December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Have you made contingency travel arrangements yet for getting around? I don't want to see anyone stuck.

I will be posting a public service announcement on social media later tonight.

[Jesse]

The ensemble mean for Prince George, BC in the long range is quite the spectacle.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF dumps about a foot of snow here on Saturday into Sunday morning... 1-2 inches in the Seattle area as well.

[HighlandExperience]

00Z ECMWF dumps about a foot of snow here on Saturday into Sunday morning... 1-2 inches in the Seattle area as well.

You mind posting the wxbell map

[ShawniganLake]

00Z ECMWF dumps about a foot of snow here on Saturday into Sunday morning... 1-2 inches in the Seattle area as well.

I was actually just thinking, "Tim's probably gonna get 6" plus.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z ECMWF dumps about a foot of snow here on Saturday into Sunday morning... 1-2 inches in the Seattle area as well.

 

EURO looks pretty good here too. A little better than the WRF. 

[Deweydog]

That little guy? Don't worry about that little guy...

[ShawniganLake]

That little guy? Don't worry about that little guy...

Well now I am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro shows sub-zero dp's in the Willamette Valley Tuesday morning. 

[Dave]

Euro shows sub-zero dp's in the Willamette Valley Tuesday morning. 

Will someone please deliver some snowfall?  Snow cover is needed.  Eugene hasn't been below 0 for over 3 years.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

the little guy?  

 

 

[Kayla]

Euro shows sub-zero dp's in the Willamette Valley Tuesday morning. 

 

Dp's are actually at or below zero from Tuesday morning into Friday morning on this run. Pretty dry, arctic airmass.

[Deweydog]

Euro shows sub-zero dp's in the Willamette Valley Tuesday morning.

Yeah, the Euro is even better for sustained, deep northeasterly flow. With the downslope, things are ridiculously dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the Euro is even better for sustained, deep northeasterly flow. With the downslope, things are ridiculously dry.

 

Very December 2009ish

[Dave]

Yeah, the Euro is even better for sustained, deep northeasterly flow. With the downslope, things are ridiculously dry.

Sounds like a considerable amount of chapped lips and static door shocks are in our future.

[Timmy]

Euro does show snow Thursday-Friday, appears to be more for western washington.

Dusting at pdx, 5" in Kelso

[Deweydog]

Some retrogression of the block appears to be the message for later next week, at least for now.

[Timmy]

It wants to moderate pdx at day 9 some. Likely at least zr. I couldn't imagine it not being more snowy than that with that cold air entrenched.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It wants to moderate pdx at day 9 some. Likely at least zr. I couldn't imagine it not being more snowy than that with that cold air entrenched.

This is key.... Specially since cold air rapidly fills in behind any warm up.... It could be very interesting!

[Deweydog]

It wants to moderate pdx at day 9 some. Likely at least zr. I couldn't imagine it not being more snowy than that with that cold air entrenched.

I think you have it upside down. Low level warming, mid and upper levels would remain cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think starting late next week we are going to see a much more active period of weather with bitterly cold air just across the border in BC. I think we will see a good chance of snow events, but also periodic warm ups, should be a fun ride. 

[Timmy]

I think you have it upside down. Low level warming, mid and upper levels would remain cold.

I was thinking more wet bulbing, relatively weak low, gorge outflow. But we are splitting hairs 9-10 days away. I would tend to favor a snowier transition out of this cold of an airmass in this setup, as models tend to scour cold air too soon.

[chopper 918]

It wants to moderate pdx at day 9 some. Likely at least zr. I couldn't imagine it not being more snowy than that with that cold air entrenched.

Shows about -5 850's at day 9 then around -9 at day 10. Not a ZR sounding at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think you have it upside down. Low level warming, mid and upper levels would remain cold.

 

I brought up 12-17-08 on one of the fb groups...

 

The snow map for up here next weekend on the EURO is apocalyptic. 

[Kayla]

I think you have it upside down. Low level warming, mid and upper levels would remain cold.

 

Very low level. 925's never even go above 0. Have a tough time believing there is going to be a warm layer below 925mb height, but I suppose it's possible. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was thinking more wet bulbing, relatively weak low, gorge outflow. But we are splitting hairs 9-10 days away. I would tend to favor a snowier transition out of this cold of an airmass in this setup, as models tend to scour cold air too soon.

 

Day 9 would definitely be rain at the lowest levels...You would be buried in snow though...

[MossMan]

I think starting late next week we are going to see a much more active period of weather with bitterly cold air just across the border in BC. I think we will see a good chance of snow events, but also periodic warm ups, should be a fun ride.

All of us are going to be very sleep deprived by the end of this...in November I was in bed by 10pm not caring about what the 6z had to say! What a fun time it has been and is going to continue to be!!

[Kayla]

Shows about -5 850's at day 9 then around -9 at day 10. Not a ZR sounding at all.

 

Yeah worse case looks more like a sleet type sounding to me.

[stuffradio]

All of us are going to be very sleep deprived by the end of this...in November I was in bed by 10pm not caring about what the 6z had to say! What a fun time it has been and is going to continue to be!!

I don't listen to 6 zulu, but maybe I should!

[Deweydog]

Very low level. 925's never even go above 0. Have a tough time believing there is going to be a warm layer below 925mb height, but I suppose it's possible.

With the block retrograding NW, it will be tough to keep things from becoming overly exlosive to our north and creating southerly flow at the lower levels.

[Kayla]

Day 9 would definitely be rain at the lowest levels...You would be buried in snow though...

 

Not that it really matters because it's day 9 but 925mb temps do not go above freezing. Likely too thin of a warm layer for ZR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With the block retrograding NW, it will be tough to keep things from becoming overly exlosive to our north and creating southerly flow at the lower levels.

 

Best case scenario would probably be something like the long range GFS is showing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you have any hope for PDX snow Sunday the NAVGEM is your friend.

[Perturbed Member]

If you have any hope for PDX snow Sunday the NAVGEM is your friend.

 

Which pretty much means no hope right?

 

But yeah NAVGEM  continues to look good, king NAVGEM? Please?

[snow_wizard]

All of us are going to be very sleep deprived by the end of this...in November I was in bed by 10pm not caring about what the 6z had to say! What a fun time it has been and is going to continue to be!!

I can't believe this could be the first REAL January in nearly 50 years. I'm stoked!

[ShawniganLake]

6zzzzzz. Booo. Not so pretty.

[Goducks09]

6z that bad?

[TT-SEA]

You mind posting the wxbell map

 

 

Sorry... I was not ignoring you.   I posted that and went immediately to bed.   Skiing all day takes more of a toll than when I was younger.  

 

Here is the map....

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cleared out enough last night to hit a low of 28 under starry skies. Pretty decent with 850mb temps about +5C right now. Horse Creek just east of here at 3400' is 37 this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Running a monthly mean of 33.8 through this morning...Looks like this will end up as the 3rd coldest month since I moved here 6 years ago. Behind Dec 2013 and January 2013.