jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 00z GFS...another look...would be a nice warning snow system for many in the region...from what I can tell, the wave does not split or elongate in the Plains and bundles the energy better this run. Yeah, I thought this looked more worthy of the title "Snowstorm" than "Snow Event" Actual cold air in place. NAM HR 84: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016120706/084/refcmp_ptype.conus.png Go NAM! I love you NAM. (that's a nice looking precip shield btw) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 DMX not biting on the high qpf.....but still says headlines may be needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 LOT's early take... Where things differ is in the strength of the upper flow pattern andwhether a surface low will completely develop over our area asthe GFS/GEM say, vs remaining as an inverted trough axis like theEC before the surface low develops to our east. This leads tosignificant differences in the strength and timing of forcing andtherefore associated QPF, with the GFS double the amounts of theEC (more in some places), and spread in GEFS ensembles of 0.2 to 1inch of QPF. The GFS ensemble mean is around 0.55 and the Euroensemble mean is around 0.3. Therefore while forecasting amountsare futile at this juncture, no matter how you paint it,accumulating snowfall of at least several inches is expectedduring this time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 00z EURO with a general 3-4" event for most of us. I can only paste a local blow up shot of Chicago... SREF's for ORD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 MPX's take this morning: A check of the CIPS analogs using the two windows that cover ourarea yielded two analogs that have a similar upper air/H85 pattern.Although they were both in the bottom five of the analogs, theprecipitation pattern more closely matches what the currentsolutions are showing. The top analogs just either didn`t showmuch snow or the orientation of the snow was wrong with thepattern unfolding. The one analog was 12/09/2008 with the secondbeing 11/29/1988. This would suggest the heaviest snow across thesouthern third of MN/northern IA and adjoining areas of westcentral WI with amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range. The high endamounts may end up near the I-90 corridor and a winter storm watchmay be needed if noted trends stabilize. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeah, I thought this looked more worthy of the title "Snowstorm" than "Snow Event" Actual cold air in place. Go NAM! I love you NAM. (that's a nice looking precip shield btw) I'm still trying to figure out how to do that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I'm liking the earlier onset of the snow as well as the long duration of this event. As of 6z anywhere from 8-14" looks like a good bet from the Dakotas to Illinois. System sure is gaining strenght/wetter with each model run. Have not looked at the Euro run but I guess from what I have read there is no need at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Its looking very impressive for the weekend system. Good thing is that cold air will be in place. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeah, I thought this looked more worthy of the title "Snowstorm" than "Snow Event" Actual cold air in place. Go NAM! I love you NAM. (that's a nice looking precip shield btw) Yup, that is a good shield of precipitation knocking into MI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 NAM is quite a ways north but its take it with a grain of salt timeframe for the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Its looking very impressive for the weekend system. Good thing is that cold air will be in place.And if we do get this weekend storm just imagine how cold it can get for next week...brrrrr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 And if we do get this weekend storm just imagine how cold it can get for next week...brrrrr.It will be brutal for many on this forum and to top it all off, a real big storm will be eyeing us down in the 4 corners region. So, you can only imagine the snow ratios. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Alright, need the 12z to start coming back south again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GFS still coming in juicy...nice hit N IA/S MN through HR 90.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nearly identical to the 06z run...weakens a bit as it heads eastward...ground temps should maintain in the 20's from N IL on north so better snow ratios will occur if trends continue...that's a nasty cut-off for IA and C IL.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 So is the cmc a bad model or what?? Do we just go by the gfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Wish it wouldn't weaken so much as it moves East. Either way this might be the biggest storm I've seen since 2013/2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GFS total precip...prob thinking 12:1 - 14:1 snow ratios...850's near -8C or colder with 528 thickness for the majority of the snow event... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120712/gfs_apcpn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nice... I think we can officially rule this one out for us out here, given the consistency of it being north. Dang storm. Couldn't be a more perfect track for us either. Just a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Why on earth is Linn county ALWAYS the cutoff, where airport gets 2" and the north part gets 10" Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nearly identical to the 06z run...weakens a bit as it heads eastward...ground temps should maintain in the 20's from N IL on north so better snow ratios will occur if trends continue...that's a nasty cut-off for IA and C IL.... Most likely cause?? The only time I like a cutoff is when it's on a nice pair of women's legs. Not in a storm, not on the road, not at the bar. Cutoffs are brutal with that lone exception! ROFLMAO! So is the cmc a bad model or what?? Do we just go by the gfs? What. Read somewhere else (JB?) that the CMC Op isn't doing great (new computer in the works btw) but the CMC Ensembles actually verify much better. Tom, can you see/get them?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 So, how many hours until that circled area in eastern SD has their snow? Feel pretty good that if that portion happens as portrayed, the rest plays out as well. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 So, how many hours until that circled area in eastern SD has their snow? Feel pretty good that if that portion happens as portrayed, the rest plays out as well. 20161207 GFS 12z 105hr SNfall.JPGI agree its really not that far out but the models are all over the place still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 So, how many hours until that circled area in eastern SD has their snow? Feel pretty good that if that portion happens as portrayed, the rest plays out as well. 20161207 GFS 12z 105hr SNfall.JPG78-84 HR's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GGEM a bit weaker but generally lining up with the GFS on placement of the snow swath...better love for IA folks and downstate IL... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120712/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I will accept either one. Also, ratios will be a little better farther north so add some to those totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 2m temps at onset of snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 2m temps at onset of snowGFS slightly warmer. Probably why it is a little firther north with a little more juice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 GEFS seem to be trending slightly drier. But not by much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_17.png GEFS suggesting 4-8" in the heaviest band??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GGEM a bit weaker but generally lining up with the GFS on placement of the snow swath...better love for IA folks and downstate IL... No idea how PW gets those totals with this amount of QPF: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 No idea how PW gets those totals with this amount of QPF: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120712/gem_apcpn_us_16.pngBullish on snow ratios, but I doubt they are that high anyway... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 So the 12z NAM and GFS are in the more northern camp through hour 84. Now the 12z GGEM is more like the 0z Euro with a bit less precip and a bit south. You knew this wouldn't be easy. Those big 1030mb highs in southern Canada have me a little concerned that this thing can't stay as far north as some models are showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I agree its really not that far out but the models are all over the place still Perhaps due to this? Any truth to the possibility that this a 2-wave event?? NAVGEM is similar to Euro with a 1-2 punch...northern piece moves through on Sunday & then the southern energy rides up on Sun. night/Monday... 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Perhaps due to this? Any truth to the possibility that this a 2-wave event??Sweet! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 78-84 HR's... 12km NAM with a massive snow shield in that time frame Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro coming in juicier for us in central Iowa, still not a monster but at least it's more than the two hundredths from 0z. Up to near a third of an inch qpf through midnight Sunday night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 @ Tom I keep getting upload errors. The size it wants to allow keeps getting smaller and smaller. Is there a daily limit or something?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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