January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

It's all about the bulbs popping and the trees blooming! Tim will have fruit ripe and ready to be picked off his fruit trees by January 25th! 

 

They should move Groundhog Day up to January 2 for us.  Maybe even December 2. 

[Phil]

About those EPS weeklies..

 

Graphic stuff.

[BLI snowman]

cool write up here on coming weeks https://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/one-week-arctic-outbreak-on-the-way-as-potential-pattern-change-

 

Interesting, but it looks like they misspelled "weak".

[Jesse]

21st century climo says that the peak of our winter is over and we're moving into late winter. Pseudo spring begins after January 18.

You were the first with this predictable response! My money was on Dewey.

[Perturbed Member]

For people looking for false hope, turn to the NAVGEM.

 

For Wednesday it shows the same solution as the GFS and everything else, low staying south and missing PDX barely. 

 

For the weekend, the BC low has trended stronger and the SW low isn't able to quite bomb and curl north as soon. Much further south track. Doubt it happens but its nice to look at.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017010306/navgem_mslp_pcpn_namer_17.png

[BLI snowman]

You were the first with this predictable response! My money was on Dewey.

 

Pay up, bud!

[Deweydog]

You were the first with this predictable response! My money was on Dewey.

Winter isn't yet half over.

 

Winter is December 1 through February 28, meaning the half way point is January 14 or thereabouts. Today is January 3 or thereabouts, approximately 11 days prior to January 14.

 

Sun angles, however, are an ENTIRELY different and FAR more foreboding issue...

[Jesse]

Winter isn't yet half over.

 

Winter is December 1 through February 28, meaning the half way point is January 14 or thereabouts. Today is January 3 or thereabouts, approximately 11 days prior to January 14.

 

Sun angles, however, are an ENTIRELY different and FAR more foreboding issue...

Indeed. We have less than a week until they start coming into play in a VERY big way.

[Deweydog]

Indeed. We have less than a week until they start coming into play in a VERY big way.

They're more an issue today than they were yesterday. Should be better tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Do winters where Tim and Phil argue semantics over whether it was a weak Niña or minus neutral tend to be front loaded, back loaded, or fully loaded?

[jsf343]

I think that was actually the first Larch Mountain in the area. Do you live off of the road to the summit?

 

Yeah, last area of homes on the way up. We get all the winter goodies, including ice and east wind. Wish I could figure out how to post a pic, really beautiful with snow on all the trees.

[Phil]

Do winters where Tim and Phil argue semantics over weather it was a weak Niña or minus neutral tend to be front loaded, back loaded, or fully loaded?

Fully loaded from December to March, minus February.

 

Followed by cold, drizzly springs.

[Jesse]

Yeah, last area of homes on the way up. We get all the winter goodies, including ice and east wind. Wish I could figure out how to post a pic, really beautiful with snow on all the trees.

That's an awesome location. You must be near the Larch Mountain scenic corridor. Post more!

[Perturbed Member]

Now that I think about it, the NAVGEM looks a lot like the GEM for this weekend. Not the perfect track obviously but I think it would give a lot of us at least some snow instead of the almost non existent snow on the GFS. The GFS track is so depressing to look at with all the SW flow aloft doing its damage before we even get any precip. Pretty much a worst case track. 

 

The odds aren't great, but I hope the GFS and ECMWF will be wrong with this.

[Deweydog]

Now that I think about it, the NAVGEM looks a lot like the GEM for this weekend. Not the perfect track obviously but I think it would give a lot of us at least some snow instead of the almost non existent snow on the GFS. The GFS track is so depressing to look at with all the SW flow aloft doing its damage before we even get any precip. Pretty much a worst case track.

 

The odds aren't great, but I hope the GFS and ECMWF will be wrong with this.

I too would like some snow.

 

Would be nice if people would chime in to get the pulse of this place with regard to potential snowfall acceptance.

[jsf343]

Yes that's the area. I'll try. I at least try to come on and read the posts in the winter time, they are always entertaining and my type of humor as well as good knowledge and discussion on models which I like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm afraid to look at the noon temp update. 40, 50, +? 

 

 

33, I can live with that...

[Deweydog]

I'm afraid to look at the noon temp update. 40, 50, +?

 

 

33, I can live with that...

What if it was 34?

[Timmy]

What if it was 34?

Don't be rediculous

[Deweydog]

Well at least it's 35 in Scappoose...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highs will peak early this afternoon, though we will have to contend with sun angle madness...

[Deweydog]

NAM still dry as a bone for tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorge gradient only -5.3mb right now. SOMEONE was talking about an EPIC east wind storm a couple days ago.

[Kayla]

NAM still dry as a bone for tomorrow.

 

Outlier!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The NAM is pretty consistent that I have a brief flurry at 8am tomorrow morning...I will have to remember to call in late to work.

[Deweydog]

Gorge gradient only -5.3mb right now. SOMEONE was talking about an EPIC east wind storm a couple days ago.

They do increase quite a bit tonight. Doesn't look as impressive as early December but still notably strong.

[Jesse]

Gorge gradient only -5.3mb right now. SOMEONE was talking about an EPIC east wind storm a couple days ago.

You and Rob really need to bury the hatchet. And I don't mean into one of each other's torsos!

[Deweydog]

You and Rob really need to bury the hatchet. And I don't mean into one of each other's torsos!

What happened???

[Jesse]

What happened???

What didn't happen???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What happened???

 

I challenged his forecast high of 15 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

26 here now... after waking up to 24.

 

Coldest day of the year so far.

[Timmy]

I challenged his forecast high of 15 at PDX.

Did he kick you out of his group?

[Timmy]

Where do we rank this amoungst model busts?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why is the NWS STILL forecasting a high of 19 at Hood River tomorrow?!

[Jesse]

Solar noon has passed. **The sun is officially lowering.**

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did he kick you out of his group?

 

Yes, along with a "lifetime ban." I "no longer exist."

 

We'll probably make up and I'll be back in a few weeks. These are stressful times.

[jakeinthevalley]

Light radar returns almost to Roseburg now. Won't be long. Shaping up to be a memorable event in the mid valley over the next 24 hours.

[Deweydog]

I challenged his forecast high of 15 at PDX.

I missed that. D**n...

 

Would be nice if it culminated in the ultimate "my location" dance off. Drive that disco big rig and pull into the truck stop and get yourself some scrapple made of sexy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light radar returns almost to Roseburg now. Won't be long. Shaping up to be a memorable event in the mid valley over the next 24 hours.

 

The mid-Rogue and Umpqua valleys you mean...Power of positive thinking.

[Deweydog]

Where do we rank this amoungst model busts?

There's a difference between a bust and an event being diluted. From that perspective, this was pretty bad.