSIS...A passing upper trough will produce cold and showery
weather through Sunday. Later Sunday or Sunday night into Monday,
a cold front will move south through western Washington, ushering
in a much colder air mass with its origins well to the north. This
front could produce a few showers and spotty lowland snow
accumulations. A cold and dry air mass will then stay in place
into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Well, it looks like the forecast challenges
mentioned by the earlier forecast shift only grow on this one with
models showing poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency in
the all important fine details. Previous model runs and their
ensembles generally insisted on cold and dry weather dominating
this week. Ensembles from early this morning and before averaged
on an inch or less snowfall accumulation in most of the lowlands
as the arctic air moved in sometime between late Sunday afternoon
and Monday morning. The 18Z GFS and NAM along with the 12Z
Canadian and ECMWF solutions started introducing a bit more
moisture into the mix for late Sunday night and Monday in the
central portions of Western Washington during the transition (but
the 18Z GFS was on the wettest end of the ensemble mix).

The 00Z NAM shows a period from 12Z-18Z Monday where some mixed
precipitation could move through the central Puget Sound area but
with marginal temperatures. The 00Z GFS is much wetter. It is
also cold enough to provide the potential for a significant snow
event for the north slopes of the Olympics (like around and east
of Port Angeles) late Sunday night, for the area around Snohomish
and North King county Monday morning and for the central sound
area including Seatac Monday afternoon and early evening. The
arctic air in the latest solutions is overall slower to move
southward.

Is the 00Z GFS for real? Well, it is really hard to say. Satellite
imagery over the eastern Pacific shows a rather complex pattern
with numerous swirls rotating around a mean upper center along
135-140W. Very cold air is spilling offshore in southeastern
Alaska. ASCAT data earlier showed the low level wind fields for
the ECMWF and GFS to appear similar and rather well initialized
(not completely perfect with the satellite data but good). It
appears that the very small model differences could be
contributing to some instability in the solutions. Another source
for model differences could be due to low pressure development
off Vancouver Island due to cold air outflow to the northwest. Any
solution at this point appears plausible.

With all that said, I would like to see another run or two with
this solution before biting off and issuing any watches or
warnings. We do have a high wind watch for the San Juans and
Western Whatcom county starting tomorrow afternoon and lasting
into Monday afternoon. This may be a tad fast, but it appears
reasonable given the developing Williams Lake to Bellingham
pressure gradients starting Sunday afternoon. We have Winter
Storm Warnings out for the West Slopes of the Cascades through 4
AM Monday. This looks to verify nicely tonight into Sunday and
possibly into Sunday night.

Current forecasts look good for now. No updates are planned at
this time. Albrecht

.LONG TERM...An upper ridge over Alaska and an upper trough near
Hudson Bay will continue to funnel cold and dry air down the
Fraser River canyon on Wednesday, so the air mass over western
Washington will not be able to modify or warm. Beyond Wednesday,
most confident part of the forecast is that temperatures will
remain well below normal.

What is uncertain is how the models deal with southern stream
energy or the possibility of impulses moving southeast from the
Alaska Panhandle. While the 12z and 18z GFS holds back any precip
until at least next weekend, the 12z ECMWF and Canadian bring a
low center southeast off the coast. Precip would overrun the cold
air in place over the Pacific Northwest and bring yet another
round of lowland snow. The 00z GFS is even more robust in bringing
moist southern stream air northward into Western Washington
showing several inches of snow for Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. So it bears watching to see what model consensus
eventually develops. For now, the official forecast reflects a low
chance of snow on Thursday night and Friday. Albrecht/Haner

[snow_wizard]

Puget sound gets buried in snow the end of next week.

 

Yup.  No question the airmass is cold enough.  Of course the D**n WRF isn't working tonight.

 

Monday still looks to be on course also.

[Perturbed Member]

Bad trend. We will have 50 degree rain on Thursday and Friday if the next few runs warm as much as the 00z did from the 12z.

 

There would definitely be more moisture though!

 

 

Hmm Mark is thinking about it

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[Jesse]

I can't believe no one can see what a disaster the 00z GFS was but me.

[bainbridgekid]

Yup.  No question the airmass is cold enough.  Of course the D**n WRF isn't working tonight.

 

Monday still looks to be on course also.

WRF finally just initialized.

 

I'm really curious to see how it handles Monday.

 

Pretty crazy uncertainty for less than 2 days out with that. I could see it being very significant around Seattle and could also easily see it being very similar to last Monday and basically snowless for most.

[Jesse]

Hmm Mark is thinking about it

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

That's going to look much different tomorrow. Significantly warmer Thursday and beyond. Highs in the 40s or warmer.

[Kayla]

I can't believe no one can see what a disaster the 00z GFS was but me.

 

It's the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

Another good writeup tonight from NWS Seattle...complex pattern...a lot can go right...or wrong but the potential is sure there!!

 

Dancing with the Devil baby!

 

A lot of our big snows come that way.  It's really interesting how much shallow cold air we will be dealing with.  850s don't give a really good picture with this.  The 1000-850mb thickness is a good tool right now.

[Kayla]

Hmm Mark is thinking about it

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Not Marks Forecast.

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe no one can see what a disaster the 00z GFS was but me.

 

It's awesome for this area, but I can see why you don't like it.

[Jesse]

It's the GFS.

Yup. Grain of salt obviously but this is not a trend or run to be celebrated.

[MossMan]

That's going to look much different tomorrow. Significantly warmer Thursday and beyond. Highs in the 40s or warmer.

Complex pattern...we are going to see about 16 different model outcome being spit out between now and then.

[snow_wizard]

WRF finally just initialized.

 

I'm really curious to see how it handles Monday.

 

Pretty crazy uncertainty for less than 2 days out with that. I could see it being very significant around Seattle and could also easily see it being very similar to last Monday and basically snowless for most.

 

The moisture appears more robust with this scenario.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well it looks like things are looking good....  I am getting the error on tropical tidbits though :  "Due to NOAA data feed issues, some model data is currently delayed."

[Kayla]

Yup. Grain of salt obviously but this is not a trend or run to be celebrated.

 

It's gotten to the point now that I just can't believe anything I see from it. Even the NAM has performed better lately.

[snow_wizard]

Complex pattern...we are going to see about 16 different model outcome for spit out between now and then.

 

Yeah....we need to avoid jumping up and down for joy or contemplate biting a bullet right now.

[Jesse]

It's awesome for this area, but I can see why you don't like it.

If tomorrow's 12z is as "awesome" as tonight's 00z was compared to today's 12z that run will have warm rain for you guys too.

 

Don't we ever learn. January 2011 must have taught us nothing. We all need to band together and encourage better model runs.

[snow_wizard]

Well it looks like things are looking good....  I am getting the error on tropical tidbits though :  "Due to NOAA data feed issues, some model data is currently delayed."

 

The system on day 5 is orgasmic for us.  I'm trying to not get too stoked though.

[Brennan]

I can't believe no one can see what a disaster the 00z GFS was but me.

I am with you Jesse.. this isn't exactly the pattern going forward that we're looking for. 24-36 hours ago it looked cold/dry with reinforcing shots of cold air right up until Christmas which obviously gives us the chance for things to change from cold/dry to maybe cold/snowy... now things are slipping too far east and the pattern turns very progressive with low pressure dominating the aleutians.

This less than stellar outcome has some time to change though.

 

P.s the next 5 days look pretty good to me...

[snow_wizard]

If tomorrow's 12z is as "awesome" as tonight's 00z was compared to today's 12z that run will have warm rain for you guys too.

 

Don't we ever learn. January 2011 must have taught us nothing. We all need to band together and encourage better model runs.

 

Eh...the cold has been very well advertised by all models.  The blocking is there.  I still have high confidence on cold.