January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This first band is not the main show... I will keep repeating that but everyone will still freak in about 2 hours when precip tapers off

[Front Ranger]

From Rush Rd and I-5, just south of Chehalis

 

Approaching train?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Redmond dropped to 24 on the hour, cold air filtering in there, Pendleton down to 22, the dalles 29

[BLI snowman]

We might get buried?

[luvssnow_spokane]

By the time it gets to you, it will turn to rain. 

Nah, it will turn out much better this time. It will dissipate into thin air a mile from his backyard.  lol... Actually, I do not see anything making it up this far of any significance other than a flurry and I think that is asking for a lot. I do think it will stay south of Olympia overall.

 

Have fun Portland!!!!     

[Randyc321]

Approaching train?

Thought it looked like snow

[Goducks09]

Some serious radar echoes moving north thru Salem...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Actually, it looks like it is starting to fall apart and pull off to the South East at about the gates to Olympia.

 

Foiled again.

Most of that is Virga anyway. SO honestly it is not even close to here either way. I hate it when people hype up stuff on here when it is not going to happen. I feel like I am watching KOMO news.

[bainbridgekid]

Things really are looking awfully good for Portland. The radar is lighting up and they have probably 20 more hours of off and on snow. Hard to imagine most areas down there not getting in on that 2-4" range with a few lucky spots getting close to 5-6" in heavier banding.

 

Probably decent snow up to near Chehalis too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm almost nervous the low will go too far north at this point. 

You will be fine!

[FroYoBro]

The snow has actually turned to rain here. 33 degrees. Seems like the upper levels here are still trying to get their act together. (My location) might take a little longer to get accumulations started. 

[HighlandExperience]

Things really are looking awfully good for Portland. The radar is lighting up and they have probably 20 more hours of off and on snow. Hard to imagine most areas down there not getting in on that 2-4" range with a few lucky spots getting close to 5-6" in heavier banding.

 

Probably decent snow up to near Chehalis too.

 

Ya looks like even Olympia might get a good dusting. Perhaps an inch?

[Bryant]

Hope everyone down south enjoys their snow storm! I don't want to hear any complaints when the next round of blocking brings a strong low across Washington, giving all of Puget Sound what they deserve

[Kayla]

00z 3km NAM buries everyone. Keeps the snowfall going into tomorrow night. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Most of that is Virga anyway. SO honestly it is not even close to here either way. I hate it when people hype up stuff on here when it is not going to happen. I feel like I am watching KOMO news.

 

No one is hyping anything. The precip, if it goes as latest models show, will get very close to south sound locations like OLM and south Tacoma. Could end up a bit further north, that's been the trend.

 

That's not hype.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z 3km NAM buries everyone. Keeps the snowfall going into tomorrow night.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 6.25.20 PM.png

That shows over 10" here. I can't imagine.

[Front Ranger]

Really heavy echoes over Salem right now. 

[The Swamp]

No one is hyping anything. The precip, if it goes as latest models show, will get very close to south sound locations like OLM and south Tacoma. Could end up a bit further north, that's been the trend.

 

That's not hype.

 

If I just eyeball the satellite loop, I don't see this happening.  I like your enthusiasm though.  If you are right, I'll be stoked.

[Goducks09]

00z 3km NAM buries everyone. Keeps the snowfall going into tomorrow night. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 6.25.20 PM.png

 

 

Well I'll be darned.  it actually looks like a good 'ol fashioned PDX Metro snow storm!  

[Timmy]

00z 3km NAM buries everyone. Keeps the snowfall going into tomorrow night. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 6.25.20 PM.png

holy balls this shows 20" plus tonight

[Perturbed Member]

00z 3km NAM buries everyone. Keeps the snowfall going into tomorrow night. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 6.25.20 PM.png

 

 

Please let this verify...

 

 

Its amazing how quickly some heavy snow can change the landscape. It took 5 hours with those wimpy precip rates on Saturday to do what this heavy snow did in minutes.

[epiceast]

The further north trend is definitely not helping me/anybody east of cascades. This side of the deformation shield seems to be getting sheared apart as it goes Yakima-Moses Lake-Pullman line.

[Front Ranger]

If I just eyeball the satellite loop, I don't see this happening.  I like your enthusiasm though.  If you are right, I'll be stoked.

 

I think you're reading too much into my comments.

 

My statements about the models are simple fact. Last minute north trend. Happens a lot in these situations. Precip so far has made it further north than modeled earlier today. If precip ends up any further north, OLM and south Tacoma at least stand a good chance at a little snow.

 

Nothing outrageous or bold, or even all that enthusiastic. 

[epiceast]

I think you're reading too much into my comments.

 

My statements about the models are simple fact. Last minute north trend. Happens a lot in these situations. Precip so far has made it further north than modeled earlier today. If precip ends up any further north, OLM and south Tacoma at least stand a good chance at a little snow.

 

Nothing outrageous or bold, or even all that enthusiastic. 

The best part of radar signature of PDX is that the northern part of the dz is moving slower than the showers south of it (Salem area). 

[Bryant]

Snowing nicely just south of my buddies place in Vancouver

 

http://i.imgur.com/MbFgpIg.jpg

[Jesse]

Snowing nicely just south of my buddies place in Vancouver

 

http://i.imgur.com/MbFgpIg.jpg

Awe. I didn't know we were buddies.

[HighlandExperience]

And just for fun...RGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017011012/rgem_asnow_nwus_12.png

Any chance the morning GEM was right?

 

#graspingforstraws

[Skagit Weather]

It will be interesting to compare snow totals for this decade between west side stations after this storm finishes. Obviously there is more of winter to go, but what are the totals for at least SEA and PDX (and maybe BLI and EUG) since 2010?

[Bryant]

Awe. I didn't know we were buddies.

Forum buddies for life! Where abouts in Vancouver you live?

[Blizzard777]

I'm happy monitoring and will enjoy my dry north wind. Picking one of my brothers up tonight at Seatac too. Then he need to drive down south tonight . Fun for him

Not biting on the carrot being wiggled in front of my face....must remain calm

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think you're reading too much into my comments.

 

My statements about the models are simple fact. Last minute north trend. Happens a lot in these situations. Precip so far has made it further north than modeled earlier today. If precip ends up any further north, OLM and south Tacoma at least stand a good chance at a little snow.

 

Nothing outrageous or bold, or even all that enthusiastic.

Amen!

[Goducks09]

Holy crap.  Radar says: INCOMING!!!

[Front Ranger]

Final predictions for this event:

 

SLE: 2"

PDX: 3.5" (4-7" common for much of Portland)

Chehalis: 3-4"

OLM: 1-2"

Tacoma: Tr north - .5" south

Puyallup: Tr-.2"

 

Scappoose: 10"

[Jesse]

Forum buddies for life! Where abouts in Vancouver you live?

I'm close to the intersection of 164th and 1st in east Vancouver.

[MikeInEverett]

screw this

[Deweydog]

I'm close to the intersection of 164th and 1st in east Vancouver.

We just drove through that intersection like 25 minutes ago.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, SE Portland is about to get obliterated.

[FroYoBro]

It is raining really hard right now. How interesting/disappointing. I'm missing out on some really heavy snow. 

 

 

 

Why would it go from sleet to snow to rain? Aren't the upper levels cooling down tonight? 

[The Swamp]

Final predictions for this event:

 

SLE: 2"

PDX: 3.5" (4-7" common for much of Portland)

Chehalis: 3-4"

OLM: 1-2"

Tacoma: Tr north - .5" south

Puyallup: Tr-.2"

 

Scappoose: 10"

 

Is that really .20" for Puyallup?  I've seen frost thicker than that.

[Bryant]

I'm close to the intersection of 164th and 1st in east Vancouver.

Gotcha. My old roommate lives off NE 74th St in Vancouver. I don't know the area at all honestly, and he asked me how much I think he'll get. No idea what to tell him lol. Best of luck down there!