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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

00Z ECMWF is much better for next weekend... shows an 850mb temp of -7C and 925mb temp of -2C for Christmas Eve with a c-zone over King County which brings 2-3 inches here.   

 

And its total dry on Christmas Day... with a warm-up starting later in the day.  

 

Lock in there please.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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epiceast Newbie

epiceast

Posted
Posted

Which would clearly explain why right at the exact point in time the temps begin to moderate the chances of snow increase. I'm sure there's a small coincidence with that along with an approaching low but still. Makes perfect sense. Missoula is set to have more snow than I ontiesdah. Thanks Dewey.

 

By the way, did you know there's a member in the Atlantic part of the forum that rolls with a similar Blackhawks avatar as you.

Cold air reduces down sloping according to the local NWS. Actually warm moist low coming right over us with arctic air in place basically nullifies orographic effects. Last storm we had, the town got an inch more than ski resort 2000' higher and 5 miles north. The south of the valley got obscene amounts(1'+) because the highest energy was closest to that location.

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
Posted

00Z ECMWF is much better for next weekend... shows an 850mb temp of -7C and 925mb temp of -2C for Christmas Eve with a c-zone over King County which brings 2-3 inches here.

 

And its total dry on Christmas Day... with a warm-up starting later in the day.

 

Lock in there please.

Doubtful. Might want to just accept it

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Eh, all in all this has been pretty weak sauce. We've done well with it but bottoming out last week with thicknesses around 520dm just doesn't cut it. It's a new high water mark since 2014-15, but I think our standards should be a touch higher.

I guess I was talking more regionally.

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

It's getting warmer here... Up to 29F after dropping to 24F right after sunset.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

6z GFS after day 6 unfolds very similar to the CPC outlook with persistent ridging over the eastern/southeast US, Aleutian block, and cross polar flow. It was so close to being amazing. I created an animated Gif from HR 168-384. Slide the block a tad ---> and with a bit more amplification we're in business.

 

http://imgur.com/F7Z6Ye9

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Most important GFS run of the year!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Approaching an inch now.

You live in Arlington now? I thought you lived in Granite Falls?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

You live in Arlington now? I thought you lived in Granite Falls?

Nope Arlington (7-Lakes) area. Moderate snow and 26 degrees...nice powder falling!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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