January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

Still gusty NE winds here in Bellingham. Took a drive around Lake Whatcom and headed east on Y road towards Mt Baker Highway. That place is a gold mine for snow/cold. Somehow I'd never made the drive out there during any snow event. Always wondered how they faired based on the proximity to the hills on both sides, being open to the North, but also partially sheltered...

 

It was 23*F on Northshore near lake level with a dusting of snow at best.  I got 1/2 mile east on Y road which also increases elevation about 100 feet and there was solid snow cover and temp had dropped to 21. Another half mile and it was 19*F with 2-3" and dead calm, trees flocked.  Halfway between Northshore and Mt Baker Highway there was a slight NE breeze and you could see the snow covered fields had been a little wind blown and hardly anything on the trees. Fascinating microclimate. The road itself goes from 315 feet and peaks at almost 700 feet, and back down to 450 feet at Mt Baker Highway. For anyone who knows much about Whatcom County, this might be the slightest bit interesting, especially in comparison to all this FLURRY TALK for tomorrow. 

[Jesse]

Yes, along with a "lifetime ban." I "no longer exist."

 

We'll probably make up and I'll be back in a few weeks. These are stressful times.

You've been trolling the cold weenies pretty hard lately too. This feels like an equal blame type of situation.

[jakeinthevalley]

The mid-Rogue and Umpqua valleys you mean...Power of positive thinking.

I conveniently left that part out......CYA, you know!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You've been trolling the cold weenies pretty hard lately too. This feels like an equal blame type of situation.

 

It probably was, I won't lie, I probably bare a lot of responsibility for the events of that night...

[ShawniganLake]

About those EPS weeklies..

 

Graphic stuff.

Any Details?

[Jesse]

It probably was, I won't lie, I probably bare a lot of responsibility for the events of that night...

Sad!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Spokane under sunny skies has only risen 4 degrees today, if winds slack off a bit tonight they could go sub-zero me thinks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sad!

 

I know, but it is always very tempting to rain on the wishcasting parade. 

[EA_TTD]

Any Details?

At or below normal through 2/4 then above normal through February.  If we're gonna get it, now's the time.

[Prairiedog]

GFS MOS is 28/12 at PDX Friday.

Seems a bit overdone ( or is that underdone) and the lows would indicate some decoupling.  That would make the daytime temps go up I would think.  Don't think it will happen.  Hope it does though. 

[Deweydog]

Seems a bit overdone ( or is that underdone) and the lows would indicate some decoupling. That would make the daytime temps go up I would think. Don't think it will happen. Hope it does though.

36.

[Timmy]

FWIW Saturday on the Nam looks a little further south with everything than its previous runs.  unsubstantial I know, but this is what we have been reduced to unfortunately.

[Jesse]

At or below normal through 2/4 then above normal through February. If we're gonna get it, now's the time.

By now you must mean the next 32 days.

[Jesse]

I know, but it is always very tempting to rain on the wishcasting parade.

I'm just glad I have completely steered clear of the Facebook weather group dumpster fires. Seems like Mark's blog but worse in most of those from what I can tell. This forum is enough weather drama for me!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm just glad I have completely steered clear of the Facebook weather group dumpster fires. Seems like Mark's blog but worse in most of those from what I can tell. This forum is enough weather drama for me!

 

It is like the drama of here, X100. People literally go out of their way to cause massive drama. I know of existing dropbox files cataloging all of the carnage. 

[Jesse]

36.

I would hope the low level cold has a little more panache at that point but conservative has definitely been the way to go lately.

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW Saturday on the Nam looks a little further south with everything than its previous runs.  unsubstantial I know, but this is what we have been reduced to unfortunately.

 

NAM will join with Prime Minister GEM and Admiral NAVGEM  soon enough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM will join with Prime Minister GEM and Admiral NAVGEM  soon enough. 

 

Could we at least trend tomorrow north about 100 miles?

[Deweydog]

I would hope the low level cold has a little more panache at that point but conservative has definitely been the way to go lately.

You call it conservative, I call it observantly pragmatic. Tomato, tomato.

 

Gradients look light and we should still see plenty of sunshine after what will be a morning in the low-mid 20's. 33-34 is possible if high clouds advance sooner.

[Prairiedog]

Several weather forums, this one included (and I've commented on it before) contains sometimes a little too much wishcasting, hyperbole, and unrealistic forecasting based on stuff simply too far out.  It gets peoples hopes up or for some of the general population that visits here it instills unnecessary fear and concern.  It's always bothered me.  At the same time most of us are pretty starved for most kinds of extreme weather, esp. snow and cold.  I think its always thoughtful as we journey through our weather learning curve to be careful about hanging our hats on these things even beyond maybe 5, 6 days out.  We can surely mention stuff beyond that, talk about it, show a little hopeful excitement.   But dang, it gets downright out of control as the candy land stuff gets talked about as if its absolute fact.  Not good science.  Not good forecasting.  But hey, I peek out there all the time too. 

[BLI snowman]

Could we at least trend tomorrow north about 100 miles?

 

GFS will trend south with Wednesday and north with Saturday. And give us a bright yellow and purple middle finger on the tropical tidbits precip type maps.

[Deweydog]

Several weather forums, this one included (and I've commented on it before) contains sometimes a little too much wishcasting, hyperbole, and unrealistic forecasting based on stuff simply too far out. It gets peoples hopes up or for some of the general population that visits here it instills unnecessary fear and concern. It's always bothered me. At the same time most of us are pretty starved for most kinds of extreme weather, esp. snow and cold. I think its always thoughtful as we journey through our weather learning curve to be careful about hanging our hats on these things even beyond maybe 5, 6 days out. We can surely mention stuff beyond that, talk about it, show a little hopeful excitement. But dang, it gets downright out of control as the candy land stuff gets talked about as if its absolute fact. Not good science. Not good forecasting. But hey, I peek out there all the time too.

I'm sure people will stop doing it now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm sure people will stop doing it now.

I will, I feel bad now.

[Prairiedog]

I'm sure people will stop doing it now.

LOL.  And people will stop wishing for snow and cold too.  Naw, juts wouldn't be as much fun.  It would be like watching color tv in black and white.

[Perturbed Member]

Could we at least trend tomorrow north about 100 miles?

 

I think we are most likely screwed on Wednesday. At least I might be able to drive to the top of a hill and look south and see the subtle but distinct look of snow falling in the distance. That is what I have been reduced to. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 at SLE wow

[Prairiedog]

I will, I feel bad now.

We're the deplorables.  What would one expect. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Even 32 with a 20mph wind is cold. Go stand in it for 10 minutes.

[jakeinthevalley]

37 at SLE wow

Wind chill below freezing though.

[Dave]

The HRRRRR shows southern valley rain?  This is a model that can't be trusted, right?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010319/hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_15.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drunken Uncle is running...

[Deweydog]

37 at SLE wow

 

They'd be better off with 850mb temps at +12c and a nice fogversion.  

[Deweydog]

The HRRRRR shows southern valley rain?  This is a model that can't be trusted, right?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010319/hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

It's powered by negative thoughts, so you be the judge.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

The HRRRRR shows southern valley rain?  This is a model that can't be trusted, right?

 

 

None of them can be... it is all a sham and we're the lambs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They'd be better off with 850mb temps at +12c and a nice fogversion.

Well January 2013 had 5 sub freezing highs...

[Dave]

It's powered by negative thoughts, so you be the judge.  

Looks like I'll be busting out the umbrella.

[Deweydog]

Looks like I'll be busting out the umbrella.

 

Shouldn't be much rain.  A hood will probably suffice.  

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS has the precip reaching 10 miles further north. Score!!!

[MossMan]

Currently 10 degrees with a DP of 0 at Winthrop. Cannot wait to move there someday...or at least have a second place over there until retirement. 

Here at work its currently 29 degrees with about an inch of snow left in the shady areas. 

[Trainwreck]

Been snowing since early yesterday morning here. Really amazing and strange. Not on radar, very low level stuff. Picked up 7" since yesterday morning and most of it today. Temp 14 and a strong storm is imminent.

 

Redmond Or