December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The GFS ensemble is clearly showing another cold shot around the 11th now. A mean of -8. Pretty similar to the ECMWF ensemble on the 0z. I bet the 12z ECMWF ensemble shows the same. Not that anyone will pay attention to this anyway, because I know the sky is falling.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

As someone wisely said earlier, chilly persistence is the overriding theme this winter.

[chopper 918]

No... only 42 and raining down there next Sunday on the 12Z ECMWF. Much better.

 

Then crashing down to 41 and raining on Monday. Lows in the upper 30s will feel chilly though!

Sorry, I misread and thought you were talking about next week during the week. Besides, whatever it says 8 days from now is suspect.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS ensemble is clearly showing another cold shot around the 11th now. A mean of -8. Pretty similar to the ECMWF ensemble on the 0z. I bet the 12z ECMWF ensemble shows the same. Not that anyone will pay attention to this anyway, because I know the sky is falling.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

There might be a tirade meltdown coming in the near future for you... and then the sky will be falling according to you and you will expect everyone to follow suit.   

[snow_wizard]

SAME THING HAPPENED IN JAN 1950, *******.

 

1916 also.  Warm interlude followed by more greatness.

[FroYoBro]

Well...I'm done on here today.  I'm going to enjoy my snow tonight and will be back tomorrow.  Just not worth putting up with all the negativity.

 

Hope you do well. Hopefully you can post some snow pictures tomorrow morning. 

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Snowing in Longview at sea level fyi.

[snow_wizard]

As someone wisely said earlier, chilly persistence is the overriding theme this winter.

 

Yup.  I just hate it when people are like this.  Totally ridiculous.

[snow_wizard]

Snowing in Longview at sea level fyi.

 

Nah...it must be somebody dropping cotton balls out of a plane.

[Deweydog]

We've had something frozenish coming down here.

[Phil]

Problems obvious early on. Borderline but dangerous.

 

You have a near-vertically stacked PV and STJ putting the squeeze on the blocking/wavebreaking regime. End result is everything slides east as the underbelly trough bifurcates.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/3C964C1A-B90E-404C-A8AA-792F1E3DD51B_zpsxn31werr.png

[Farmboy]

Well...I'm done on here today.  I'm going to enjoy my snow tonight and will be back tomorrow.  Just not worth putting up with all the negativity.

Same here, looking forward to enjoying the snow and cold the next three days.  This place is nuts.

[MikeBC]

The arctic front is in the northwest of Vancouver. I like the look of the two bunches of moisture are about to get smashed from northwest and southwest. The radar has a good show today.

 

It's snowing in South Surrey, close to the border in the west end.

[Deweydog]

Problems obvious early on. Borderline but dangerous.

 

You have a near-vertically stacked PV and STJ putting the squeeze on the block/wavebreaking regime.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/3C964C1A-B90E-404C-A8AA-792F1E3DD51B_zpsxn31werr.png

Ya think?????

[snow_wizard]

The arctic front is in the of northwest Vancouver. I like the look of the two bunches of moisture are about to get smashed from northwest and southwest. The radar has a good show today.

 

It's snowing in South Surrey, close to the border in the west end.

 

A radar malfunction over the next 24 hours would really drive some people over the edge I bet.

[Front Ranger]

We've had something frozenish coming down here.

 

According to Tim, you are out of luck if you expect it to stay frozenish through tomorrow's balminess. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amature hr. I think i am going to call the Nws and complain about what they did to the models.

[Deweydog]

According to Tim, you are out of luck if you expect it to stay frozenish through tomorrow's balminess.

Tim doesn't control the weather. We'll be well above freezing here tomorrow with or without his blessing.

[Heavy Snow]

Problems obvious early on. Borderline but dangerous.

 

You have a near-vertically stacked PV and STJ putting the squeeze on the blocking/wavebreaking regime. End result is everything slides east as the underbelly trough bifurcates.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/3C964C1A-B90E-404C-A8AA-792F1E3DD51B_zpsxn31werr.png

I should have known this was going to happen. Joe Bastardi said it on WeatherBell and that ridging would go over the PNW. I will never dismiss what Joe Bastardi says for now on.

[Front Ranger]

Problems obvious early on. Borderline but dangerous.

 

You have a near-vertically stacked PV and STJ putting the squeeze on the blocking/wavebreaking regime. End result is everything slides east as the underbelly trough bifurcates.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/3C964C1A-B90E-404C-A8AA-792F1E3DD51B_zpsxn31werr.png

 

I've been suspicious of that cutoff low all along. Most great Pacific blocking patterns didn't have it, instead opting for a much weaker low further southwest near Hawaii (Kona).

[snow_wizard]

Same here, looking forward to enjoying the snow and cold the next three days.  This place is nuts.

 

I just can't believe the gnashing of teeth going on about progs a week out in such a complex pattern.  The chances for a good outcome are still high IMO.  The models have consistently put too much emphasis on offshore cutoff lows this season.  We saw that a while back with the event that is about to unfold.  As long as the blocking structure is there we're in business.

[Phil]

The GFS has abandoned the PV attack for the most part. Now forecasted to remain much stronger than normal during climo peak. The strong midwinter PV has been a recurring theme in recent years.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Timmy]

I'm ready for summer, 80-90 degrees with full sunshine is going to feel good.

do I sense a name change coming???

[Front Ranger]

Tim doesn't control the weather. We'll be well above freezing here tomorrow with or without his blessing.

 

That's right. He's just God's messenger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wunderground now saying much more snow here over the next week with lows in the teens. 

 

Oh forgot to mention last night I had about 0.10" of snow. It stopped by around 8pm and cleared.

 

My condolences 

[snow_wizard]

I should have known this was going to happen. Joe Bastardi said it on WeatherBell and that ridging would go over the PNW. I will never dismiss what Joe Bastardi says for now on.

 

Oh brother.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing here. And i am less than 750ft. Wtf

[Front Ranger]

I just can't believe the gnashing of teeth going on about progs a week out in such a complex pattern.  The chances for a good outcome are still high IMO.  The models have consistently put too much emphasis on offshore cutoff lows this season.  We saw that a while back with the event that is about to unfold.  As long as the blocking structure is there we're in business.

 

The Euro shows both the PNA and EPO tanked through most of the run. Getting through that without any snow would really be threading the needle!

[Phil]

I'm ready for summer, 80-90 degrees with full sunshine is going to feel good.

No...no no no no no no no.

[Deweydog]

Snowing here. And i am less than 750ft. Wtf

Cool low level air mass. It's looked for several days like precip could start today as snow/sleet for many.

[snow_wizard]

I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow.  Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle.  It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry.  FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS fully believes the roads will be bad Monday from the packed snow from the 1-3 inches they think Portland/North valley could magically get.

 

"Temperatures will drop below freezing early Sunday evening, and stay

there through Monday for most areas. So, roads likely to stay slick
and icy/snowpacked during that time, making for hazardous driving
conditions."

 

 

Getting real hard to take these guys seriously. I'm not sure any model supports the outcome they are going with.

[Deweydog]

I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow. Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle. It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry. FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.

I think 35-36 is a good call for SeaTac.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro shows both the PNA and EPO tanked through most of the run. Getting through that without any snow would really be threading the needle!

 

Absolutely.  The EPO and PNA both being tanked is a great recipe for us.  As strong an anti ridge signature as you could ever want for the NW.  In fact the index forecasts are as good as they were when the models were orgasmic.  The analog compotes also are.  Maybe something to that?

[TT-SEA]

I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow.  Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle.  It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry.  FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.

Will not be a dry air mass.

[Timmy Supercell]

My condolences 

 

lol Jesse is that you?

 

Just pointing out a major difference from the cold/dry to now wetter/warmer.

[Front Ranger]

Cool low level air mass. It's looked for several days like precip could start today as snow/sleet for many.

 

Portland NWS really missed an opportunity here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dense fog and 29 right now.

[Heavy Snow]

Oh brother.

The east coast always wins. It's not our fault we live in the PNW. If we lived in the Midwest or East Coast we would look like geniuses.

[snow_wizard]

I think 35-36 is a good call for SeaTac.

 

That with dps in the 20s should preserve the snow pretty well I would think.

 

I think Tim takes a perverse pleasure in knowing he will have good snow cover no matter what and then making the case nobody else will.

[Phil]

I've been suspicious of that cutoff low all along. Most great Pacific blocking patterns didn't have it, instead opting for a much weaker low further southwest near Hawaii (Kona).

True, but with the broad Hadley Cells today, the entire interactive NPAC structure will often be shifted poleward. So, I wasn't surprised to see it there.

 

If the polar/NAM domain had been more favorable, this would have unfolded much differently IMO.