January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the cold keeps coming back this winter. Still seeing no signs of a prolonged mild period.

 

GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim, do you have the snow map ending at hour 240?

[Deweydog]

Tim, do you have the snow map ending at hour 240?

For whose location?

[Jesse]

GFS

Panic worthy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For whose location?

 

All locations.

[Phil]

Had not checked the SSTAs lately... looks like we are ending up with pretty much a neutral ENSO winter. That was my hope last spring and summer and I was told there was almost no chance with the Nina developing so fast.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

You were forecasting a strong niña initially. Then you blamed me for making you do it after the fact.

[Jesse]

PDX has seen 11 sub-40 highs so far this winter, today will make 12.

 

6 or those were 35 or lower. Unless PDX really screws the pooch today should be 7.

 

Not too shabby considering winter isn't even half over. Much better than recent years.

[Deweydog]

Up to 34 at Larch. Didn't see that coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE will pull off something like a 35/26 today...Unless they have a midnight  low.. Could be a few of those this evening!

[Timmy]

I was dreading this day!  of course the models would show an ideal setup for a dumping of snow at my place when I am In texas...

[Jesse]

Up to 34 at Larch. Didn't see that coming.

Not a very cold upper level airmass. You've been talking for about it for days.

[DareDuck]

Picked up about 5" in Bend since the morning yesterday. Been between 12-16 degrees the whole time, so this is really light snow. In a little lull now before the next storm. WSW in effect for 6-12" of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 34 at Larch. Didn't see that coming.

 

Wow! Very unimpressive airmass. -7C 850mb temps -4C 925mb

[Phil]

Also, this is a La Niña in terms of MEI. Not sure what Tim is referencing, because the low frequency convective state in the tropics was/is very much in a Niña state. The system has not deviated from this state, either.

[Jesse]

Wow! Very unimpressive airmass. -7C 850mb temps -4C 925mb

A lot of your posts read like Trump's twitter feed.

[luvssnow_spokane]

No... Just Jim's huge burning pentagram in his backyard.

Actually, that is the outline of a giant burning snowflake. I asked him.  reverse affect hypotheses

[Deweydog]

Not a very cold upper level airmass. You've been talking for about it for days.

Thicknesses are still sub-520, supposedly. With a dry air mass and snow cover, a 1,150 foot location would typically stay below freezing.

 

Crabby?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up about 5" in Bend since the morning yesterday. Been between 12-16 degrees the whole time, so this is really light snow. In a little lull now before the next storm. WSW in effect for 6-12" of snow.

 

I can't remember a winter that was anywhere near this for snow at Bend!

[Timmy]

I was dreading this day!  of course the models would show an ideal setup for a dumping of snow at my place when I am In texas...

And its not just for my weather weenie sake now. Wife, and newborn, power outage potential, first week of my wife's new job.  I am rooting against it big time now!

[Jesse]

Thicknesses are still sub-520, supposedly. With a dry air mass and snow cover, a 1,150 foot location would typically stay below freezing.

 

Crabby?

I'm guessing downsloping.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thicknesses are still sub-520, supposedly. With a dry air mass and snow cover, a 1,150 foot location would typically stay below freezing.

 

Crabby?

 

Its 26 up at my place...A little higher, but perhaps the downslope/mixing is maximizing the daytime heating potential there?

[Phil]

This is a prime example of you being an a** Tim. It isn't like you are taking someone to task, but much like some of your other posts, you make these statements like some petulant child with some kind of grudge against a fellow third grader.

He's still pissy after busting on the summer pattern.

[Timmy]

Thicknesses are still sub-520, supposedly. With a dry air mass and snow cover, a 1,150 foot location would typically stay below freezing.

 

Crabby?

pretty interesting temp, Tidewater in the NW oregon coast range (2000') is a balmy 19 at this hour.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was dreading this day!  of course the models would show an ideal setup for a dumping of snow at my place when I am In texas...

 

It has the potential to be one of the best patterns for snow of the winter at our spots. One of those patterns where you go 2 miles down the road and there is nothing.

[Phil]

July will blowtorch.

Warm September.

Strong Niña.

Phil made me do it.

"Epic" January.

 

-Tim

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX just bounced to 34...Certainly disappointing. 

[Deweydog]

I'm guessing downsloping.

Timing is a factor. They lost the wind which blew pretty much all night. Still, it's pretty odd from a meteorological standpoint. I watch that sensor pretty religiously as we're basically at the foot of the "mountain."

[jsf343]

Larch on Washington side? I can tell you Larch Mt. on the Oregon side we are still at 20° (Close to 2000') and east wind is picking up pretty good.

[Deweydog]

Larch on Washington side? I can tell you Larch Mt. on the Oregon side we are still at 20° (Close to 2000') and east wind is picking up pretty good.

There's only one REAL Larch Mountain. You have to have a correctional facility to be truly legit.

[Deweydog]

July will blowtorch.

Warm September.

Strong Niña.

Phil made me do it.

"Epic" January.

 

-Tim

Jesus f*cking Christ...

[DareDuck]

I can't remember a winter that was anywhere near this for snow at Bend!

Yea it's been pretty remarkable. Snow on the ground for almost 3 weeks. Snow depth between 5-15" most of the time now back to around 8".

[jsf343]

There's only one REAL Larch Mountain. You have to have a correctional facility to be truly legit.

[Jesse]

PDX just bounced to 34...Certainly disappointing.

Sad!

[ShawniganLake]

And its not just for my weather weenie sake now. Wife, and newborn, power outage potential, first week of my wife's new job.  I am rooting against it big time now!

Well this should lock it in for everyone else.  Thanks!

[jsf343]

Lol, ok I will start calling our Larch "Larch wannabe"

[Jesse]

Larch on Washington side? I can tell you Larch Mt. on the Oregon side we are still at 20° (Close to 2000') and east wind is picking up pretty good.

I think that was actually the first Larch Mountain in the area. Do you live off of the road to the summit?

[Phil]

Jesus f*cking Christ...

My thoughts exactly.

[BLI snowman]

PDX has seen 11 sub-40 highs so far this winter, today will make 12.

 

6 or those were 35 or lower. Unless PDX really screws the pooch today should be 7.

 

Not too shabby considering winter isn't even half over. Much better than recent years.

 

21st century climo says that the peak of our winter is over and we're moving into late winter. Pseudo spring begins after January 18.

[MossMan]

21st century climo says that the peak of our winter is over and we're moving into late winter. Pseudo spring begins after January 18.

It's all about the bulbs popping and the trees blooming! Tim will have fruit ripe and ready to be picked off his fruit trees by January 25th! 

[Timmy]

cool write up here on coming weeks https://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/one-week-arctic-outbreak-on-the-way-as-potential-pattern-change-