January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

PDX down to 27, dp 10 with east winds 35mph. That's a modified blast period.

 

So ZR looks pretty much inevitable at this point, your thoughts on potential ice amounts or how damaging this could be? You really think we have much of a shot for snow?

[Deweydog]

PDX down to 27, dp 10 with east winds 35mph. That's a modified blast period.

Models CLEARLY underestimated the intensity of this blast.

[Front Ranger]

What if this is the 21st Century version of January 1950?

 

We're still tracking nicely with 1948-49.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX-MFR gradient +11.3mb. Might be the strongest northerly gradient I can remember for western Oregon

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KPDX+KMFR

[Kayla]

I can remember 2 freezing rain events here in 14 years.     One was pretty bad in 2012.    Similar type of location with outflow exposure and elevation compared to where you are now.    I remember people from Seattle warning us about freezing rain in North Bend when we moved here.    Just never seems to happen.   The overrunning events that have had snow to the valley floor always seem to transition directly to rain without the destructive stop in between.  

 

Its not a PNW phenomenon... its a Gorge phenomenon.  

 

That's definitely true. No doubt we are much more affected here completely exposed to the Gorge and especially at 1,000ft which is usually right near the top of the cold surface layer.

[luminen]

First sub-freezing high of the season in Victoria proper today. We ended up with a 30F/27F day. Yesterday was close but ended up being just a fraction of a degree over freezing for about an hour. It's a shame there wasn't much snow. Almost all of it has disappeared in the dry winds and we're still getting blasted. It's interesting that many places even immediately north or south of the outflow ended up above freezing. Next week is not looking as cold but suddenly looking much more interesting for snow prospects up this way; I'd take that over a week in dry outflow any day.

 

The Fraser outflow really does seem like a focused hose. I'm north of it yet shielded by the north shore mountains from the outflow from Whistler. Squamish has been doing extremely well. That's probably the best climate in the lower mainland for snow and summer heat. It was pretty hot last summer for a few days there.

[Heavy Snow]

Even if snow doesn't reach PDX Metro north tomorrow. We want the areas to the south of us get as much snow as possible. This is because as the system approaches from the SW on Saturday, if the ground is snow covered it will help entrench in the low level cold even more areas south of us. As the warmer air tries to override the snow covered areas in SW OR and Southern Willamette Valley, it will help to cool the warmer air so when it makes it to us it won't be as warm, so we have a better chance of a slower transition to ice then rain, in addition to cold air pouring out of the Gorge. Even a slight delay in the warmer air can mean all the difference in the world between a dusting or 6 inches.

[Dave]

I can remember 2 freezing rain events here in 14 years.     One was pretty bad in 2012.    Similar type of location with outflow exposure and elevation compared to where you are now.    I remember people from Seattle warning us about freezing rain in North Bend when we moved here.    Just never seems to happen.   The overrunning events that have had snow to the valley floor always seem to transition directly to rain without the destructive stop in between.  

 

Its not a PNW phenomenon... its a Gorge phenomenon.  

Eugene has had 2 devastating regional zr events in the last 3 years.  One in Feb 2014, and one a couple of weeks ago.  You live well above North Bend proper.  I'm guessing that the town experiences them far more than you do at your elevated location.

[Kayla]

PDX down to 27, dp 10 with east winds 35mph. That's a modified blast period.

 

Wind chill of 10º. Brisk.

[BLI snowman]

We're still tracking nicely with 1948-49.

That will change pretty dang soon.

[Front Ranger]

Models CLEARLY underestimated the intensity of this blast.

 

It is funny how almost regardless of the strength of the air mass, surface temps seem to develop differently than people think they will based on the models.

[Brennan]

I think I know where you were at.  We sometimes hay the fields just past the glenn-echo gardens.  It is quite high and steep terrain up there!  Probably good for a quad/snowmobile for times like these.  I doubt much NE wind makes it around the glen but maybe some up squalicum lake rd?

 

The wind is NOT winding down as forecast, it seems to be spooling up a bit this afternoon, particularly the gusts.  Already down to 23 tonight.  I see Abbotsford DP is 1*  No wonder all the snow sublimed!  I'm wondering if with the stalled front the high pressure movement is slower out than advertised as well.  Everything seems to be off on the models with this front.

 

 

Yes I was in that general area. It's gorgeous around there in the summer. I in fact did notice the breeze on Squalicum Lake Road, and no wind to be found just a tad east on the Y Road. You could tell the difference in the snow for sure. The snow in the fields west of Squalicum Lake Road had that smooth wind blown look to it while the snow just east of there towards Y road was thicker and more caked to things. Fascinating microclimate in through there. 

 

The wind originally was suppose to wind down, but they did issue a wind advisory up north here earlier this evening so I wasn't totally caught off guard. The NE has been persistent this winter! I can't imagine being up in Sumas right now. Brrr. 

[Deweydog]

Even if snow doesn't reach PDX Metro north tomorrow. We want the areas to the south of us get as much snow as possible. This is because as the system approaches from the SW on Saturday, if the ground is snow covered it will help entrench in the low level cold even more areas south of us. As the warmer air tries to override the snow covered areas in SW OR and Southern Willamette Valley, it will help to cool the warmer air so when it makes it to us it won't be as warm, so we have a better chance of a slower transition to ice then rain, in addition to cold air pouring out of the Gorge. Even a slight delay in the warmer air can mean all the difference in the world between a dusting or 6 inches.

That makes no sense. Mid and upper level warmth is not affected in any way by ground cover. The only manner the surface affects it in an obvious manner is via terrain.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well I went ahead and used tinypic in case not everyone can view it

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/jij639.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/50mmt.jpg

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/bdjt4o.jpg

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/anlq2u.jpg

[Deweydog]

It is funny how almost regardless of the strength of the air mass, surface temps seem to develop differently than people think they will based on the models.

Warmer, generally.

[Front Ranger]

That will change pretty dang soon.

 

Most likely! But you never know...

 

PDX only had .2" of snow that winter until 1/19. Plenty of moderate cold before that, though.

[Deweydog]

Nice pics, Timmy!

[MikeBC]

I'm impressed how strong outflow winds are at YXX.

 

They got a gust of 45mph at 25F

[luminen]

Eugene has had 2 devastating regional zr events in the last 3 years.  One in Feb 2014, and one a couple of weeks ago.  You live well above North Bend proper.  I'm guessing that the town experiences them far more than you do at your elevated location.

 

2014 wasn't that bad to be honest. I didn't knowtice any "deveastation". 

[Perturbed Member]

Feels chilly outside. Winds gusting close to 40 mph out of the east even at HIO. 9F windchill. 

[Front Ranger]

Warmer, generally.

 

I'm talking more about the timing of things. Almost always takes longer to get cold than people are expecting, that's for sure. And cold events tend to peak later than models would indicate at face value.

[Jesse]

Even if snow doesn't reach PDX Metro north tomorrow. We want the areas to the south of us get as much snow as possible. This is because as the system approaches from the SW on Saturday, if the ground is snow covered it will help entrench in the low level cold even more areas south of us. As the warmer air tries to override the snow covered areas in SW OR and Southern Willamette Valley, it will help to cool the warmer air so when it makes it to us it won't be as warm, so we have a better chance of a slower transition to ice then rain, in addition to cold air pouring out of the Gorge. Even a slight delay in the warmer air can mean all the difference in the world between a dusting or 6 inches.

Pseudo-meteorology!

[Brennan]

Paw patrol, paw patrol, paw paw paw paw paw patrol, is on a roll!

[Heavy Snow]

That makes no sense. Mid and upper level warmth is not affected in any way by ground cover. The only manner the surface affects it in an obvious manner is via terrain.

You have to think deeper. It's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So how reliable is that UKMET? lol

[Gradient Keeper]

40mph gust Battle Ground

[Timmy Supercell]

So how reliable is that UKMET? lol

 

I often forget that model exists. That's how reliable. 

[Deweydog]

I'm talking more about the timing of things. Almost always takes longer to get cold than people are expecting, that's for sure.

I suppose, although until 48 hours out or so this event did seem to have more of a bite to the initial cold advection. It's definitely a hallmark of our state of affairs, though. Erring on the side of slower and more moderate is almost always the way to go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS thinks upslope against the coast range could squeeze out 1-2" of snow for Corvallis. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That makes no sense. Mid and upper level warmth is not affected in any way by ground cover. The only manner the surface affects it in an obvious manner is via terrain.

That's NOT what rod hill said. Now what??

[Deweydog]

You have to think deeper. It's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

Explain.

[Front Ranger]

I suppose, although until 48 hours out or so this event did seem to have more of a bite to the initial cold advection. It's definitely a hallmark of our state of affairs, though. Erring on the side of slower and more moderate is almost always the way to go.

 

See my edit above. People often want to judge an air mass by the first day or two, when in reality the surface temps often see peak cold later in the event.

[Kayla]

Either that moisture is moving north faster or it's moving further north.

[Deweydog]

See my edit above. People often want to judge an air mass by the first day or two, when in reality the surface temps often see peak cold later in the event.

Yes, and I think most people "warmed" to that idea as the weekend wore on. Most of our coldest weather is manifested from the ground up, not the other way around.

[Gradient Keeper]

Either that moisture is moving north faster or it's moving further north.

Both

[Front Ranger]

Yes, and I think most people "warmed" to that idea as the weekend wore on. Most of our coldest weather is manifested from the ground up, not the other way around.

 

Sure. But there were still some posters seemingly shocked and mystified by those mid 30s temps the first couple days.

 

Anyhow, even though the models watered this down considerably in the final home stretch, it will still end up as a pretty darn cold week most places. Helps to get the first real extended stretch of mostly clear, cold weather with suppressed jet that January has seen for quite awhile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm warning now for Medford and Grants Pass. 4-8" of snow expected. 

[Deweydog]

Sure. But there were still some posters seemingly shocked and mystified by those mid 30s temps the first couple days.

 

Anyhow, even though the models watered this down considerably in the final home stretch, it will still end up as a pretty darn cold week most places. Helps to get the first real extended stretch of mostly clear, cold weather with suppressed jet that January has seen for quite awhile.

You should have been more steadfast in warning them earlier on. It's irresponsible to leave your expertise and acumen on the sidelines at a time like this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't see any moisture getting north of Albany at this point and even that looks like a huge stretch...

[Front Ranger]

Winter Storm warning now for Medford and Grants Pass. 4-8" of snow expected. 

 

I told my dad to expect 2-4" by tomorrow. Looks like I may have been low.