WBadgersW Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 If this map is correct, this will be my first 6" storm in 2 years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not bad first 2 weeks of winter a wwa and a wsw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ive just been upgraded to Warning! 6-9" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not sure what the timing was expected to be. Nothing here yet north of the Twin Cities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just put my finishing touches on my Christmas lights/decor. While I was doing that, I can't help but admire the anticipation of an approaching Winter Storm. The cloud deck is lowering, calm winds, frozen ground and I picked/raked some leaves on the yard. Let it Snow! Let it Snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Have a house full of people on their way over. Tom n Jerry's, brandy slush and Gluehwein. 4in of snow and a packer game tomorrow...Christmas came early! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not sure what the timing was expected to be. Nothing here yet north of the Twin Cities.Where are you at? Been snowing here in Roseville for about 45 minutes. Nothing heavy but visibility has lowered quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Some very interesting maps that Skilling posted regarding the storm. N IL/N IN/S MI may be in line for a pretty narly snow storm. This is a spectacular representation of the storm's vertical motion field and of its "dendritic growth zone". Boiled down to basics, the -12 and -18-degree Celsius temp zone is where snowflake formation is most prolific (the numbers on the left side of this graphic) indicate pressure levels--which is a nice way of saying, they show us the height in the atmosphere. 850, for instance, refers to 850 mb which occurs around 5,000 ft above sea level; 700 mb refers to 10,000ft.; 500mb to 18,000ft; 300 mb to 30,000 ft. and so forth. That the strongest lift (indicated by the green shading) brings moisture aloft into the dendritic growth zone (the area between the -12 and -18-degree isotherms) means snow formation will be ongoing with vigor over an extended period in this storm. The actual times are indicated at the bottom of this graphic. 10:1 snow ratios NAM-WRF model... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 That was quick...first flurries falling out of the sky! No problem with virga here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 From Skilling.... Now the fun part. Looking at just how nature's putting our big snow together. Caution: If you're not into the technical details, you can skip this one. But for my fellow weather nerds, this is fascinating stuff--and the snow which is coming together has, in many respects, a textbook look to it. To produce a big snow, cold temps, a generous flow of incoming moisture and the means to lift and cool this moisture are essential--and they're all present! We've also gained quite an insight over the years into the physics of snowflake formation--what are referred to as "dendrite" formation prospects and efficiency. Just how snowflakes form and their fluffiness is critical in how much snow accumulates. Fluffy snowflakes generate more volume and therefore higher accumulations. You often hear 1" of water produces 10" of snow. That's the 10 to 1 snow/water ratio you hear referred to so frequently. But that's just an average. Snows which occur in colder temps are fluffier. You can therefore end up with more the 10" of snow from an inch of water in colder snows--and the current situation is in that league. We may end up with the equivalent to as much as 12 to 14--possibly evening 15" of snow per inch out of this snowstorm. Here's the graphic we put together laying out the atmospheric set-up with this storm at work to produce the snow which is on the way in simplified form for our Chicago Tribune weather page and our Chicago Weather Center blog post. It depicts the role of the jet stream in making this happen. We're sitting beneath right flank entry region of a jet stream wind speed. As air parcels accelerate into that wind max, mass is removed at jet stream level encouraging air to rise on a massive scale. You can see the low level flow into the area in another of the accompanying maps. Additional lift is generated as the incoming "warm", moist air glides up the dome of cold air in which we're situated. And check out the moisture this system has available to it--more than 0.6" of evaporated water flooding in from the south. There marriage of all these elements underpin the development of generous snows! But here's the kicker. All this moisture is being lifted into at atmosphere built for snowflake formation. Our models offer us a calculation of what's called the "dendritic growth zone"--the so-called DGZ. Sounds complicated--but it's actually the region above us which is best suited for snowflake formation. And when that zone of temps (-12 to -18-degrees Celsius) occurs in the region of maximum lift (i.e. vertical velocity) in a storm--wall-ah!! Snow forms and flutters to earth. And there you have it--a summary of the meteorological elements at work to produce this weekend's snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 From Skilling.... Now the fun part. Looking at just how nature's putting our big snow together. Caution: If you're not into the technical details, you can skip this one. But for my fellow weather nerds, this is fascinating stuff--and the snow which is coming together has, in many respects, a textbook look to it. To produce a big snow, cold temps, a generous flow of incoming moisture and the means to lift and cool this moisture are essential--and they're all present! We've also gained quite an insight over the years into the physics of snowflake formation--what are referred to as "dendrite" formation prospects and efficiency. Just how snowflakes form and their fluffiness is critical in how much snow accumulates. Fluffy snowflakes generate more volume and therefore higher accumulations. You often hear 1" of water produces 10" of snow. That's the 10 to 1 snow/water ratio you hear referred to so frequently. But that's just an average. Snows which occur in colder temps are fluffier. You can therefore end up with more the 10" of snow from an inch of water in colder snows--and the current situation is in that league. We may end up with the equivalent to as much as 12 to 14--possibly evening 15" of snow per inch out of this snowstorm. Here's the graphic we put together laying out the atmospheric set-up with this storm at work to produce the snow which is on the way in simplified form for our Chicago Tribune weather page and our Chicago Weather Center blog post. It depicts the role of the jet stream in making this happen. We're sitting beneath right flank entry region of a jet stream wind speed. As air parcels accelerate into that wind max, mass is removed at jet stream level encouraging air to rise on a massive scale. You can see the low level flow into the area in another of the accompanying maps. Additional lift is generated as the incoming "warm", moist air glides up the dome of cold air in which we're situated. And check out the moisture this system has available to it--more than 0.6" of evaporated water flooding in from the south. There marriage of all these elements underpin the development of generous snows! But here's the kicker. All this moisture is being lifted into at atmosphere built for snowflake formation. Our models offer us a calculation of what's called the "dendritic growth zone"--the so-called DGZ. Sounds complicated--but it's actually the region above us which is best suited for snowflake formation. And when that zone of temps (-12 to -18-degrees Celsius) occurs in the region of maximum lift (i.e. vertical velocity) in a storm--wall-ah!! Snow forms and flutters to earth. And there you have it--a summary of the meteorological elements at work to produce this weekend's snow.There you are! I was just thinking about you and how the latest developments are now putting your area in possibly the hardest hit region. Got your snow blower/shovels ready?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hi Tom, yea been reading your guys post all week at work but didn't have time to post anything. Yea I am all ready to roll!! This storm couldn't have played out more perfectly!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Correct me if I'm but I don't see much lake effect for us on this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Correct me if I'm but I don't see much lake effect for us on this stormUnfortunately, no there isn't. Not the typical storm that tracks to our SE and produces a northerly fetch off the lake. Just be glad we are getting all snow with a system that tracks to our north! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 More moisture predicted for SEMI now. I am in the swath of 6-12 inches. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 It's awesome to see back 2 back systems where the NWS offices bump up their snow fall totals as a system approaches instead of decreasing!We've been in a great era of high moisture and storms that are coming together in timely fashion for our region vs dying out or phasing east of us, I said this felt like '78-79 and up pops that Chicago record in play! Spooky 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 More moisture predicted for SEMI now. I am in the swath of 6-12 inches. Congrats! That TV Met may not eat Crow after all Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Congrats! That TV Met may not eat Crow after all You should do well also, if, not better. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Congrats! That TV Met may not eat Crow after allI said it was ballsy to say 12+ on tv with that lead time. You know how the general public takes that. 12+ is still going to be hard to come by outside of lake enhanced areas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I said it was ballsy to say 12+ on tv with that lead time. You know how the general public takes that. 12+ is still going to be hard to come by outside of lake enhanced areasThoughts on Saturday system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Thoughts on Saturday system?Hope it doesnt cut to hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hope it doesnt cut to hard.Agreed but I think that will be tough to do with strong high pressure and good snowcover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Anyone know what we can expect w/ radar trends? Is this current band going to keep progressing west to east, or is it expected to pivot at some point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Agreed but I think that will be tough to do with strong high pressure and good snowcoverSleet/freezing.rain/snow/rain all on the table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 You should do well also, if, not better. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Radar is looking iffy, redevelopment is taking longer than projected by the HRRR Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 What a pattern. A storm every 3-4 days, and quite possibly a 4th weekend storm for the Christmas Holiday. I don't ever recall a winter starting off like this. For those who were around in the late 70's, is this a comparable start if these storms come to fruition? Hypothetically speaking.Christmas recess 1978 was the only holiday season growing up that my buddy & I were able to use snowshoes....in SWMI no less! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 If it doesn't start filling in or rotate this will be over here in a half hour here and a couple hours in Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Thats what I afraid of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 I'm about to get into those 20-30dbz returns...might be ripping for a bit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Stopped snowing here. About 2 inches imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Radar looks really good for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Radar looks really good for hereSolid here as well. Cautiously optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 I'm sitting at 1.3 inches, from 0.06" precip. We'll probably get a couple more inches later. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Solid here as well. Cautiously optimisticSome good flakes coming down and returns don't look that strong I'm optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 This stuff is real fluffy...reminds me of lake effect snow...quarter size flakes, not a lot of wind...snow globe atmosphere. Roads are getting really slick on such a cold surface. Just measured 1.5" on my deck...looking at the radar, looks like it's starting to fill in towards C IA....and back building in NW IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 hoping for no Dry Slots as it tries to fill in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Kind of a joke to see snow fall maps from IWX, DTX, & CLE all showing 8-12 over SWMI yet GRR has me for 5-9"... WPÇ maps have me in heavy snow for 3 periods as well? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 Pixie dust disaster here. It's been snowing for about 4 hours and I have 0.25". Might hit 2" by late tomorrow at this rate. Lol. Roads are quite slippery though due to the very cold temps today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2016 Report Share Posted December 11, 2016 0z NAM is not coming in correctly apparently... There might be issues with the NAM? can't confirm this though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.