December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 571dam heights over Anchorage...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/228/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Probably best GFS run in a long time, but do we trust it with it being so inconsistent

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 4 hours 35 minutes

[Heavy Snow]

New post from Michael Ventrice regarding our ridge that's going to build to our NW.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice "The latest ECMWF Ens has trended much stronger with North Pacific "Date-line" ridge that is expected to set up shop late Dec-early Jan."

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814075235389571073

[Gradient Keeper]

New post from Michael Ventrice regarding our ridge that's going to build to our NW.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice "The latest ECMWF Ens has trended much stronger with North Pacific "Date-line" ridge that is expected to set up shop late Dec-early Jan."

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814075235389571073

That block is going to be off the charts, literally! Sounds very promising for us. Get those heights over Anchorage around 564-570dm and our odds increase for a significant blast/prolonged cold spell. 12z Euro today may be magical.

[Gradient Keeper]

❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄

-Model Countdown-

Next up....

*12z GFS in 3 hours 10 minutes

12z GEM in 4 hours 10 minutes

12z ECMWF in 5 hours 28 minutes

❄❄❄ Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄❄

[Gradient Keeper]

IR Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

 

There's our ridge now intensifying near 175 W, 40 N. This is what morphs into the Mega Goliath Behemoth block

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_common/201612281130_ir.gif

[snow drift]

We also haven't seen a significantly -PNA January (below -1.00) since 1972

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

I think that's going to change this winter. Guess you could say we were due.

We got to get the monkey off our back! I feel satisfied with all other months.

[snow drift]

It will get cold early next week. That isn't the issue. I just wonder if it will be long lasting. I would feel better if there was a distinct SE ridge showing up in the models during the long term. I'm concerned about the cold event turning into a glancing blow with a ridge parked over us later on. I've seen it happen in past Januaries.

[TT-SEA]

Been really busy with guests... I have been checking the models periodically but its more fun just to read through this drama every morning.  

 

They leave tomorrow so I will be able to focus on the details better.   Going skiing again today in what I hope are awesome conditions up there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Should be a great day, skies cleared and the temp dropped to 28 this morning, beautiful crisp and cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 36 upper low/cut-off closes off sooner. Hmmm

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/036/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

New info from Medford NWS. I like this! GO Euro !

Confidence in the forecast details beyond Monday is low, but there is still general model agreement in a drier but much colder period of weather into mid-week. The forecast leans toward the less progressive/colder ECMWF solution. If this scenario does in fact transpire. It could bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far with the ECMWF indicating west side lows in the teens... locally in the single digits and below zero readings on the east side.

[Deweydog]

Can already tell the GFS is holding its ground.

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright! cut-off is 200 miles further west than 00z! Trending to Euro I believe!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 cut-off almost centered right under the block like the Euro. I said this was going to happen and I had 90% confidence it would.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Now compared to 00z last night. Definite move to Euro

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/084/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting also how much lower heights are across BC/AB isn't it? Just like the Euro

[Deweydog]

Definite minor improvements.  Quicker and a teency bit colder.  Go NAM!

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison. Block sitting more upright/better tilt, just like Euro. Differences really showing now.

 

00z last night

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

and now 12z today

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/084/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 model comparison

 

12z today

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

and 00z last night

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/108/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Almost entirely to the Euro. That abrupt shift I was expecting appears to be unfolding.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[crf450ish]

So, king EURO is leading the way?

[Trainwreck]

SE ridge is a little stronger as well

[Gradient Keeper]

So, king EURO is leading the way?

Without a doubt

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Roads are a mess this morning 2 cars in the ditch and 2 rollovers between my house and Silverton.

[snow drift]

I love the trend.

[Front Ranger]

So it seems with this pattern, the GFS led the Euro in the long range, and now the Euro has led in the short/mid range. Isn't that what that graph posted last night indicated has been the tendency since the GFS update?

[Trainwreck]

I'm jackknifed on a hill inMadras right now. Waiting on a tow truck so I can finish my route. This sucks. I almost want warm and sunny now

[Deweydog]

Offshore flow is rolling pretty good by Monday morning as opposed to a trickle on the 0z.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 model comparison

 

 

Today's 12z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

and now last night's 00z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/132/500h_anom.na.png

[Kayla]

So it seems with this pattern, the GFS led the Euro in the long range, and now the Euro has led in the short/mid range. Isn't that what that graph posted last night indicated has been the tendency since the GFS update?

 

Yeah. Tough to beat the Euro in the mid range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm jackknifed on a hill inMadras right now. Waiting on a tow truck so I can finish my route. This sucks. I almost want warm and sunny now

Ugh I'm sorry. We had a very heavy shower last night then clearing. Everything froze immediately.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hr 132 significantly colder

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122812/gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

[Jesse]

Well well well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison. PDX thickness 513 Day 5, 6z had us around 521

[snow drift]

[FroYoBro]

I'm mostly just waiting for the 12z for Wednessday. I heard that will be the most accurate model run. 

 

I knew it. We are locked in now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exciting developments