12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

It was drizzling heavily when I got out of Star Wars an hour ago, despite it being only 18 degrees.  It switched to a fine dusty snow when I got home.

[WBadgersW]

Getting close to the 3" mark. Bit surprised by how wet the snow is.

[Madtown]

2.7" here very wet snow here

[Tom]

We have powder down here...its rather odd you guys up north have wetter snow...about 1.3" down so far...looks like its winding down here shortly. 

[midwest buildit]

Not even an inch yet here. Sounded like some mixed precip while i was driving. But it was hard to tell.

[Madtown]

Looks like we're done here.pretty disappointed. Was hoping for mood flakes and besides 20min right when it started it was pixie

[midwest buildit]

If this is what was supposed to give us 1-3 today/this evening . Looking at radar its done. Then it did not even come close. Lol. Hopefully a better shot tomorrow.

[shakjen]

Pretty good glazing of ice down here. Still freezing mist coming down.

[gosaints]

3 inches down looks like best stuff north and also south west of here. Not much more tonight

[Snowshoe]

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

832 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

 

New Information added to update section

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 832 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

 

Although snow is ongoing across northeast Wisconsin, snowfall

totals are not coming in at the rates that were expected during

the afternoon shift. Radar reflectivity trends show a lack of

significant returns, with light to moderate snow instead of the

moderate to heavy snow that was expected earlier this afternoon.

The issue appears to be some low level dry air that is holding

down the development of large dendrites and high snowfall rates as

shown on the 00Z KGRB RAOB. Therefore this first round of snow is

expected to underperform compared to previous forecasts. With that

in mind ended up cutting snowfall totals an inch or two from this

first round, which puts snowfall totals at the low end or middle

of the forecast range instead of at the higher end. At this point

there is no change to the headlines expected, as there is a second

round expected on Saturday as well as significant blowing and

drifting snow.

[Tom]

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

832 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

 

New Information added to update section

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 832 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

 

Although snow is ongoing across northeast Wisconsin, snowfall

totals are not coming in at the rates that were expected during

the afternoon shift. Radar reflectivity trends show a lack of

significant returns, with light to moderate snow instead of the

moderate to heavy snow that was expected earlier this afternoon.

The issue appears to be some low level dry air that is holding

down the development of large dendrites and high snowfall rates as

shown on the 00Z KGRB RAOB. Therefore this first round of snow is

expected to underperform compared to previous forecasts. With that

in mind ended up cutting snowfall totals an inch or two from this

first round, which puts snowfall totals at the low end or middle

of the forecast range instead of at the higher end. At this point

there is no change to the headlines expected, as there is a second

round expected on Saturday as well as significant blowing and

drifting snow.

How much do you have so far?

[Snowshoe]

About 3+

[Money]

Milwaukee lowering totals also

 

Euro wins this round

[BrianJK]

Every hyped storm busts. Every small event over performs.

[jaster220]

Pixie dust hell

Pixie dust first 90 mins from 7 pm then flakes got larger wet and quite heavy. Eyeballing an inch or so since it ramped up. Hoping for 3-1-3 = 7" total by end.

 

 

Oh, and a bunch of settling and under melt had the depth more like 7-8" not the 11" I stated earlier. It's really dense though.

[Money]

Hrrr seems pretty bullish on the defo band showing up to 3 inches in spots and still snowing

[Tony]

This storm is a bust and what a waste of a week tracking it. Wave 2 tomorrow seems to be falling apart on the models as well. Back to drinking now.

[gosaints]

Best flakes of the day by far. Wont last long but beautiful. Hardest snow of the season

[Snowshoe]

What's better than Christmas lights covered in snow? Approaching 4". A much smaller and denser snow than i was expecting.

[Money]

What's better than Christmas lights covered in snow? Approaching 4". A much smaller and denser snow than i was expecting.

You might be good for 6 tonight or so

[Tom]

RPM says 3-4" additional tomorrow...we'll see

[GDR]

So when's the next snowstorm to track? I mean rain storm!

[indianajohn]

NWI maybe a half inch

[jaster220]

M2.0 so 2.6" on the day. More than 50% my season avg in 12 days! Quite the ride we're on over here in Pure Michigan!

[jaster220]

RPM says 3-4" additional tomorrow...we'll see

GRR map has 3-4 tonight for here. They're also bullish on a defo-band Sat. Hope we all can get in on it. I am excited for the blowing & drifting potential. May have to get out in the countryside to take full advantage!!

[jaster220]

NWI maybe a half inch[/quote

 

Ouch. You could do good off the lake tomorrow though.

[ToastedRavs]

Ahh...the dry air intrusion reared its ugly head. Always does a number on totals

[GDR]

Man is anyone getting crushed??

[westMJim]

I just took a snow fall measurement and here at my house the total at this time is 4” of new snow and this morning the total on the ground here is 11”.  Remember there is still compacting of the snow still going on and believe it or not the ground is still warm so there is still melting from the bottom as well.  At this time, it is just cloudy here and the temperature is now at 18°.  So the GRR NWS did a good job on this event.

[GDR]

[Tom]

LOT's thinking with the second wave later tonight...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=52017

 

 

 

For those in NW IN, LOT discussing the meso-low over LM which will enhance LES..

As very cold air mass spills eastward and eventually across
southern Lake Michigan later this evening, high-res guidance
suggests meso-low or meso vortex development with an associated
plume of intense lake effect snow. Lake induced mesovorticies tend
to cause variability in the location of the snow squalls limiting
residence time, though underneath these transient bands snowfall
rates can exceed 2" per hour. Synoptic flow should tend to push
any intense band(s) east of our CWA by Sunday morning, though
possible a quick 2-4" of snow could fall, possibly in a very short
period of time in NE Porter County overnight. Snowfall amounts
will probably stay below warning criteria, though conditions could
for a time turn very hazardous with near white conditions in
blowing and drifting snow. After coordination with IWX opted to
hold off on upgrading to a warning, but later shifts will need to
re-evaluate.

[Tom]

06z GFS...snowfall yet to come???

[Tom]

@IndianaJohn, you will prob get some real intense LES later tonight to make up for the lack of snow yesterday.

[Tom]

How is the snow falling in NE??  Looks pretty decent on radar as the defo band gets going.

[Madtown]

So bad it's funny. On to the next... until I see a negative tilt I'm done tracking theses pos.

[CentralNebWeather]

How is the snow falling in NE?? Looks pretty decent on radar as the defo band gets going.

Snow started falling about 5 am. Visibility has been as low as .8 of a mile. Temperature is 1 degree, wind chill -20 with wind gusts to 30 blowing the snow around. It is like snow you would see in the arctic. Hard to describe how cold it is until you step out for a moment. May hit -30 wind chill this evening. Local forecast calling for 1-3 inches, I am hoping for maybe 2 inches on the high end.

[Snowshoe]

Forecasted for 8 but probably end around 6. But it's a beautiful 6.

[gosaints]

4inches of threading the needle

[Tom]

Snow started falling about 5 am. Visibility has been as low as .8 of a mile. Temperature is 1 degree, wind chill -20 with wind gusts to 30 blowing the snow around. It is like snow you would see in the arctic. Hard to describe how cold it is until you step out for a moment. May hit -30 wind chill this evening. Local forecast calling for 1-3 inches, I am hoping for maybe 2 inches on the high end.

That's wild!  I could only imagine what it looks like over there with the wind, bitter temps and flying snow.  Excited to see some of that over here.  Arctic frontal snows have that excitement factor if your lucky enough to get under a good band.  I remember in 2013-14 there were many of them over here.  Quite the experience.  Enjoy the snow and glad your able to manage to get something out of this system rather than nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

It is good to get a little. Right now I would estimate 3/4 mile visibility in snow and the blowing of this extremely dry snow around. Looks like Kansas to Kansas City will do well. They have been missed for years down there so good for them. Warmer next week then let's see what Mother Nature can bring us thereafter.