January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Warm air advection is severe enough on  the 18z GFS that it  paints a big 0 for PDX snow this weekend. Remember when the GFS and Euro were both showing 10-18 inches of snow this week? Life was good back then. 

[BLI snowman]

Another downslope windstorm next Thursday???

 

And ice, can't forget the ice!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I need a new lawn mower.

 

That will take 80mph gusts depending on the terrain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is a very possible evolution.

They have all been "possible" and all failed so we shall see.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Warm air advection is severe enough on  the 18z GFS that it  paints a big 0 for PDX snow this weekend. Remember when the GFS and Euro were both showing 10-18 inches of snow this week? Life was good back then. 

good ol'days

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wouldn't surprise met to see a trend toward more landfalling lows on the N. CA coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm air advection is severe enough on  the 18z GFS that it  paints a big 0 for PDX snow this weekend. Remember when the GFS and Euro were both showing 10-18 inches of snow this week? Life was good back then. 

 

I think the GEM will blow our minds tonight, you know just a feeling and positive vibes I am sending the way of the weather God's.

[Deweydog]

That will take 80mph gusts depending on the terrain.

 

Yeah, I'm not holding my breath.  I've heard stories people ended up with John Deere riders on 1-9-1880. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Southern Oregon Looks to score again... 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Winter is over 240 hours, about four days before the first day of spring.  Dolt must not have seen his shadow.  

[Jesse]

Roseburg is looking like the I-5 corridor cold spot for western Oregon this afternoon. Not often do you see that.

[Perturbed Member]

Southern Oregon Looks to score again... 

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_6.png

 

Last weekend I was getting to watch with envy as the section between Kelso and Olympia kept getting snow from that stalled low. This weekend I will get to enjoy watching the areas south get slammed. Awesome! 

 

Don't worry though, snow will always be promised in the long range GFS and Euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws says up to 1" south of Salem. Seems bullish to me!

[MossMan]

People do get their hopes up.  It's even inspired a Hitler video.  Personally, I picture a group of anti-social weather-model programmers who are intentionally ***ing with us.

I bet that is what happened! They made sure everyone was in a frenzy with the nearing 1950 type set up they programmed into the models, then they all watched and laughed as the forum completely melted down when those bastards switched all of the models to "crap mode" in a span of 6hrs...If you are reading this you group of anti-social weather model programmers...we know where you live...and we will be burning all of your magic the gathering cards...or whatever the anti socials are into these days...

[Dave]

Winter is over 240 hours, about four days before the first day of spring.  Dolt must not have seen his shadow.  

You want a winter prediction?  I'll give you a winter prediction.  It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be gray, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life

[stuffradio]

Ice ice baby

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I kind of like where the GEM and Euro are going after day 8. Block looks much better on the Euro. Drunk Uncle tagging along, or a blend of the two. I sure am looking forward to the back-to-back east wind events/storms and then the big ice storm begins Saturday morning. Fun times! Let's not throw in the towel just yet for the 2nd week/middle of January.

 

@3:40 PM 31.0, dp 17, east wind 25-35mph near West Gresham

[Jesse]

Euro ensemble would lead me to believe we stay in a general chilly to cold pattern the next ten days.

[Gradient Keeper]

I kind of like where the GEM and Euro are going after day 8. Block looks much better on the Euro. Drunk Uncle tagging along, or a blend of the two. I sure am looking forward to the back-to-back east wind events/storms and then the big ice storm begins Saturday morning. Fun times! Let's not throw in the towel just yet for the 2nd week/middle of January.

 

@3:40 PM 31.0, dp 17, east wind 25-35mph near West Gresham

Edit: 30.5 Falling quickly despite gusty winds

 

Cold air thickening up pretty good.

850s -13c piling up against the Washington Cascades

[MossMan]

Euro ensemble would lead me to believe we stay in a general chilly to cold pattern the next ten days.

Could you post those if you are able to?

[westcoastexpat]

Ridiculous.

 

We make forecasts... passionately. Going back and scoring the results without insults should be completely acceptable. It certainly happens to me when I make a bad forecast. In fact... Phil went back in May and found my post from February to tell me that I busted. And that appeared to be the case at the time. I was not offended at all. But it ended up being mostly right.

It definitely wasn't nice what Phil did, but we all make mistakes and we are all guilty of trolling, so we shouldn't be throwing stones at Phil, Tim. Even Phil said we wouldn't see much cold or snow until February and look how that turned out. I make mistakes all the time. Everyone sucks at forecasting multiple times per year. It happens. Just gotta learn from it and try improve.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some ensemble improvement. 

[Jesse]

Could you post those if you are able to?

I'm at work right now now and hard to post maps on my phone but here's a link:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/ensemble-mean-and-spread-four-standard-parameters?time=2017010312,0,2017010312&parameter=Temperature%20at%20850hPa&area=North%20America

[Timmy]

Down to 24 after a high of 27. Could have easily been in the upper teens today for a high had this panned out as modeled.

[MossMan]

I'm at work right now now and hard to post maps on my phone but here's a link:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/ensemble-mean-and-spread-four-standard-parameters?time=2017010312,0,2017010312&parameter=Temperature%20at%20850hPa&area=North%20America

Thanks! 

And currently down to 27 at work, going to be a chilly night!

[Deweydog]

New game!

 

Can PDX drop below 28 by midnight???

[Jesse]

PDX pulling off a 34/28 day so far, but a midnight low wouldn't surprise me.

[Prairiedog]

Currently 10 degrees with a DP of 0 at Winthrop. Cannot wait to move there someday...or at least have a second place over there until retirement. 

Here at work its currently 29 degrees with about an inch of snow left in the shady areas. 

I post video snap shots from there periodically from a good live feed.  Absolutely love Winthrop.  I'd move there in a heartbeat if I could give up steelhead and salmon fishing.  We often go up and stay there for a week around Christmas at Sun Mountain Lodge.  There's about a foot on the ground right now. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Pretty impressive visible satellite loop with a large cloud shield creeping closer. Looks like a haboob approaching.  Even casting a  nice shadow ahead of it thanks to the sun angle!!

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen on team Euro/GFS for the weekend. ZR to Rain. 

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

This thing isn't quite 2005 status, but it was pretty underwhelming. The truly cold air was never delivered and we get the worst possible way to transition out of it. The majority of SEA and PDX got basically nothing going into it either. 

 

Hopefully January can deliver something better in the coming weeks. 

[MossMan]

I post video snap shots from there periodically from a good live feed.  Absolutely love Winthrop.  I'd move there in a heartbeat if I could give up steelhead and salmon fishing.  We often go up and stay there for a week around Christmas at Sun Mountain Lodge.  There's about a foot on the ground right now. 

I cannot wait to have a place to call my own there someday!! 

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen on team Euro/GFS for the weekend. ZR to Rain.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

This thing isn't quite 2005 status, but it was pretty underwhelming. The truly cold air was never delivered and we get the worst possible way to transition out of it. The majority of SEA and PDX got basically nothing going into it either.

 

Hopefully January can deliver something better in the coming weeks.

There isn't really another team to be on at the moment.

[Prairiedog]

People do get their hopes up.  It's even inspired a Hitler video.  Personally, I picture a group of anti-social weather-model programmers who are intentionally ***ing with us.

How bad is it when we have to summon the spirit of hitler to help get us our weather.  Pretty amazing!  I'm sure there are a few here that still live in the basement of their parents, eating meatloaf and nachos.  LOL  But its better than beating the dog.

[bainbridgekid]

I got my girlfriend skates for Christmas and am still hoping the smaller ponds will be skateable by Friday.

 

Seems possible with 3 more nights in the upper teens and low 20's since the ponds were so primed going into this cold spell.

 

If I don't post again after Friday, you will know this model bust will have claimed its first victim.

[Dave]

Team dolt looks to get an inch of snow.  If I never saw another ice storm, that would be too soon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I got my girlfriend skates for Christmas and am still hoping the smaller ponds will be skateable by Friday.

 

Seems possible with 3 more nights in the upper teens and low 20's since the ponds were so primed going into this cold spell.

 

If I don't post again after Friday, you will know this model bust will have claimed its first victim.

One of the lakes over by my cabin is already 8 inches thick. I am going to check the lake down the road from my house tonight. Pretty cold air mass as it was only 29 today at home after 19.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazingly beautiful evening with the snow covered mountains and distant cloud shield

[TT-SEA]

Not much wind here... but you can really tell the difference this evening on the ridge with the snow being blow off the trees today.   You can also see the wind protected crevices with the trees still covered.    High of only 26 here.

 

 

[Brennan]

I got my girlfriend skates for Christmas and am still hoping the smaller ponds will be skateable by Friday.

 

Seems possible with 3 more nights in the upper teens and low 20's since the ponds were so primed going into this cold spell.

 

If I don't post again after Friday, you will know this model bust will have claimed its first victim.

Bring her up to Bellingham! Lake Geneva still had slush on it going into this cold spell. Its solid now. AGAIN.

[Prairiedog]

I cannot wait to have a place to call my own there someday!! 

I love where I live on a large creek but we fell in love with Winthrop years ago.  My wife teaches, I'm a retired teacher and I know she could get a job there.  Only problem is its very isolated but it's an amazing area.  The Methow Valley is truly an amazing place.