11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

[Hawkeye]

I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

[Clinton]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 

That's kinda been happening alot lately your way.  I don't like that trend.

[Clinton]

Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

The snowflake contest may come to a end before the deadline is even up 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

I agree!

[Niko]

Not a very organized system once it arrives here in SMI, but, I'll take a little light snow w/ a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces for this time of the year. Looks like the main show will be Tuesday nite here w/ any mix going over to all snow. It will definitely put a lot in the holiday spirit.

Also, the arctic front by weeks end will put a real drop in temps.

[james1976]

Looking a bit better with the MPX afternoon AFD. Sounds like 2-5 inches by Tuesday night and NWS is saying significant travel impacts due to it being the first widespread snowfall. Looks like a couple rounds.

[Clinton]

My first WWA of the season for me and the rest of the KC group.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

KSZ025-057-102>105-MOZ002>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-
044-141700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.221115T0200Z-221115T1300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-
Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-
Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry,
King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Mound City, Oregon,
Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa,
Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale,
Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph,
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,
Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,
Kearney, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence,
Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore,
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.=

[Clinton]

0z Euro and NAM have 1-4 inch amounts for many on here.

[Clinton]

6z GFS with good LES and a good hit for parts of Oklahoma

[Tom]

This graphic is the epitome of a "Split Flow" combine with an active #STJ...makes me giddy seeing this advertised both here in AZ and back home on the wx graphics!  For all the LRC followers, you can't deny this is will likely be an Exhibit of the LRC.

PHX...

 

 

WGN...

 

[Tom]

Flagstaff, AZ officially reported 0.3" of snow yesterday but the downtown area had 1.2".  The trough rolled on through nad took a bit of a northerly track so it really didn't have that much moisture to work with.  

[Iceresistance]

Parts of SW Oklahoma is now under a Winter Storm Warning for up to 6 inches of snow!

[Niko]

A couple of inches of snow looking likely here for SMI (1-3) for now. Not too shabby.

Temps are currently in the mid 20s under crystal clear skies.

 

Look what happens afterwards:

A strong northwest flow shortwave/arctic intrusion will lead to an
excitement of the Lake effect late Thursday and Friday. Depending on
timing and strength of shortwave could be looking at an active
period as any snow accumulation should be impactful given cold
temperatures that could be in the teens and 20s.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro and NAM have 1-4 inch amounts for many on here.

Except the Nebraska snow hole.  Kind of amazing, but we've seen it so many times you get sort of numb to it.

[MIKEKC]

Darn it, I think KC gets 3 inches of snow worth the precipitation, temps aren't going to work out it appears. Latest 12Z HRRR never gets us below freezing and has several hours of rain before snow. Down to about a 1/2 inch or so of snow on this run..

 

[CentralNebWeather]

40 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm starting to feel your pain, and I haven't even been here that long. This pattern is just not good for bringing significant moisture into NE/S SD. Hopefully after the pattern resets there can be some slight adjustments to change that aspect of it. Otherwise it's going to be a very long, frustrating winter.

Unfortunately, we just had one of those.  One of the driest winters in history, 2021-2022.  Two in a row would be be devastating for the agricultural industry that is already struggling.  

[Clinton]

@Tom nice LES showing up for Chicago on the HRRR.

[james1976]

Snowing pretty hard up here! Eyeballing atleast an inch so far. Roads are a mess

[bud2380]

Snowy AM commute tomorrow for many.

 

[bud2380]

3k NAM shows it snowing well into Wednesday as well.  Should be a fun scene, even if snow totals end up light.  This is Kuchera, but given the long duration light nature of this snow, I would think this could be a little overdone.  

 

[james1976]

NWS just expanded the WWA across the TC metro! Now calling for 2-4"

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Tom nice LES showing up for Chicago on the HRRR.

Looks great but I don’t believe it bc it runs to cold and it’s way to early in the season for those closer to the warm lake.  Nice to see tho!

[bud2380]

GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN.

 

[bud2380]

FV3 - definitely a strong signal of a heavier band of snow setting up through central Iowa into south central MN up to the Twin Citites.

 

[bud2380]

15z RAP similar

 

[james1976]

Yeah the 2nd round is looking a bit better up here in the TC

Eyeballing at least 2" right now. Flakes are smaller.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm praying for some more oomph outta this thing when turns north. Will be interesting.

Right now I'm at a forecast of 0-1 inch.

[bud2380]

UK also very similar to other models painting that stripe of snow in an N/S line from central Iowa to the TCs.  Incredible model consistency for such a narrow snow band.  

 

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN.

 

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

[bud2380]

Euro not as robust, but still shows the same stronger band in the same area as the other models.

 

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

[jcwxguy]

Ended up with a surprise inch or two in Fremont this morning.  Roads were very slick 

[jcwxguy]

20 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Ended up with a surprise inch or two in Fremont this morning.  Roads were very slick 

About half my total from all of last winter lol

[Clinton]

Updated snowfall forecast from EAX.  A little bump in totals.

[bud2380]

DVN with an upgraded graphic and Winter Weather Advisories issued for a large portion of the state.  4-6" in Des Moines on this map, very impressive if that were to verify.

 

[james1976]

Awesome storm up here! Just did several measurements around the yard between 3.2-4" and there's been some compaction so I'd bet on 4". Fatties coming down. This has turned out much better than MPX was acting like yesterday. 

[tStacsh]

Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Here we go: From GRR

 

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     IDEAL SET-UP WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO SEE SOME   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS. DEEP   UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD COLD SWEEPING IN   FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE LK MI   WATER TEMP IS STILL NEAR 10C AT THE SRN BUOY WHICH WOULD CREATE   EXTREME INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WHEN AIR COLDER THAN -15C IS   ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

 

Yeah, those latest NAM maps looked impressive, even if reduced by 30% - Good Luck over there where the West is the best part of The Mitt!

 

Suddenly, DTX is much more upbeat??

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
301 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A rather wintry pattern is expected through the rest of the week
into the weekend with increasingly cold air and several periods of
accumulating snow expected.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT mentioned in their disco that heavier rates may overcome but we know how difficult that is unless you have a stout HP seeding bitter cold this early in the season.

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

[james1976]

Classic November shaping up! I love it.

MPX going with another 2-4" tomorrow. WWA down at the IA home for 2-5"

[OKwx2k4]

Sprinkled for around 3 mins and started dumping snow on me. Should be more than an inch, but will have to see how melting goes. I'm right on the line. 

Puking moderate chicken feathers right now!

[OKwx2k4]

4 pm snow! Love it!

[OKwx2k4]

Last one....

I'm thankful for my elevation.

I think that they'll need to revise my totals by time this is over.

[OKwx2k4]

Latest rapid, hi-res or HRRR....whatever you call it. Showing a good 2 inch snow.

I like it because it factors in elevation, which shows in a snowfall map.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Which Chiberia can get. Over here I get polar air very modified by the 2 upstream GL's. Explains how/why Motown's greatest storm was at the end of winter (technically MET Spring).

At any rate, glad to see things ticking UP as this draws closer (for all involved)

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

Quote

In fact, lake temperatures of +10
to +11C and 850mb temperatures of -6 to -7C as well as inversion
heights pushing 11,000-12,000 feet will generate as much as 250-350
J/kg of lake-induced CAPE from late Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning, leading to concern that lake enhancement to snow
may "overachieve" in spite of marginal surface temperatures.
Interestingly, the 12Z HREF shows splotchy 20-30% probabilities of
snow rates >1"/hr between 2-3 PM Tuesday and 3-4 AM Wednesday across
the northern Chicago suburbs. Perhaps more concerning is the 12Z
HREF 24-hour local probability-matched mean QPF of 0.75-1.00" across
Lake, Cook, and northeastern DuPage counties. When applying a
standard 10:1 snow ratio, it`s easy to see how snow totals may get
out of hand. However, without a persistent band hitting the same
area for hours and hours, it may be tough to truly realize the
snowfall amounts advertised by individual high resolution CAMs that
inform the HREF. For now, we will cautiously advertise an additional
2-3 inches of snow on top of what falls in the morning keeping in
mind our forecast may be way too low.

 

[Tom]

LOT's graphic...

 

[OKwx2k4]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

 

In other words...."we're nowcasting this one folks!" Lol. 

Pretty awesome dynamics off the lake there, I'd say!

[OKwx2k4]

Last one before dark. Good moderate band moving in.

 

[Clinton]

Precipitation is about to start here most likely as rain briefly before changing over.  Looks like all of us in the KC area should see 1-3 inches.  I would not be shocked if this overperformed and some do better than that.