CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 There will be some interesting AFD discos this afternoon...every snow weenie in each local NWS office will pick their favorite model and run with it!I follow 3 local NWS offices, North Platte NE, Hastings NE, and Goodland KS. They are each fairly different in their analysis and forecasts. Hastings- very conservative, Goodland- usually very aggressive, North Platte- seems to be more in the middle. There are good and bad in each one of these, but not always sure who "gets it right" most of the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 so If I am follwing you guys correclty this could be an all out blizzard or rain for my area LOL!You and I are riding the edge in terms of it being a mix or all snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 This could be a good run for the central Plains states... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png Based on this map, looks like the rain/snow line cuts through somewhere in Chicago/DTX... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121312/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png From what I can tell, 12z Euro tracks from south of Denver, towards STL/C IN/N OH... Welcome to the (South) party Euro! The BSR says "hello there, where ya been??" 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hey, where in northwest Indiana are you?Schererville Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Welcome to the (South) party Euro! The BSR says "hello there, where ya been??" 20161207 BSR map for 17-Dec.JPGGreat position of the Low. @Tom With that track, you should be all snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 ScherervilleOh wow. Hi neighbor. Fwiw, my current expectation is snow changing to ice and then possibly rain. Too early to get into any amounts. One thing I'd point out is that the magnitude of the cold air moving in plus little time for moderation before the storm suggests that surfaces could remain icy even awhile after it would potentially get above freezing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Oh wow. Hi neighbor. Fwiw, my current expectation is snow changing to ice and then possibly rain. Too early to get into any amounts. One thing I'd point out is that the magnitude of the cold air moving in plus little time for moderation before the storm suggests that surfaces could remain icy even awhile after it would potentially get above freezing.Never realized you were from NWI since we "Regio Rats" up here are not considered "hoosiers" by the folks down south LOL.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Never realized you were from NWI since we "Regio Rats" up here are not considered "hoosiers" by the folks down south LOL....Well I've been around the state but the farthest south I've lived is Lafayette. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The powder on the N side of this in the WAA is going to be very impressive for mid DEC,,, even impressive for the dead of winter. Ratios in some cases will be +20:1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Well I've been around the state but the farthest south I've lived is Lafayette.Well from what I have been told anyone outside of Lake and Porter Counties can call themselves Hoosiers so Lafayette counts LOL!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 OK, can we have this turn into an all out "Blizzard" and bury the lakes. Now, where can I sign for that??!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 OK, can we have this turn into an all out "Blizzard" and bury the lakes. Now, where can I sign for that??!! Get the petition ready Niko I will sign it...I don't remember if I have asked you this before but are you Greek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 All I am hearing is "south, south, south"... Not sure I like how that will fair for me up here. Looks like the GFS is my friend at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Here is the 12z Euro through hour 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 oops forgot to attach it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Still not much precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 oops forgot to attach itS/C Wisco special on that map! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I think MKE/MSN are sitting very pretty...EURO/GFS at this range agreeing somewhere where the heaviest band sets up...now, if the lake can become involed...lookout WI shoreline! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 oops forgot to attach itThanks for the map!!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Must be almost completely WAA snows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 This system looks and feels very similar to last weekends storm and I think I remember the GFS did much better placing the WAA snows?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 ..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh?? From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. At some point...it just seems like there's no point to even bother measuring snow. It's deep. I can't even keep up with it anymore...it just keeps snowing...sometimes it drops a ton, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it's all fluff, sometimes it isn't. It's hard for me to reconcile the weirdness of this degree of snow...with any sort of functional meaning for a person viewing the stats at a later date. I'm guessing the best thing to really say is that it snow, it snows often...and it normally snows this many days during this month, this month, etc. We got 30 inches the other night. It shut down the town. We got 8 inches yday morning...then it snowed 8-10 inches last night...now it's snowing a ton more.I have lost count and I can't even think of a reason to bother recording it anymore. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 ..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh?? From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives. Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream. Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation). Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow. Quite the sight to see. The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way. Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives. Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream. Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation). Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow. Quite the sight to see. The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way. Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range. Yep, been there once (July '90) and that giant ruler has the all-time record shown of 396" in, you guessed it, 1978-79 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit.. @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Get the petition ready Niko I will sign it...I don't remember if I have asked you this before but are you Greek?Yes I am! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit.. 20161213 Euro 12z 96hr 850mb & MSLP.JPG @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?) 20161213 NAM 12km 12z 84hr Surf.JPThat is a ton of moisture. Holy macro! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hopefully those winds are propagating down to the surface just a bit.. 20161213 Euro 12z 96hr 850mb & MSLP.JPG @ NAM (bigger than GHD-1?) 20161213 NAM 12km 12z 84hr Surf.JPGGHD if I remeber correclty we were tracking that storm 7 days out..I think for the most part it stayed course for most of those 7 days. I remember looking at 30" totals obviously we didn't come close to that snowfall but it was hell of a week tracking it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 TWC @ it again Winter Storm Decima to Bring a Cross-Country Mess of Snow and Ice to the West, Midwest and Northeast Into the Weekend Here's to "Decima" being the decimater of us all! (see what I did there??) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yes I am! thought so I am as well ...100% second generation. where is your family from in Greece? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I visited there a number of years ago and went skiing to a place near Houghton, MI which is in the vicinity of where this person lives. Once you start driving up towards the U.P. the landscape is literally a snow lovers dream. Pine trees draped with snow, perfectly curved mounds of snow along ice free creeks, houses literally have snow up to their roofs and you can go sledding down them (I think its actually a benefit to them and can be construed as insulation). Once you cross over the bridge into Houghton, that little town is just a massive blanket of snow. Quite the sight to see. The hilly terrain also acts as "lift" and it pukes snow up that way. Also, I remember a road into the peninsula that had a 40ft ruler on the side of the road and at that time it was measuring total snowfall somewhere in the 20Ft range.Here is some more information on the "snow thermometer" it is in a road side park on US 41 https://www.travelblog.org/Photos/4582170 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 That is a ton of moisture. Holy macro!The GOM is wide open for business with this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Here is some more information on the "snow thermometer" it is in a road side park on US 41https://www.travelblog.org/Photos/4582170Thanks for sharing! Not quite 40ft, but close! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 A terrible problem to have. ..and then there's some folks out there with this "problem". Too much white gold?? Huh?? From a poster in the Keweenaw, a first season transplant, lol what a year to go there. PV meets extra warm GL's Dude's gonna watch his house disappear. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z Euro was a bettet ran than 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro/GGEM/GFS all with 12+ for EC WI Looking good so far 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 GHD if I remeber correclty we were tracking that storm 7 days out..I think for the most part it stayed course for most of those 7 days. I remember looking at 30" totals obviously we didn't come close to that snowfall but it was hell of a week tracking it. This time around, we were gladly pre-occupied with another storm hitting @ 7 days out, much better! Besides, the point is that map shows snow falling from SC to N Caliin a continous swath! I've never seen anything close to that portrayed except maybe in somebody's fake wx image they made up using photo shop Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 All models showing 8+ for N IA. Id take that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 thought so I am as well ...100% second generation. where is your family from in Greece? Cool dude......Chios! What about you? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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