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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton

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  • Clinton changed the title to 11/14 - 11/18 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow
7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z HRRR coming into range and is taking on the look of the Euro.  @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude @KCSmokey @MIKEKC first inch of snow for KC looking likely.

snku_acc.us_c.png

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

I would like to see temps colder on the future data runs, we would lose some accumulation due to temps right around 32-33. High temps Monday could reach 40-45, we'll see if they can bust like yesterday when my forecast high of 35 turned into 28 for a high.

It would stick this morning, 15 degrees and a heavy frost here in KC, even frosted the bridges this morning with a layer of white. Beautiful winter look this morning. 

Let's go first snow of the season!!! Well, second one as I had a dusting last weekend after the 3 inches of rain. Active pattern the last 3 weeks...

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Detailed write up by EAX explaining how sensitive and uncertain temps still are as well as precipitation rates.

Monday Night Through Tuesday:

H5 heights sharply fall from the afternoon into the eveing hours on
Monday as the trough begins to lift out of Texas and Oklahoma, and
acquires a slight negative tilt. This should continue to align dCVA
and WAA with the surface cyclone, allowing further deepening. The
center of the surface cyclone is still focused directly along the
Gulf coast, but convergence will extend as far northward as southern
Nebraska and Iowa, along with an enhanced moisture axis from the
preceding southerly flow ahead of this system. Q-vector and mass
convergence continue to increase after 18z Monday, and this is where
the precipitation will come into play. Initially, stratiform rain
will be the dominant precipitation type as temperatures at the
surface range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, and maybe even upper
40s in far southern Missouri. The lapse rates are not be robust, and
there is very little in the way of instability. Therefore, will not
expect any convective structure to the rain. Once the H5 trough axis
lifts northeastward, strong CAA sweeps across the Plains into the
region. With a saturated column, including the DGZ, expect a few
hours of rain/snow mix transition that will move roughly from west
to east. This is likely going to be noted across most of the
forecast area, but some areas will see more rain and or snow than
other areas. Amounts will be discussed in detail in just a little
bit. With dewpoints likely around 30-32 degrees, expecting wetbulb
temperatures near the surface to be around 31-33. These may go lower
depending on how strong dynamic cooling becomes with precipitation
drag. Eventually, the actual air temperatures should drop to around
30-32F across most of the forecast area, pretty close to the wetbulb
temperatures. Therefore, a transition to all snow is expected.
Again, most of the forecast area will likely see some kind of snow
during this event. Now, for a discussion on what will control snow
accumulations. In discussions over the last few nights, it was
mentioned that the DGZ in model soundings, particularly from the
deterministic GFS and NAM have demonstrated a moderately strong
depth. The GFS was a little bit deeper, around 5kft. Ice
introduction will not be an issue. However, lift through the DGZ
while temperatures below it are cold enough to support snow is still
in question. Currently, GFS and NAM soundings have their deepest
DGZs prior to 06z, and negative omega values through them (strong
lift). However, max air temperatures below the DGZ are still as high
as +2C to +3C, and are above 0C at the surface. Despite this lift,
it may be too warm to sustain frozen hydrometeors to allow for
accumulating snowfall prior to 06z. The wild card will be where the
wetbulb temperatures sit at. If they end just a degree or two warmer
than what is depicted in current model soundings, most of the QPF
will go into liquid rain in this period prior to 06z, eating into
snowfall amounts. Another factor that is working against having
sufficient snowfall rates for greater accumulations, is that there
is currently no strong signal for frontogenesis, and insentropic
cross section analysis from the GFS and NAM are showing moderately
strong layers of static stability. Given the strength of mid-level
vorticity with this system, it is somewhat surprising not to see a
stronger signal for static instability in the cross-sections, but
part of this may be because the surface cyclone is much further
south, keeping most of the kinematic forcing across our forecast
area above 850mb and away from the stronger thermal boundaries. With
the lack of these snowfall rates drivers and their timing, current
snowfall forecast has been trended toward the lower end of guidance.
A quick note on snow ratios, with the increasing moisture throughout
the column and the lack of these other enhancing factors, snow
ratios are expected to be around 8:1 to 9:1 for most of the forecast
area. Expect this to be a heavier, wetter snow once it eventually
transitions to all snow.

While both deterministic and ensemble mean solutions continue to be
consistent on widespread rain and rain/snow mix into Tuesday Night,
there is still disagreement on the placement of localized maxima in
QPF, and thus localized maxima in snowfall accumulations. The ECMWF
suite is currently the outlier with 00z guidance, as this places
heaviest snowfall totals across Northern Missouri and into far
southern Iowa. This solution also punches a dry slot earlier from
eastern Kansas into Central Missouri (across the KC metro as well),
slashing the QPF to just a few hundredths and just a dusting of
snow. Given the amount of moisture transport expected and mid-level
kinematic forcing for central and southern portions of the forecast
area, ECMWF and its respective ensemble solutions do not appear to
be the most representative at this time. The deterministic 00z NAM
also attempts to punch drier air in eastern Kansas through Central
Missouri, though not nearly as drastic as the ECMWF. Along with the
GFS and GEFS mean, the NAM 00z NAM was producing at least an inch
along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor. The GFS and GEFS 00z
runs brought this a bit further north to areas just south of
Interstate 70. As this discussion is being typed, the 06z NAM output
is becoming available, and a quick glance is showing a drastic
increase in QPF and snowfall amounts, with 2-3 inches for areas
south of Interstate 70 and another band of 2-3 inches in northern
Missouri. For right now, will not be trending the forecast in that
direction. Will stick with what the 00z GFS/GEFS/NAM was depicting,
with 1-2 inches in southern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area, and about 0.5 to 1.0 inches elsewhere. The 12z CAM
guidance today will fully cover this event. If this starts to show
signals for things like stronger frontogenesis, better lift through
the DGZ while temperatures are cold enough, or CSI release, then
could start to explore enhanced snowfall rates and greater
accumulations. But for right now, the guidance and data available
still support the lower end totals as a better suited forecast.
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The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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52 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. 

Yeah, in terms of totals down here, looking more like a shotgun pattern. Lol. 

I may get an inch or be in the hole that keeps showing up.

This weather pattern is how surprises happen. Hence the write-up Clinton posted. I love it. 

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Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday." 

That's kinda been happening alot lately your way.  I don't like that trend.

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Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

Tab2FileL.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Models not looking to bad, I'll be excited to see some flakes fly and maybe a little on the ground during this long lasting cold spell.  The snow will fall at the perfect time to stick with the marginal temps.  EAX leaning in the direction of the GFS for accumulations.

Tab2FileL.png

The snowflake contest may come to a end before the deadline is even up 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not real excited about this.  It will be a long-duration, on and off, light snow, with a temp rising into the 30s Tuesday.  It will likely have trouble sticking, especially on pavement.  It's only mid November and it will be nice just to see it snow and stick a bit.  That's good enough.  I'm happy to save real snow for winter.

I agree!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not a very organized system once it arrives here in SMI, but, I'll take a little light snow w/ a coating to an inch on grassy surfaces for this time of the year. Looks like the main show will be Tuesday nite here w/ any mix going over to all snow. It will definitely put a lot in the holiday spirit.

Also, the arctic front by weeks end will put a real drop in temps.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My first WWA of the season for me and the rest of the KC group.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

KSZ025-057-102>105-MOZ002>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-
044-141700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.221115T0200Z-221115T1300Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-
Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-
Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry,
King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Mound City, Oregon,
Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa,
Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale,
Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph,
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,
Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,
Kearney, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence,
Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore,
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg
251 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.=

Map of Forecast Area

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This graphic is the epitome of a "Split Flow" combine with an active #STJ...makes me giddy seeing this advertised both here in AZ and back home on the wx graphics!  For all the LRC followers, you can't deny this is will likely be an Exhibit of the LRC.

PHX...

1.png

 

 

WGN...

1.webp

 

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A couple of inches of snow looking likely here for SMI (1-3) for now. Not too shabby.

Temps are currently in the mid 20s under crystal clear skies.

 

Look what happens afterwards:

A strong northwest flow shortwave/arctic intrusion will lead to an
excitement of the Lake effect late Thursday and Friday. Depending on
timing and strength of shortwave could be looking at an active
period as any snow accumulation should be impactful given cold
temperatures that could be in the teens and 20s.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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40 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm starting to feel your pain, and I haven't even been here that long. This pattern is just not good for bringing significant moisture into NE/S SD. Hopefully after the pattern resets there can be some slight adjustments to change that aspect of it. Otherwise it's going to be a very long, frustrating winter.

Unfortunately, we just had one of those.  One of the driest winters in history, 2021-2022.  Two in a row would be be devastating for the agricultural industry that is already struggling.  

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

GFS with some impressive totals in southern MN.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Brutal early season UHI/Lake Shadowing for both Chicago (nobody there anyways so NBD) and Detroit Metro where I fight both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair effects. As said about a month ago - COME ON COLD! Seriously tho, this region scores best on late winter events for that very reason so it's not unusual, just annoying as h*ll

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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