January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Very frustrating. Lots can change in 3 days though.

 

It will trend north! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Things are starting to look good. After hour 84, there is more snow coming.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017013000/084/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

540 line all the way down by Eugene.

[HighlandExperience]

It will trend north!

yes!

[MossMan]

Wasn't it just like 3 or 4 days ago the models were showing 20+" for parts of the Puget Sound...just like it showed at one point before the first part of January event...so comical how similar things have evolved this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00zzzzz

[luvssnow_spokane]

It will trend north!

No

[ShawniganLake]

Wasn't it just like 3 or 4 days ago the models were showing 20+" for parts of the Puget Sound...just like it showed at one point before the first part of January event...so comical how similar things have evolved this winter.

48 hrs ago the 0z showed 2-3+ feet for parts of southern Vancouver island. Looks totally dry now. Comical really.

[HighlandExperience]

48 hrs ago the 0z showed 2-3+ feet for parts of southern Vancouver island. Looks totally dry now. Comical really.

 

0z looks different than the NAM. Not seeing the deformation band now. 

[Perturbed Member]

Deformation band continues to look much more anemic on the GFS as compared with the NAM. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_13.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very frustrating. Lots can change in 3 days though.

True.. but not for the better.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well at least it's looking like it will be over in a hurry; no extended outflow winds/low dewpoints. The models are converging on an event that brings the colder air in on Tuesday and has the almost moisture-less low racing to the north by Friday, leaving a limited window for low level cold to arrive/establish. Thursday evening is probably the best shot at a widespread overrunning snow if it turns out juicier than forecast. It's still 33F in Prince George and 39F in Kamloops; this has a long way to go and as is usually the case I wouldn't be surprised if the low level cold gets hung up in terrain. Can't say I'll be sad if the cold air struggles to arrive this time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013000/gfs_T850_nwus_17.png

[Heavy Snow]

00z UKMET shows some light moisture on Wednesday. Then the pattern gets interesting days 5 and 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Frozen Snake River today

 

 

Cap Cloud on Mt. Hood

 

 

The rugged Mtns of Central Idaho

 

[MossMan]

I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989.

 

Tonights CFS was very tasty for the month of March. 

[MossMan]

Tonights CFS was very tasty for the month of March.

I wouldn't mind a cold and snowy March...one can hope.

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't mind a cold and snowy March...one can hope.

I suppose the next window of opportunity could be different due to changing wavelengths and whatnot. I think we will have one more shot to get it right.

[snow_wizard]

I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989.

I would love to see a spring featuring cool / dry weather and lot of frosty nights. Those can be enjoyable.

[epiceast]

GEM is still twice as strong as GFS in precip amounts.

[HighlandExperience]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989.

 

We still might eke out a overrun event sometime Thursday evening ~ Friday. It's starting to look like the BC lower mainland might be a winner again with that one.

[snow_wizard]

00z UKMET shows some light moisture on Wednesday. Then the pattern gets interesting days 5 and 6.

 

I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame.

[Jesse]

I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame.

 

Yup, I have been watching that period as well. On many runs it looks like we are about to get a "reload" but then it digs way too far west and undercuts the block. Glad to see at least one run showing it moving south instead.

[ShawniganLake]

I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame.

Euro trying to go this way day 5/6.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Euro trying to go this way day 5/6.

 

It started picking up on something like that in last night's run. It also looks warmer than the GFS and probably a bit better for an overrunning event Thursday~Friday.

[TT-SEA]

It started picking up on something like that in last night's run. It also looks warmer than the GFS and probably a bit better for an overrunning event Thursday~Friday.

 

 

ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick.    Next weekend looks very wet.  

 

Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries.

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick. Next weekend looks very wet.

 

Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries.

You mind posting the map?

[TT-SEA]

You mind posting the map?

 

Lowland stuff appears to happen early Friday morning.

 

[epiceast]

Lowland stuff appears to happen early Friday morning.

 

 

 

untitled.png

Looking a little stronger(24 hour difference, but whatever).

[VancouverIslandSouth]

ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick.    Next weekend looks very wet.  

 

Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries.

 

 

Still much better than anything the GFS has been showing for northern areas, a quick transition isn't necessarily a bad thing as far as widespread snow goes. I'd trust its totals more with an overrunning event like this where it's throwing moisture over cool dry air more than a more marginal or Arctic front situation where microclimates dominate.

[HighlandExperience]

Still much better than anything the GFS has been showing for northern areas, a quick transition isn't necessarily a bad thing as far as widespread snow goes. I'd trust its totals more with an overrunning event like this where it's throwing moisture over cool dry air more than a more marginal or Arctic front situation where microclimates dominate.

Ditto. I'll take this over what this mornings run of the GFS showed.

[TT-SEA]

Watching the morning news shows... reporters outside the White House in a winter wonderland.  

 

Forecast shows 48 there tomorrow so it will not last long.  

[Phil]

Watching the morning news shows... reporters outside the White House in a winter wonderland.

 

Forecast shows 48 there tomorrow so it will not last long.

Hopefully just an appetizer for the weekend snowstorm. If Trump can make winter great again then I'm all for him.

[Phil]

Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521

[MossMan]

Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521

Puget Sound snow?

[Phil]

Puget Sound snow?

Depends on how fast it can downwell, and how quickly tropical convection responds. March maybe?

[MossMan]

Depends on how fast it can downwell, and how quickly tropical convection responds. March maybe?

Come on March 1989! Or that other year way back before I was born! 

[Heavy Snow]

12z GFS shows snow/ice for PDX Metro on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

[Timmy]

Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521

Oh philbert

[stuffradio]

It looks pretty warm on the ~10th.