January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem sounding shows -9.3C at 850mb

[ShawniganLake]

I have a feeling next week will be ours!

Still some cold ensemble members mid month.

[Kayla]

Salem sounding shows -9.3C at 850mb

 

Euro just initialized showing nearly -10c at 850mb now over PDX. Last night it showed -8c for this time. Power of the gorge is a beautiful thing.

[Timmy Supercell]

They actually closed schools in Klamath Falls. That's the first time I've seen them do that in my days here in KF.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still some cold ensemble members mid month.

 

[Kayla]

This is hour 6 of the euro comparing the 00z 850mb temps to the 12z temps. Just another example how much the models continue to struggle with the influence of the gorge.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking forward to all the potential this weekend. Sorry Tim! That was the best image I had of you.

 

[Kayla]

Dewpoint down to 5º now at PDX. Pretty impressive. Going to be cold tonight.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows light snow from Snohomish County northward on Friday.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking forward to all the potential this weekend. 

 

fkLF9.jpg.gif

NANCY...

[luvssnow_spokane]

NANCY...

realistic... And  my name is Shirley.

[Timmy]

Dewpoint down to 5º now at PDX. Pretty impressive. Going to be cold tonight.

made it down to 17 last night before midnight, went up to 21 by 7am with cloud cover.  stupid dry air out there.  even pretty windy at my place (its sheltered well  from east winds)

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF shows light snow from Snohomish County northward on Friday.

Gfs has been steady with that for days up here. Likely a trace-1" type of thing?

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF shows light snow from Snohomish County northward on Friday.  

[TT-SEA]

Gfs has been steady with that for days up here. Likely a trace-1" type of thing?

 

 

Looks like it.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is totally dry for the Seahawks on Saturday evening... precip has been gradually delayed in the last few runs.

 

Precip arrives after midnight and probably starts as rain for most places.

[bainbridgekid]

This is hour 6 of the euro comparing the 00z 850mb temps to the 12z temps. Just another example how much the models continue to struggle with the influence of the gorge.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-04 at 10.02.40 AM.png

Is this comparing hour 6 of the 12z to hour 18 of last night's 00z or just how much 850's have cooled over the last 12 hours? Really cool tool if it's the first one.

 

Doesn't look so much like a struggle to factor in the gorge though. Puget Sound is also several degrees colder.

[Timmy Supercell]

Great, still at my max count of likes. I guess that's punishment for having too much snow.

[Kayla]

Is this comparing hour 6 of the 12z to hour 18 of last night's 00z or just how much 850's have cooled over the last 12 hours? Really cool tool if it's the first one.

 

Doesn't look so much like a struggle to factor in the gorge though. Puget Sound is also several degrees colder.

 

Yes, it's comparing hour 6 of the 12z to hour 18 from last nights 00z. WeatherBell added it a bit ago, great tool.

 

And yeah after I posted that I saw the the Puget Sound is also much colder than what it showed last night. Downsloping winds have been stronger for just about everyone it would seem.

[jakeinthevalley]

SLE up to 35f at 10am.  Realistic shot at the 40's today??

[Blizzard777]

The avatar that dolt has pretty much explains my feelings right now. Missing all the opportunities with this cold air in place. My name is Jim and I am glad to be apart of this weather community. Have enjoyed everyone's knowledge on this forum as well, in fact I've pretty much stopped watching the news for my weather. Very cool for everyone receiving the gift of snow in large quantiles all around the West! Deffinetly been a fun weather pattern for many! My brother who has a place over in La pine had to finally get a snowblower.

 

Currently 30 with light Breeze in Fed Way

 

Jim

[Timmy]

what does the new Euro say for snow this weekend?

[BLI snowman]

I bet precip will become a bigger issue on Saturday for Portland than 850mb temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

what does the new Euro say for snow this weekend?

 

Total snow from Friday evening through Sunday evening...

 

[Dave]

This might be the first event I can remember where the east gorge winds screwed everyone over from Salem north.  One of the main reasons Eugene scored so well is the lack of dry, east moisture eating winds.  

[Kayla]

what does the new Euro say for snow this weekend?

 

1-2" with more on the west side. Definitely an improvement compared to the 00z.

 

[Deweydog]

I bet precip will become a bigger issue on Saturday for Portland than 850mb temperatures.

Definitely a trend toward more of a splitting system.

[Kayla]

I bet precip will become a bigger issue on Saturday for Portland than 850mb temperatures.

 

Starting to look that way isn't it?

[snow maniac]

Doubtful you see anything rest of winter. Your in a very bad area.

Yeah that rain shadow that comes from the NW always kills Me.

[Timmy]

GFS Para looks more bullish than it has.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017010406/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png

[BLI snowman]

Definitely a trend toward more of a splitting system.

 

We just can't win!

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a trend toward more of a splitting system.

 

 

Interestingly... the ECMWF keeps the east wind going all weekend.    No SW wind push.

 

Here is the wind map on Sunday afternoon... looks about the same on Saturday and Sunday.

 

[Timmy]

WRF looks awesome!  if you live in the Gorge...http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017010412/images_d2/or_snow72.120.0000.gif

[Timmy]

Interestingly... the ECMWF keeps the east wind going all weekend.    No SW wind push.

 

Here is the wind map on Sunday afternoon... looks about the same on Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

looks like a decent, prolonged zr event for me...  

[Deweydog]

Just a stupid amount of cold air over Canada by early next week on the Euro.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interestingly... the ECMWF keeps the east wind going all weekend.    No SW wind push.

 

Here is the wind map on Sunday afternoon... looks about the same on Saturday and Sunday.

 

The NWS discussion touched on this but said the air mass would still warm. Hard to imagine with that flow.

[BLI snowman]

WRF looks awesome!  if you live in the Gorge...http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017010412/images_d2/or_snow72.120.0000.gif

 

 

A lot better than it's looked up to this point.

[Timmy]

we have some properties in Redmond, and can't get a D**n snow plow, they are backed up until at least friday...  14" in spots there.

[TT-SEA]

And some lowland snow showing up again on the 12Z ECMWF by late Monday night and Tuesday morning.

 

[TT-SEA]

The NWS discussion touched on this but said the air mass would still warm. Hard to imagine with that flow.

 

 

ECMWF shows that it warms up significantly from Saturday into Monday morning with offshore flow still in place.