Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 9 571dam heights over Anchorage... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/228/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Probably best GFS run in a long time, but do we trust it with it being so inconsistent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GFS in 4 hours 35 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 New post from Michael Ventrice regarding our ridge that's going to build to our NW. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice "The latest ECMWF Ens has trended much stronger with North Pacific "Date-line" ridge that is expected to set up shop late Dec-early Jan." https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814075235389571073 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 New post from Michael Ventrice regarding our ridge that's going to build to our NW. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice "The latest ECMWF Ens has trended much stronger with North Pacific "Date-line" ridge that is expected to set up shop late Dec-early Jan." https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/814075235389571073That block is going to be off the charts, literally! Sounds very promising for us. Get those heights over Anchorage around 564-570dm and our odds increase for a significant blast/prolonged cold spell. 12z Euro today may be magical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 ❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄ -Model Countdown- Next up.... *12z GFS in 3 hours 10 minutes 12z GEM in 4 hours 10 minutes 12z ECMWF in 5 hours 28 minutes ❄❄❄ Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 IR Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12 There's our ridge now intensifying near 175 W, 40 N. This is what morphs into the Mega Goliath Behemoth block http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_common/201612281130_ir.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 We also haven't seen a significantly -PNA January (below -1.00) since 1972 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table I think that's going to change this winter. Guess you could say we were due.We got to get the monkey off our back! I feel satisfied with all other months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 It will get cold early next week. That isn't the issue. I just wonder if it will be long lasting. I would feel better if there was a distinct SE ridge showing up in the models during the long term. I'm concerned about the cold event turning into a glancing blow with a ridge parked over us later on. I've seen it happen in past Januaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Been really busy with guests... I have been checking the models periodically but its more fun just to read through this drama every morning. They leave tomorrow so I will be able to focus on the details better. Going skiing again today in what I hope are awesome conditions up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Should be a great day, skies cleared and the temp dropped to 28 this morning, beautiful crisp and cold. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 HR 36 upper low/cut-off closes off sooner. Hmmm http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/036/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 New info from Medford NWS. I like this! GO Euro !Confidence in the forecast details beyond Monday is low, but there is still general model agreement in a drier but much colder period of weather into mid-week. The forecast leans toward the less progressive/colder ECMWF solution. If this scenario does in fact transpire. It could bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far with the ECMWF indicating west side lows in the teens... locally in the single digits and below zero readings on the east side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Can already tell the GFS is holding its ground. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Alright! cut-off is 200 miles further west than 00z! Trending to Euro I believe!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 2 cut-off almost centered right under the block like the Euro. I said this was going to happen and I had 90% confidence it would. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/048/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/072/500h_anom.na.png Now compared to 00z last night. Definite move to Eurohttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/084/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Interesting also how much lower heights are across BC/AB isn't it? Just like the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Definite minor improvements. Quicker and a teency bit colder. Go NAM! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Model comparison. Block sitting more upright/better tilt, just like Euro. Differences really showing now. 00z last nighthttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.png and now 12z todayhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/084/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 4 model comparison 12z todayhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/096/500h_anom.na.png and 00z last nighthttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/108/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Almost entirely to the Euro. That abrupt shift I was expecting appears to be unfolding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 So, king EURO is leading the way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 SE ridge is a little stronger as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 So, king EURO is leading the way?Without a doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Roads are a mess this morning 2 cars in the ditch and 2 rollovers between my house and Silverton. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I love the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 So it seems with this pattern, the GFS led the Euro in the long range, and now the Euro has led in the short/mid range. Isn't that what that graph posted last night indicated has been the tendency since the GFS update? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm jackknifed on a hill inMadras right now. Waiting on a tow truck so I can finish my route. This sucks. I almost want warm and sunny now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Offshore flow is rolling pretty good by Monday morning as opposed to a trickle on the 0z. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Day 5 model comparison Today's 12zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.png and now last night's 00zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/132/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 So it seems with this pattern, the GFS led the Euro in the long range, and now the Euro has led in the short/mid range. Isn't that what that graph posted last night indicated has been the tendency since the GFS update? Yeah. Tough to beat the Euro in the mid range. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm jackknifed on a hill inMadras right now. Waiting on a tow truck so I can finish my route. This sucks. I almost want warm and sunny nowUgh I'm sorry. We had a very heavy shower last night then clearing. Everything froze immediately. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hr 132 significantly colder http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122812/gfs_T850_nwus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Well well well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Model comparison. PDX thickness 513 Day 5, 6z had us around 521 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm mostly just waiting for the 12z for Wednessday. I heard that will be the most accurate model run. I knew it. We are locked in now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Exciting developments Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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