11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

[Clinton]

Looks like an early start to Winter for @Iceresistance and @OKwx2k4 as an active southern stream interacts with some cold air.  As @Tomhas been saying the STJ is going to play this year and Oklahoma (one of this years LRC hotspots) looks to land an early storm.  Further north KC and mby look to be on the northern edge of this system, however a bit of an inverted trough will move through the middle of the country linking this storm to a weaker system coming out of the northern plains at about the same time.  If only they could phase maybe next time.  This feature could provide enough lift for much of Kan, MO, and Iowa to see some flakes fly and possibly an inch or 2 of snow.

While the models have been inconsistent the 0z GFS has came back to it's original idea.

 

0z GEFS

18z EPS is a little stronger with the northern energy

[Iceresistance]

I know! I've been watching this for a while now! Please don't forget to include @Black Hole!

[Clinton]

This is a bit of a change this mornings GFS phases the 2 pieces of energy over the lakes, makes for an even bigger storm.

GEFS

[Clinton]

0z Euro is similar

6z EPS

[Hawkeye]

This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa.

Gets better with every run.  For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps.

 

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, the GDPS (Canadian) continues to show no phasing at all.  It has a dominant northern stream and a weak southern system that quickly shoots east, well to the south of the lakes.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Gets better with every run.  For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps.

 

Yay! I'm less shafted. Hoping this phased solution is a real trend ofc. Need CMC onboard tho..

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to be onboard, although it has little snow down south in Oklahoma.

[bud2380]

18z GFS showing a prolonged period of relatively light snow.  Wow, winter kicking into full gear in a hurry.  Will be fun to watch the models unfold over the weekend.

 

[Clinton]

18z GFS looks great for Oklahoma also

[Niko]

NOAA:

High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by
Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into
Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over
the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf
moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday
afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and
snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center
tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for
SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming
forecast cycles.

 

[Iceresistance]

It's SNOWING OUTSIDE! 

[james1976]

Wow like @bud2380said we are heading into winter quickly. Seems much quicker than recent years and has more of that classic feel. This next week is looking pretty good up here at the MN home! MPX talking possibly 3-6" total from both rounds and then an Arctic front late week that may keep highs only in the teens!

The first round of snow will lift northeast with the short wave by
late Monday, then attention will turn to another wave across the
southern Plains with quite a bit more moisture to work with. The
cyclonic flow will be maintained across the north central states and
will work to phase with the southern wave Monday night into
Wednesday as it tracks northeast along or just north of the Ohio
Valley. An inverted trough extending from system could bring
moisture rather far northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Forecast soundings again depict a saturated
column with weak lift extending throughout the entire layer for a
prolonged period of time. This would suggest widespread light snow,
little or no banding, and uniform snowfall totals. NBM has issues
with appropriately high PoPs in higher confidence/low QPF events, so
it`ll be a task to increase them manually with each forecast
issuance. Light winds and temperatures in the 20s could bring higher
than normal snow ratios, but the lack of accumulation-efficient
dendrites could prove detrimental for that potential. It should be
noted ground temperatures will likely not be much of a factor due to
continuous subfreezing air temperatures in the preceding 4 days. Soil
temps at a 2 inch depth this afternoon are already near freezing.
EPS and GEFS mean QPF for both events total between 1/4 and 1/2 inch,
meaning we could end up with 3 to 6 inches over the 2 to 3 day
period.

An arctic front will push through late week, reinforcing the cold
air in place. Highs could remain in the teens next Friday with lows
in the single digits, especially if we can develop a snow pack.

[Andie]

North Texas will see its first low in the 30’s tomorrow night. 
They’re calling for a low of 33.  Some areas will hit freezing.  Here we go. First freeze on the 12th? 

[OKwx2k4]

This is pretty wild folks! Welcome to winter! 

As someone above said, it will be interesting to watch the models the next 48 hrs.

It's been something like two decades since something like this down here....

Long time!!

[Iceresistance]

OKC officially got .4 inches, that is HUGE for something that was expected to be a nonevent!

 

I may have eeked out .1 inch

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by
Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into
Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over
the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf
moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday
afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and
snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center
tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for
SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming
forecast cycles.

 

Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. 

On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. 

Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. 

Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell.  

[Clinton]

0z GFS a little drier for the northern members, Oklahoma still does well.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Clinton said:

0z GFS a little drier for the northern members, Oklahoma still does well.

Curses! It's just north of me for Oklahoma!

[bud2380]

Models were unkind overnight. Euro dried up significantly. 

[Tom]

0z EPS...def shrunk the snow shield...

[Clinton]

GFS not backing down for Oklahoma, you guys sure have the hot hand right now.

[CentralNebWeather]

51 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS not backing down for Oklahoma, you guys sure have the hot hand right now.

This throws a band back over me in Central Nebraska. Would be a nice surprise. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This throws a band back over me in Central Nebraska. Would be a nice surprise. 

Yes and there is an inverted trough extending north from the southern energy that will move across your area and points east.  Sometimes these types of storms can overperform.  I think there is still a good chance a lot of us could see some accumulations.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Returns look good over Central Indiana.

[Clinton]

6z Euro control looking a little more phased, will be close call for KC to see there first inch of snow.

The mean looks good for folks up north

Edited November 12, 2022 by Clinton

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...def shrunk the snow shield...

I think it's just 5F degrees too warm - still. Coming off record heat's not helpful either.

[james1976]

MPX really backed off on accumulations and now saying mainly just scattered snowshowers.

[Niko]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. 

On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. 

Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. 

Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell.  

Blitz of 2014 was awesome. That snow really came down hard.

Also, watch this wave inundate us next week w/ more than 6" on the models less than a day to go and tbh, I luv last sec upticks on models when it comes to snow accumulations.

[Hawkeye]

Poorly-aligned energy and resultant lack of phasing has led most models to back off of snow for Iowa.  The Euro is still trying to hold on.

[chescowxman]

Latest 12z NAM brings snow into the NE toward the end of it's run at 0z Wed

 

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro a little better this run for E. Iowa and the Lakes bringing a prolonged period of light snow.

Control:

Mean:

[james1976]

MPX afternoon disco sounds a bit more confident. Calling for 1-2" with each round (2 rounds) and that the GFS is too dry. Sounds like they are siding more with the Euro. Arctic blast Thursday with showshowers and only teens for highs Friday. Hello winter!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

MPX afternoon disco sounds a bit more confident. Calling for 1-2" with each round (2 rounds) and that the GFS is too dry. Sounds like they are siding more with the Euro. Arctic blast Thursday with showshowers and only teens for highs Friday. Hello winter!

EAX also sounds optimistic about some snow falling.  It looks like I have a decent chance of seeing an inch maybe 2 on the grass.  I'll gladly take it I'm ready for some wintery precip to go along with this cold weather, November has been great.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has 2-3 inches for my location

[Clinton]

18z Euro sends a 1-2 inch band right into KC.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro sends a 1-2 inch band right into KC.

I get 1-3 inches from the 18z Euro

[Clinton]

28 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I get 1-3 inches from the 18z Euro

The KC office has a narrow 1-2 inch band right through mby.

[Tom]

0z Euro came back with a better run for MN/E IA...might want to extend the dates on this thread to include the LES potential???  The Euro has good wind profiles over the western shores of our MI posters.  Light it up!

[Tom]

0z GEFS...bullseye SW MI... @westMJim and maybe @Stacshwill come around and post some + and interesting feedback when its snowing in their backyard in whiteout conditions!  Hope it verifies.

 

 

[westMJim]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

interesting feedback when its snowing in their backyard

Of course I will post the snow fall amounts in MBY. There is a trace of snow on the ground here this AM.

[Clinton]

6z models still have some differences but are beginning to head towards an agreement.  First accumulations for many on here!

[Clinton]

12z HRRR coming into range and is taking on the look of the Euro.  @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude @KCSmokey @MIKEKC first inch of snow for KC looking likely.

[MIKEKC]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z HRRR coming into range and is taking on the look of the Euro.  @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude @KCSmokey @MIKEKC first inch of snow for KC looking likely.

I would like to see temps colder on the future data runs, we would lose some accumulation due to temps right around 32-33. High temps Monday could reach 40-45, we'll see if they can bust like yesterday when my forecast high of 35 turned into 28 for a high.

It would stick this morning, 15 degrees and a heavy frost here in KC, even frosted the bridges this morning with a layer of white. Beautiful winter look this morning. 

Let's go first snow of the season!!! Well, second one as I had a dusting last weekend after the 3 inches of rain. Active pattern the last 3 weeks...

[Clinton]

Detailed write up by EAX explaining how sensitive and uncertain temps still are as well as precipitation rates.

Monday Night Through Tuesday:

H5 heights sharply fall from the afternoon into the eveing hours on
Monday as the trough begins to lift out of Texas and Oklahoma, and
acquires a slight negative tilt. This should continue to align dCVA
and WAA with the surface cyclone, allowing further deepening. The
center of the surface cyclone is still focused directly along the
Gulf coast, but convergence will extend as far northward as southern
Nebraska and Iowa, along with an enhanced moisture axis from the
preceding southerly flow ahead of this system. Q-vector and mass
convergence continue to increase after 18z Monday, and this is where
the precipitation will come into play. Initially, stratiform rain
will be the dominant precipitation type as temperatures at the
surface range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, and maybe even upper
40s in far southern Missouri. The lapse rates are not be robust, and
there is very little in the way of instability. Therefore, will not
expect any convective structure to the rain. Once the H5 trough axis
lifts northeastward, strong CAA sweeps across the Plains into the
region. With a saturated column, including the DGZ, expect a few
hours of rain/snow mix transition that will move roughly from west
to east. This is likely going to be noted across most of the
forecast area, but some areas will see more rain and or snow than
other areas. Amounts will be discussed in detail in just a little
bit. With dewpoints likely around 30-32 degrees, expecting wetbulb
temperatures near the surface to be around 31-33. These may go lower
depending on how strong dynamic cooling becomes with precipitation
drag. Eventually, the actual air temperatures should drop to around
30-32F across most of the forecast area, pretty close to the wetbulb
temperatures. Therefore, a transition to all snow is expected.
Again, most of the forecast area will likely see some kind of snow
during this event. Now, for a discussion on what will control snow
accumulations. In discussions over the last few nights, it was
mentioned that the DGZ in model soundings, particularly from the
deterministic GFS and NAM have demonstrated a moderately strong
depth. The GFS was a little bit deeper, around 5kft. Ice
introduction will not be an issue. However, lift through the DGZ
while temperatures below it are cold enough to support snow is still
in question. Currently, GFS and NAM soundings have their deepest
DGZs prior to 06z, and negative omega values through them (strong
lift). However, max air temperatures below the DGZ are still as high
as +2C to +3C, and are above 0C at the surface. Despite this lift,
it may be too warm to sustain frozen hydrometeors to allow for
accumulating snowfall prior to 06z. The wild card will be where the
wetbulb temperatures sit at. If they end just a degree or two warmer
than what is depicted in current model soundings, most of the QPF
will go into liquid rain in this period prior to 06z, eating into
snowfall amounts. Another factor that is working against having
sufficient snowfall rates for greater accumulations, is that there
is currently no strong signal for frontogenesis, and insentropic
cross section analysis from the GFS and NAM are showing moderately
strong layers of static stability. Given the strength of mid-level
vorticity with this system, it is somewhat surprising not to see a
stronger signal for static instability in the cross-sections, but
part of this may be because the surface cyclone is much further
south, keeping most of the kinematic forcing across our forecast
area above 850mb and away from the stronger thermal boundaries. With
the lack of these snowfall rates drivers and their timing, current
snowfall forecast has been trended toward the lower end of guidance.
A quick note on snow ratios, with the increasing moisture throughout
the column and the lack of these other enhancing factors, snow
ratios are expected to be around 8:1 to 9:1 for most of the forecast
area. Expect this to be a heavier, wetter snow once it eventually
transitions to all snow.

While both deterministic and ensemble mean solutions continue to be
consistent on widespread rain and rain/snow mix into Tuesday Night,
there is still disagreement on the placement of localized maxima in
QPF, and thus localized maxima in snowfall accumulations. The ECMWF
suite is currently the outlier with 00z guidance, as this places
heaviest snowfall totals across Northern Missouri and into far
southern Iowa. This solution also punches a dry slot earlier from
eastern Kansas into Central Missouri (across the KC metro as well),
slashing the QPF to just a few hundredths and just a dusting of
snow. Given the amount of moisture transport expected and mid-level
kinematic forcing for central and southern portions of the forecast
area, ECMWF and its respective ensemble solutions do not appear to
be the most representative at this time. The deterministic 00z NAM
also attempts to punch drier air in eastern Kansas through Central
Missouri, though not nearly as drastic as the ECMWF. Along with the
GFS and GEFS mean, the NAM 00z NAM was producing at least an inch
along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor. The GFS and GEFS 00z
runs brought this a bit further north to areas just south of
Interstate 70. As this discussion is being typed, the 06z NAM output
is becoming available, and a quick glance is showing a drastic
increase in QPF and snowfall amounts, with 2-3 inches for areas
south of Interstate 70 and another band of 2-3 inches in northern
Missouri. For right now, will not be trending the forecast in that
direction. Will stick with what the 00z GFS/GEFS/NAM was depicting,
with 1-2 inches in southern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area, and about 0.5 to 1.0 inches elsewhere. The 12z CAM
guidance today will fully cover this event. If this starts to show
signals for things like stronger frontogenesis, better lift through
the DGZ while temperatures are cold enough, or CSI release, then
could start to explore enhanced snowfall rates and greater
accumulations. But for right now, the guidance and data available
still support the lower end totals as a better suited forecast.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. 

[james1976]

MPX only calling for a couple inches throughout the week. Might be able to tack on a little more with the late week arctic blast. Winter is here regardless!

[OKwx2k4]

52 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The GEFS and GFS are open to the idea of the main bullseye of 3-5 inches of snow in NW Oklahoma north of I-40 and west of I-35, but a secondary bullseye with 2-4 inches of snow in my general location east of I-35 and south of I-40. 

Yeah, in terms of totals down here, looking more like a shotgun pattern. Lol. 

I may get an inch or be in the hole that keeps showing up.

This weather pattern is how surprises happen. Hence the write-up Clinton posted. I love it. 

[jaster220]

Not liking this current trend at all. 

"Shortwave ejecting northeast from OK Monday night takes on a negative tilt before eventually opening up and shearing out over the GrtLks Rgn on Tuesday."