11/14 - 11/20 | Possible Southern Plains to Great Lakes Accumulating Snow

[Tom]

LOT's graphic...

 

[OKwx2k4]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

 

In other words...."we're nowcasting this one folks!" Lol. 

Pretty awesome dynamics off the lake there, I'd say!

[OKwx2k4]

Last one before dark. Good moderate band moving in.

 

[Clinton]

Precipitation is about to start here most likely as rain briefly before changing over.  Looks like all of us in the KC area should see 1-3 inches.  I would not be shocked if this overperformed and some do better than that.

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

LOT suggesting they may Bust to Low with snowfall totals near the Lake.  Very interesting set up and I'm very curious to see how this evolves.  I'd love to see this kind of system repeat a few times this winter.

 

It's awesome when the offices are playing catch-up with the dynamics in play. We're all too familiar with it doing the opposite too often. I mentioned how old school wx "rules of thumb" were screaming early winter incoming, and it's about to happen for most if not all of us. In all the years here in this forum, I may have seen @OKwx2k4 post 2 or at the most 3 images of snow at his place. Here we are in literally the first week/days of this season and he's already getting hit! 

When nature aligns itself, it will happen. Nov 22, 2015, was the epitome of such happenings. I'm still just expecting white RN here as DTX is hyped mostly for @Niko's area and north. We'll see if some of that ORD magic can rub off over here in DTWville?

[Bryan1117]

11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Except the Nebraska snow hole.  Kind of amazing, but we've seen it so many times you get sort of numb to it.

I have never seen such a consistently miserable pattern for precipitation in our area... and worse yet, it shows no sign of changing at all. 

[Niko]

It will get very interesting here after this system passes on through S MI. More accumulating snows a good possibility and it could be quite snowy from Thursday right into early Saturday. Also, there is a chance that my area w/ this Tuesday nite/ Wed system might need to get an WWA, probably w/ the 4am package or so. A (2-3inch is a real good possibility) and then the fun starts Thursday into Saturday w/ that Lake Effect developing. Looks like a real snowy week shaping up here. Finally, that arctic air will still be around until early next week. Very cold temps over the weekend w/ single digits nighttime temps not outta the question w/ all of that snowcover around. Great start so far to November and mid November is the best time to get active (week or so b4 Thanksgiving) , anything earlier than that is too early in my book.

NOAA:

Expect an increase in snow shower activity heading into the Thursday
evening period with lake effect snow bands from Lake Michigan then
organizing and spreading into parts of Southeast Lower Michigan on
through Friday and to some degree into Saturday as well. The west to
southwest trajectory expected suggests that banding will be most
concentrated in the I-696 to M-59 corridors initially late Thursday
with activity becoming more focused M-59 to I-69 during the course
of Thursday night into Friday and then further north into the
Saginaw Valley into Saturday. Given the degree of cold air that
sweeps into the area, some of this snow band activity could be
rather intense at times.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

TAFs update from GRR looking legit:

 IFR and LIFR conditions are likely during the bulk of
the afternoon and early evening hours as ceilings try to trend
towards 1,000 feet and visibilities trend towards 1 mile. We may
need to trend TAFs more pessimistic in later issuance`s, in terms
of ceilings below 1,000 feet and vsbys below 1 mile.

[Clinton]

Light snow has started here, looks like a band of moderate to even heavy snow with lift through my area in the next hour.

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Niko said:

It will get very interesting here after this system passes on through S MI. More accumulating snows a good possibility and it could be quite snowy from Thursday right into early Saturday. Also, there is a chance that my area w/ this Tuesday nite/ Wed system might need to get an WWA, probably w/ the 4am package or so. A (2-3inch is a real good possibility) and then the fun starts Thursday into Saturday w/ that Lake Effect developing. Looks like a real snowy week shaping up here. Finally, that arctic air will still around until early next week. Very cold temps over the weekend w/ single digits nighttime temps not outta the question w/ all of that snowcover around. Great start so far to November and mid November is the best time to get active (week or so b4 Thanksgiving) , anything earlier than that is too early in my book.

NOAA:

Expect an increase in snow shower activity heading into the Thursday
evening period with lake effect snow bands from Lake Michigan then
organizing and spreading into parts of Southeast Lower Michigan on
through Friday and to some degree into Saturday as well. The west to
southwest trajectory expected suggests that banding will be most
concentrated in the I-696 to M-59 corridors initially late Thursday
with activity becoming more focused M-59 to I-69 during the course
of Thursday night into Friday and then further north into the
Saginaw Valley into Saturday. Given the degree of cold air that
sweeps into the area, some of this snow band activity could be
rather intense at times.

 

 

 

Looks like all this early action will again be "just north" of me (like Saturday's was "just south" lol). So far, this is just a continuation of last winter for mby. Maybe it turns a corner as we get deeper into the cold. Need an I-94 winter like 13-14, or at least a W to E slider like Jan 22, 2005

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Light snow has started here, looks like a band of moderate to even heavy snow with lift through my area in the next hour.

Snow has started here as well with the temp of 35. Hopefully the temps will drop a couple degrees and the snow picks up so we can get some accumulations

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like all this early action will again be "just north" of me (like Saturday's was "just south" lol). So far, this is just a continuation of last winter for mby. Maybe it turns a corner as we get deeper into the cold. Need an I-94 winter like 13-14, or at least a W to E slider like Jan 22, 2005

The cold air could win out for your area and you get to see more snows. Wait till tomorrow and you could be seeing changes in your forecast. But yes, its funny how you get sandwiched in between systems.

[Clinton]

19 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Snow has started here as well with the temp of 35. Hopefully the temps will drop a couple degrees and the snow picks up so we can get some accumulations

Temps have been slow to drop here also, getting moderate snow with a temp of 36.

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Niko said:

The cold air could win out for your area and you get to see more snows. Wait till tomorrow and you could be seeing changes in your forecast. But yes, its funny how you get sandwiched in between systems.

Hopeful for the best ofc, but I'm on such a long losing streak I need a "pick me up" event. To be fair, last Thanksgiving weekend's rather potent WWA event did jackpot DTW and it wasn't much less here. Too bad that was about the highlight of the entire winter. Not wishing to be the SEMI version of @tStacsh I shall attempt to remain more positive until the results align themselves. 

[Clinton]

Snowing hard enough that it's accumulating despite the warm temps.

[Black Hole]

0.1-0.2" near Tulsa tonight. It was fun!

[james1976]

It is STILL snowing here in the TC. It never quit. Been snowing lightly since the main event. Prolly only added up to a couple more tenths but I'm impressed it just keeps going. Radar actually filled back in around the metro. I see IA is getting some returns up into the central part of the state. Maybe we are starting to see some phasing. 

[jaster220]

Per the 12k NAM, I may have a very brief chance to see some flakes falling around 8-9 am. The rest of the day it keeps Wayne all rain with literally the snow line just north at Oakland county line. Finally brings temps down to finish as a couple hours of snow by 6 am Wednesday. Thursday evening's polar front actually looks like a better shot at seeing some colder snow falling and sticking. 

Look quick tomorrow am b4 you missed it in N Wayne:

[winterfreak]

33 with moderate snow. Nice coating on grass and cars.

[Iceresistance]

I got snowed BIG TIME! Radar said I got 2-3 incjes, but most of it melted. I have videos coming in the next 1-2 days!

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

33 with moderate snow. Nice coating on grass and cars.

Nice looking band going right through the heart of the city. 

[jaster220]

Not sure what GRR used for this future radar graphic but it keeps it snow over Detroit area. Hmm..

[james1976]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

It is STILL snowing here in the TC. It never quit. Been snowing lightly since the main event. Prolly only added up to a couple more tenths but I'm impressed it just keeps going. Radar actually filled back in around the metro. I see IA is getting some returns up into the central part of the state. Maybe we are starting to see some phasing. 

Actually finally stopped snowing here. Bummer. Thought maybe it would continue Nice long duration event though. 

On to round 2!

[Hawkeye]

DVN has an evening update saying models are trending drier due to weak forcing and dry air, so this event may be lighter than earlier expected.  I never expected more than an inch in the first place.

[Grizzcoat]

models are saying 3-4" here in C.IA just W of DSM. We will see. Flake size is going to have to improve if that is going to happen.  Probably 3/4" on grassy areas as I drove into work. But this is over performing HRRR and RAP thus far.... Not big expectations for the first snow of the season... but take what nature throws down that's for sure!!!

[Clinton]

Light snow is still falling this morning but it's melting faster than its falling now with a temp of 32.  I don't think I ever had more than a 1 inch on the ground at any given time.  It was good to see snow fall again and it has left a nice coating on the grass and trees.  NWS office may have gotten a little more.

 

NWS Kansas City

1.3" of snow here at the office in Pleasant Hill, MO so far. Still snowing as of midnight.

[Tom]

Tucked in the NE corner of the Arrowhead of MN, the LES hit the shores on a S/SE wind producing some heft totals!

[westMJim]

That is a rather unusual wind defection for Lake effect. I wonder how often over the years that has happened.

[Grizzcoat]

14 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That is a rather unusual wind defection for Lake effect. I wonder how often over the years that has happened.

Having spent a lot of time up there over years ice fishing/ winter camping etc. - about 3-4 times a winter. More than you think.  The great storm of early JAN 1994 was mainly lake effect- The folllowing are MN records - and occurred at Finland,MN (more specific than just Lake County)--

Most snow, 24 hours	36 inches (91 cm)	January 7, 1994	Lake County
Most snow, one storm	47 inches (119 cm)	January 6–8, 1994	Lake County

[Grizzcoat]

Officially 2" at KDSM for the event- -- 1.6" since midnight. Slowly starting to stick on concrete but one tell the latent heat remaining (69F just 5 days ago) . 4" soil depths are still just slightly above 0C so slow melting is occurring even on grassy areas.

1.6" was .19 of liquid . So about 8.5:1 ratio.

[Tom]

@jaster220, even though the closed low that tracked into the S Plains yesterday is beginning to weaken, I don't mind to see the Double Barrel Low that is forming and will ultimately lead into a long duration event over the GL's/OHV.  The blocking south of Hudson Bay is a prime location to slow down systems and "seed the cold" as we move into the heart of winter.

The 2 separate low's (Gulf States and MW) is something I've seen a couple times already since OCT over our region and it's showing me that this will create long duration events more often than not this season.  I'm diggin' it my man!

 

[Jayhawker85]

Well it snowed 2 inches overnight but only about .25 inches of it stuck on the ground due to warm ground temps. Oh well it was good to see flakes to get into the season!

[westMJim]

37 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Having spent a lot of time up there over years ice fishing/ winter camping etc. - about 3-4 times a winter. More than you think

Thanks, that is more than I would have thought. 

[Madtown]

Just now, westMJim said:

Thanks, that is more than I would have thought. 

Maybe not as heavy as this event, but lake enhancement happens with almost every clipper up that way as well.

[hawkstwelve]

Woke up to some moderately light snow falling. Temp sitting at 23.

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like the renewed cold air coming in on Friday is going to have some teeth to it. -10 to -15 with wind chill factored in. Brrr!

 

[shakjen]

Got 3.25” here already this morning. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Surprisingly  I have 2.5" on elevated  surfaces like the patio chairs.  Very little  stuck on pavement  surfaces. But northern  part of Wapello  county maybe a inch on some parking lots. Otherwise  we got zero work from this. Temp hovered at 30 to 32 so far.

 

[FV-Mike]

Glad to be back in the snow game this early. little over an inch so far

[bud2380]

4.5" report in far SE Iowa.  Wow.

 

[Tom]

Looks like we have some overachievers from this system.  Nice storm to kick off the season and many have their first 1” of snow pretty darn early this year!

[tStacsh]

Persistent Light snow here.  Should see an inch or 2 out of this on elevated surfaces.  Day time will limit accumulation.  Roads should stay just wet all day.  Decent start.  Funny enough, Nov 15th is the average the last 30 years of first trace of snow.  And here we are.  

[Niko]

@jaster220Radar shows all snow for Detroit, currently under a dry slot, but a nice batch from the south is making a b-line north towards us.

[Niko]

Currently at 34F w very light snow, but should pick up soon, especially tanite. Couple of inches looking very likely.

[FV-Mike]

Some bigger numbers coming out of the south suburbs

Downers Grove 3.1

Bolingbrook 3.5

Clarendon Hills 3

[gabel23]

Light snow leading to pixy dust blowing around. Gives me a nice winter feel at least! The ground temp is plenty cold as there is no melting what so ever. It's almost tundra like with how cold we have been. Nov. might go down as one of the coldest in recent memory. Now hopefully we can get something good moving forward this year! 

[james1976]

MPX only going with 1-2" for this second round. Snow has slowly increased. Temp has risen to 31. Not expecting much out of this but we'll see. Roads should stay mainly wet unless we get some high rates going.

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Maybe not as heavy as this event, but lake enhancement happens with almost every clipper up that way as well.

In east Michigan there is a lot of lake enhancement with a east and northeast wind off Lake Huron. And true lake effect with a east and north east wind. In the thumb with a north wind but seldom in November more so in late December and January. Anyway it is good to know that in the arrow head area a south and southeast wind can also produce a good lake effect. Here in my area the best lake effect happens with a W or WSW and WNW wind  and almost no lake effect with a NW wind.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Latest FSD AFD talks about how some models are not showing much snow with the front on Thursday but "pattern recognition and forecast soundings" suggest more snow showers than what is being modeled. They upped wording to 'slight chance POPs' but said that might trend higher with time.

On a related note, the latest GFS is still not showing hardly anything with the Thursday front but the latest Canadian is remaining steadfast in dropping 1-2 inches over the area. The GEM has seemed to have a better handle on the lingering snow over the past few days, FWIW.

Crossing my fingers and toes that this more snowier solution somehow wins out.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

@jaster220Radar shows all snow for Detroit, currently under a dry slot, but a nice batch from the south is making a b-line north towards us.

Stepped out at 7:15 to -SN and roofs cars and grass coated so technically I'm "on the board" with 0.1" for the season. Over-acheiver in mby for sure! At least we're lowering soil temps.