January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

It's been a bit further south than the other models, just seems to be coming into better agreement now.

 

For whatever reason, I've had a feeling about something for Wednesday for a while now but that "feeling" is quickly evaporating!

[Front Ranger]

925mb temps around +10 by late Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF.    Is that too high for lowland snow?

 

And then they quickly crash, of course.

[HighlandExperience]

00Z ECMWF says the transition is straight from dry to rain for most of us. Except the Hood Canal where it will probably snow for a week straight.

I hope that is wrong. I was concerned we might just moderate out of this air mass with nothing to show for. Just seems normal now.

[MossMan]

I'm back home finally. From one swamp to another.

You might get snow next week!

[ShawniganLake]

925mb temps around +10 by late Sunday per the 00Z ECMWF. Is that too high for lowland snow?

I think even for the hood canal that's too warm. Should be snowy on the peak of Rainier.

[TT-SEA]

Winter is over.

 

I thought we were supposed to see an epic January.

 

 

Yeah... we might have failed again.   

 

We need to start the planning process earlier next year.   Team meetings start in April.   Let think outside the box people!      

[Kayla]

Come again?

 

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F159204B-7A00-4B85-95CC-39145AB15BBD_zpsz9rzzskr.png

 

Looks cold in Bozeman...

[BLI snowman]

For whatever reason, I've had a feeling about something for Wednesday for a while now but that "feeling" is quickly evaporating!

Just like whatever precip that may make it here!

[TT-SEA]

And then they quickly crash, of course.

 

 

I have not seen that part.   I just clicked on Sunday afternoon and laughed.   

[ShawniganLake]

And then they quickly crash, of course.

Ever the optimist.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

I don't care what that map says, every time I would turn on the news I would see dump trucks removing snow and dumping it in rivers to get rid of it, cars buried, polar vortex mania, look at the models to see blues purples and pinks on the east coast and stupid green and reds for the west coast for 850 temps...week after week, month after month, year after year...for the last several years. It's our turn damnit!! Haha!

Lol, climo is a b*tch.

 

FWIW, last winter was our warmest on record, and we're on our way to another blowtorch this year, after a blast furnace summer and autumn.

[liquidsnow]

Yeah... we might have failed again.   

 

We need to start the planning process earlier next year.   Team meetings start in April.   Let think outside the box people!      

 

I propose we:

-Nuke the Pacific

-Fill the GOA with landfill

-Drop dry ice into the Pacfic

[Front Ranger]

This will still end up as the coldest January week since at least 2007 for most places. 

 

*cue luvsnow exclaiming angrily about how this is meaningless

[Deweydog]

Yeah... we might have failed again.

 

We need to start the planning process earlier next year. Team meetings start in April. Let think outside the box people!

I think more team building exercises would help. Trust falls and moss appreciation nature walks. A four hour block of Tim/Jim sensitivity training with actors portraying do's and don't scenarios is in order.

[TT-SEA]

Ahhhh.... the basin.

 

We are basking in 925mb temps of +10 and they still manage to be well below zero.   Not much different than what we have right now here.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the Euro might try something coldish around days 8-10.

[Phil]

You might get snow next week!

Atlanta has a better shot than I do. Suppression depression.

 

We actually need a SE ridge to score the proper storm track in La Niña winters.

[HighlandExperience]

Ahhhh.... the basin.

 

We are basking in 925mb temps of +10 and then still manage to be well below zero. Not much different than what we have right now here.

 

We haven't had much fake cold this winter.

[BLI snowman]

This will still end up as the coldest January week since at least 2007 for most places.

 

*cue luvsnow exclaiming angrily about how this is meaningless

Never bet against Nuevo Abril.

[TT-SEA]

I think more team building exercises would help. Trust falls and moss appreciation nature walks. A four hour block of Tim/Jim sensitivity training with actors portraying do's and don't scenarios is in order.

 

 

That got an honest laugh out loud from me here.... my son asked if the weather geeks were cracking jokes again.   

[Front Ranger]

I propose we:

-Nuke the Pacific

-Fill the GOA with landfill

-Drop dry ice into the Pacfic

 

Nuke China and start WWIII? I hear nuclear winter can get pretty chilly.

[MossMan]

This will still end up as the coldest January week since at least 2007 for most places.

 

*cue luvsnow exclaiming angrily about how this is meaningless

The only thing memorable about this week will be yet another epic collapse all the models took in just a 6hr time span.

[Deweydog]

Nuke China and start WWIII? I hear nuclear winter can get pretty chilly.

Take sun angles off the table entirely!

[Phil]

Nuke Yellowstone. That'll do it.

[Deweydog]

Southern BC/Whatcom County is in business early next week.

[MossMan]

Southern BC/Whatcom County is in business early next week.

Please can we round down and include northern Snohomish co in on that as well?

[Front Ranger]

The only thing memorable about this week will be yet another epic collapse all the models took in just a 6hr time span.

 

Yeah, it certainly looked like something bigger until almost the last minute. 

 

Still, for fans of cold, wintry weather, at least this January is delivering something better than almost all other recent Januaries. Jesse wanted cold sunshine, and he's getting it!

[TT-SEA]

Southern BC/Whatcom County is in business early next week.

 

Yes sir... 00Z ECMWF shows a snowstorm for Portland on day 8 and regionwide snow by the start of day 9.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow that is really bitter true Arctic air just across the US-Canada border at day 9.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010300/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010300/ecmwf_T850a_nwus_10.png

[Phil]

This will still end up as the coldest January week since at least 2007 for most places.

 

*cue luvsnow exclaiming angrily about how this is meaningless

Colder than 2013?!?!

[Kayla]

Nuke Yellowstone. That'll do it.

 

Please don't, I'm moving there next week!

[MossMan]

Yes sir... 00Z ECMWF shows a snowstorm for Portland on day 8 and regionwide snow by the start of day 9.

That must be the dip that many of the ensembles have been showing!

[Heavy Snow]

Yes sir... 00Z ECMWF shows a snowstorm for Portland on day 8 and regionwide snow by the start of day 9.

 

Yeah I just saw it. Snowstorm Corvallis north into Washington. There is still hope.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, it certainly looked like something bigger until almost the last minute.

 

Still, for fans of cold, wintry weather, at least this January is delivering something better than almost all other recent Januaries. Jesse wanted cold sunshine, and he's getting it!

Haven't had much sunshine yet...

[liquidsnow]

ONLY 10 DAYS AWAY!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Of course we need to get through the snow that the ECMWF forecasted last week for this week... then we can start worrying about next week.

 

Here is the map from last Friday for this week.   How much of this is yet to fall?    

 

[TT-SEA]

Please don't, I'm moving there next week!

 

 

Really?? 

 

We lose one female member to Bozeman and now another to Yellowstone?       

[Front Ranger]

Colder than 2013?!?!

 

Yep. Though that was the coldest air mass in a winter of very lackluster air masses. 

[Deweydog]

Looks very believable!!!