December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Had a high of 28...but the plunge has begun as I am now at 26!

[Jesse]

It would have made a little difference, although I think 22-23 would have been the likely low with full clearing. Then you would have just had more of a diurnal swing, probably up to 36 or 37. It's just not that cold of an air mass.

Lucky bums up north stayed in the 20s all day. We had the snow and they had the daytime temperatures cold enough to keep it around, had they had any. This climate has a sick sense of humor sometimes.

[Deweydog]

Lucky bums up north stayed in the 20s all day. We had the snow and they had the daytime temperatures cold enough to keep it around, had they had any. This climate has a sick sense of humor sometimes.

This is definitely a more north/south setup. The gorge just isn't much of a factor.

[TT-SEA]

Lucky bums up north stayed in the 20s all day. We had the snow and they had the daytime temperatures cold enough to keep it around, had they had any. This climate has a sick sense of humor sometimes.

 

 

People around Bellingham and Vancouver Island just finished a work week of snow cover and temps below freezing.    They got both.

 

[stuffradio]

Lucky bums up north stayed in the 20s all day. We had the snow and they had the daytime temperatures cold enough to keep it around, had they had any. This climate has a sick sense of humor sometimes.

I bumped up to 30ish, but that could have just been the sun shining on the thermometer device directly. It was chilly all day either way, with little to no melting on the main snow. I dropped to at least 15 this morning though.

[Brennan]

I will be posting pictures of my week in whatcom county here shortly

[Bryant]

I will be posting pictures of my week in whatcom county here shortly

Making me jealous the whole time

[Jesse]

Looks like the mid-level cloud deck is getting its act together again. Just in time for sunset!

[Deweydog]

Looks like the mid-level cloud deck is getting its act together again. Just in time for sunset!

Low teens to upper 20's seems like a good call.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like the mid-level cloud deck is getting its act together again. Just in time for sunset!

 

Tonight's mild low heartache is tomorrow's snowstorm....

[Jesse]

Tonight's mild low heartache is tomorrow's snowstorm....

Honestly we will probably see neither cold lows nor a snowstorm.

[Deweydog]

Honestly we will probably see neither cold lows nor a snowstorm.

How cold does it have to be to be cold?

 

It's 30 here and probably going to get lower than that.

[BLI snowman]

Honestly we will probably see neither cold lows nor a snowstorm.

 

True. 21 and a trace seem like good calls.

[Jesse]

Is a clear night with snow on the ground basically an impossibility at this point? How long has it been? The entirety of the 2008 event was completely cloudy too. Took a lot away from it IMO.

[Jesse]

How cold does it have to be to be cold?

 

It's 30 here and probably going to get lower than that.

Teens would be nice.

[Bryant]

NAM showing some moisture for tomorrow morning around whatcom county... only model that I know of currently showing this however

[Deweydog]

Is a clear night with snow on the ground basically an impossibility at this point? How long has it been? The entirety of the 2008 event was completely cloudy too. Took a lot away from it IMO.

It's been an incredibly long drought, although snow going into cold is just tougher to pull off here as opposed to the Puget Sound. One of these days things will line up properly. If Eugene can do it, anyone can do it. Eugene sucks.

[Jesse]

Man clouds have just thickened up out of nowhere. Looking like another solid cloud deck tonight. I thought we were basically in the clear after this morning, pun intended.

[BLI snowman]

Is a clear night with snow on the ground basically an impossibility at this point? How long has it been? The entirety of the 2008 event was completely cloudy too. Took a lot away from it IMO.

 

Eh, I'm not sure our somewhat spotty ~1" of remaining snow would make much of a difference with assisting tonight's lows anyways.

[FroYoBro]

Is a clear night with snow on the ground basically an impossibility at this point? How long has it been? The entirety of the 2008 event was completely cloudy too. Took a lot away from it IMO.

 

Really? I guess I am not as worried about low temps as some people in here. A low of 23 compared to 17 isn't really that big of a difference in the whole scheme of the "event".  I guess that I am just all about the snow.

[Jesse]

Eh, I'm not sure our somewhat spotty ~1" of remaining snow would make much of a difference with assisting tonight's lows anyways.

A clear cold moonlit night with the stars out and some snowcover is still nice regardless.

[Jesse]

Really? I guess I am not as worried about low temps as some people in here. A low of 23 compared to 17 isn't really that big of a difference in the whole scheme of the "event". I guess that I am just all about the snow.

I like the whole picture. Different strokes I guess.

[Deweydog]

Man clouds have just thickened up out of nowhere. Looking like another solid cloud deck tonight. I thought we were basically in the clear after this morning, pun intended.

I doubt we end up with a solid cloud deck, but severe clear isn't gonna happen. Not a particularly dry air mass.

 

Aside from the NWS's goofball numbers, I wouldn't be all that impressed with the parameters going into a night like this. If things remain relatively clear, the usual suspects will probably dip below 20 but that's probably it. We can do better during fake cold.

[Jesse]

I doubt we end up with a solid cloud deck, but severe clear isn't gonna happen. Not a particularly dry air mass.

 

Aside from the NWS's goofball numbers, I wouldn't be all that impressed with the parameters going into a night like this. If things remain relatively clear, the usual suspects will probably dip below 20 but that's probably it. We can do better during fake cold.

I recall you commenting on how cold Friday night looked a few days ago. Not much has really changed between then and now. If anything the airmass has verified a little colder.

[Sometimesdylan]

Snow starting here very lightly right now... 13 degrees right now at the house and rising. Probably switching to rain here tomorrow or sunday. 

Hope for snow up high...

[MossMan]

23!

[BLI snowman]

A clear moonlit night with the stars out and some snowcover is still nice regardless.

 

Indeed, but it generally takes a solid ground covering (2"+) to start seeing some noticeable differences. Even if tonight is reasonably clear, I don't really see us going lower than 17-18. Some of the model output this week has been suggesting a lot cooler than that, presumably on account of thinking we'd have a bit more snowcover.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35/19 at mi casa today

[Deweydog]

I recall you commenting on how cold Friday night looked a few days ago. Not much has really changed between then and now. If anything the airmass has verified a little colder.

I overestimated the snow's persistence and the ability for this air mass to advect drier air by now. Dew points in the mid 20's aren't too impressive. Frost will be pretty widespread tomorrow morning and even some fog.

[Jesse]

I overestimated the snow's persistence and the ability for this air mass to advect drier air by now. Dew points in the mid 20's aren't too impressive. Frost will be pretty widespread tomorrow morning and even some fog.

Something about the way that low on Wednesday night tracked absolutely juiced the mid levels, and they have stayed that way.

[Deweydog]

Something about the way that low on Wednesday night tracked absolutely juiced the mid levels, and they have stayed that way.

Well, we knew that was gonna happen. Deformation zones, even ones as weak as that one, tend to be really persistent. It wasn't a total shock we saw pockets of flurries/light snow well into Thursday morning. The biggest problem to me was the inversion wasn't able to break during the day Thursday. That left it to last night and and this morning.

[MossMan]

Indeed, but it generally takes a solid ground covering (2"+) to start seeing some noticeable differences. Even if tonight is reasonably clear, I don't really see us going lower than 17-18. Some of the model output this week has been suggesting a lot cooler than that, presumably on account of thinking we'd have a bit more snowcover.

The 20+" of snow I had midway through the Dec. 2008 event I'm sure really helped my awesome 0F low I had.

[Jesse]

Well, we knew that was gonna happen. Deformation zones, even ones as weak as that one, tend to be really persistent. It wasn't a total shock we saw pockets of flurries/light snow well into Thursday morning. The biggest problem to me was the inversion wasn't able to break during the day Thursday. That left it to last night and and this morning.

We know in hindsight.

[BLI snowman]

The 20+" of snow I had midway through the Dec. 2008 event I'm sure really helped my awesome 0F low I had.

 

Yeah, nearly all of the subzero events in the western lowlands have been influenced by heavy duty snowcover.

[Deweydog]

We know in hindsight.

It was pretty clear precip wasn't just going to end and we'd switch to this brisk, well-mixed cold advection affection world. To do that we need an Arctic front, and it'll be 22 years this February since we've struck gold in that manner.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So it's going to be cloudy all night now? That sucks

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 20+" of snow I had midway through the Dec. 2008 event I'm sure really helped my awesome 0F low I had.

08 was amazing for me for snow totals. 54 inches. 07-08 was 44 inches believe it or not.

[MossMan]

08 was amazing for me for snow totals. 54 inches. 07-08 was 44 inches believe it or not.

I had 34" at the height of 2008...07/08 I cannot recall but it wasn't much...lots of 33 degree slush!

[MossMan]

21!

[Perturbed Member]

A clear cold moonlit night with the stars out and some snowcover is still nice regardless.

 

 

It would be nice, but I've pretty much lost too much snow now to get the full effect anyway.