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11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow


Clinton

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Looks like an early start to Winter for @Iceresistance and @OKwx2k4 as an active southern stream interacts with some cold air.  As @Tomhas been saying the STJ is going to play this year and Oklahoma (one of this years LRC hotspots) looks to land an early storm.  Further north KC and mby look to be on the northern edge of this system, however a bit of an inverted trough will move through the middle of the country linking this storm to a weaker system coming out of the northern plains at about the same time.  If only they could phase maybe next time.  This feature could provide enough lift for much of Kan, MO, and Iowa to see some flakes fly and possibly an inch or 2 of snow.

While the models have been inconsistent the 0z GFS has came back to it's original idea.

 

1668675600-Vlce3jbV06c.png

0z GEFS

1668686400-RNzPo1C4icc.png

18z EPS is a little stronger with the northern energy

1668621600-hrkUvO9A6II.png

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  • Clinton changed the title to 11/14 - 11/16 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's ICON and GFS are both more phased and nw with the system and bring decent snow across Iowa.

Gets better with every run.  For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps.

 1668610800-PrcNHTMZq3w.png

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Meanwhile, the GDPS (Canadian) continues to show no phasing at all.  It has a dominant northern stream and a weak southern system that quickly shoots east, well to the south of the lakes.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Gets better with every run.  For Oklahoma and KC peeps, the snow hitting at sunset and continuing through the overnight will help with some accumulation given the marginal temps.

 1668610800-PrcNHTMZq3w.png

Yay! I'm less shafted. Hoping this phased solution is a real trend ofc. Need CMC onboard tho..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA:

High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by
Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into
Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over
the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf
moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday
afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and
snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center
tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for
SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming
forecast cycles.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Wow like @bud2380said we are heading into winter quickly. Seems much quicker than recent years and has more of that classic feel. This next week is looking pretty good up here at the MN home! MPX talking possibly 3-6" total from both rounds and then an Arctic front late week that may keep highs only in the teens!

The first round of snow will lift northeast with the short wave by
late Monday, then attention will turn to another wave across the
southern Plains with quite a bit more moisture to work with. The
cyclonic flow will be maintained across the north central states and
will work to phase with the southern wave Monday night into
Wednesday as it tracks northeast along or just north of the Ohio
Valley. An inverted trough extending from system could bring
moisture rather far northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Forecast soundings again depict a saturated
column with weak lift extending throughout the entire layer for a
prolonged period of time. This would suggest widespread light snow,
little or no banding, and uniform snowfall totals. NBM has issues
with appropriately high PoPs in higher confidence/low QPF events, so
it`ll be a task to increase them manually with each forecast
issuance. Light winds and temperatures in the 20s could bring higher
than normal snow ratios, but the lack of accumulation-efficient
dendrites could prove detrimental for that potential. It should be
noted ground temperatures will likely not be much of a factor due to
continuous subfreezing air temperatures in the preceding 4 days. Soil
temps at a 2 inch depth this afternoon are already near freezing.
EPS and GEFS mean QPF for both events total between 1/4 and 1/2 inch,
meaning we could end up with 3 to 6 inches over the 2 to 3 day
period.

An arctic front will push through late week, reinforcing the cold
air in place. Highs could remain in the teens next Friday with lows
in the single digits, especially if we can develop a snow pack.
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North Texas will see its first low in the 30’s tomorrow night. 
They’re calling for a low of 33.  Some areas will hit freezing.  Here we go. First freeze on the 12th? 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

High pressure is on schedule to build across the Great Lakes by
Monday to start the week with dry weather. The high holds into
Tuesday as the next low pressure system gathers organization over
the Plains and Midwest. This large and intense system sweeps Gulf
moisture northward which could reach Lower Mi as early as Tuesday
afternoon in the form of a rain/snow mix. A heavier mix of rain and
snow changing to all snow becomes possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday as extended range models show the surface low center
tracking nearby across NW Ohio, a track that makes the forecast for
SE MI very sensitive to the small adjustments likely in upcoming
forecast cycles.

 

Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. 

On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. 

Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. 

Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This throws a band back over me in Central Nebraska. Would be a nice surprise. 

Yes and there is an inverted trough extending north from the southern energy that will move across your area and points east.  Sometimes these types of storms can overperform.  I think there is still a good chance a lot of us could see some accumulations.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...def shrunk the snow shield...

image.png

I think it's just 5F degrees too warm - still. Coming off record heat's not helpful either.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Here we go again with the "very sensitive to track" concerns. This area (Actual Wayne County not Oakland or Macomb) really struggles even in mid-winter with traditional S. Stream systems. The track is almost always too close. The only two CAT-5 storms for SMI both screwed-over this region in 67 and 78. You could add several more like Mar 73, Apr 75, Jan 79, GHD-1, and PV bliz of 2014. Oh yeah, plus NYE 07 and Dec 00. 

On the flipside, some of the better storm hits were in Dec '74, Jan '82, Jan '99, Jan '05 and ofc GHD-2. 

Almost 2:1 in favor of bad outcomes with stronger S. Stream systems unfortunately. 

Perhaps we will get cold enough this winter to buck those odds. Time will tell.  

Blitz of 2014 was awesome. That snow really came down hard.

Also, watch this wave inundate us next week w/ more than 6" on the models less than a day to go and tbh, I luv last sec upticks on models when it comes to snow accumulations.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Poorly-aligned energy and resultant lack of phasing has led most models to back off of snow for Iowa.  The Euro is still trying to hold on.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Latest 12z NAM brings snow into the NE toward the end of it's run at 0z Wed

image.thumb.png.b6fe4a93ca6d6f33bc5aebb9bac9cdb3.png

 

 

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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

MPX afternoon disco sounds a bit more confident. Calling for 1-2" with each round (2 rounds) and that the GFS is too dry. Sounds like they are siding more with the Euro. Arctic blast Thursday with showshowers and only teens for highs Friday. Hello winter!

EAX also sounds optimistic about some snow falling.  It looks like I have a decent chance of seeing an inch maybe 2 on the grass.  I'll gladly take it I'm ready for some wintery precip to go along with this cold weather, November has been great.

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