January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

There has been some blowing and drifting here, so took a few measurements. Seems like 8"-10" is the rule.

 

From what I can tell places to the west have gotten more (some minor dryslotting here) but I will take it!

Right about 8 inches here. Very disappointing.

[BLI snowman]

Nice!

 

I am thinking the low level cold is really going to build in the next couple of days, that weak system moving by to the north over the weekend probably won't be enough to scour it out. Probably well below normal through Monday.

If PDX is ever going to hit single digits again, Thursday night is their chance.

[wx_statman]

Nice! 

 

I am thinking the low level cold is really going to build in the next couple of days, that weak system moving by to the north over the weekend probably won't be enough to scour it out. Probably well below normal through Monday.

 

I'm curious to see what the lows will be over the next few nights.

[Timmy Supercell]

Didn't turn to snow here at 1600' near Silver Falls until after midnight. By then precip was on the wane. 

 

Similar story here. We had a blip of snow and then there was no precip anymore. We were expected to have another couple inches.

[wx_statman]

NWS just tweeted 7.9" @ Parkrose office

[Jesse]

Our covered moorage collapsed and almost killed me I had to get rescued off the work barge that was partially sunk. Screw snow.

Glad to hear you are ok.

[ShawniganLake]

Well I predicted 2-4" for PDX and look what happened!

 

Seriously though I do think Seattle is next in about 10-14 days. Think about it, Eugene, Medford, Salem, and PDX have all had major snow events with at least 4-5" plus and we are talking 4 separate events!

 

Salem 12-14

Medford 1-4

Eugene 1-7

PDX 1-10/11

 

I can't imagine Seattle doesn't get nailed.

 

And if they do, and we reset to cold conditions after a brief warm up next week, this could go down as a top tier January....

I like your thinking. Hard to imagine northern parts are done with snow for the season. I wonder if there are many years where PDX is snowier than Bellingham on the season. They have got to be well ahead now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Long range GFS!

 

 

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[Guest Dome Buster]

Close to a foot here in Beaverton/Tanasbourne. No exact measurement but that last squall that came through had to have dumped another 3". Heck of a storm.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Right about 8 inches here. Very disappointing.

I am sad for you. I hope you do better next time! 

[Guest Dome Buster]

How much did the Milwaukie/Gladstone dome end up with?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much all of Western Oregon is going to close the first half of the month with at least -8 to -10 departures...Even if the 2nd half of the month is average it should still be the coldest January in a couple decades. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much did the Milwaukie/Gladstone dome end up with?

 

How much did the Milwaukie/Gladstone dome end up with?

 

Getting reports of about 6-8" in the dome. 

 

7.9" officially at the NWS office. 

 

NWS going with lows of 20 and 21 at PDX the next couple nights...Highs 30-31 through Friday.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Getting reports of about 6-8" in the dome. 

 

7.9" officially at the NWS office. 

 

NWS going with lows of 20 and 21 at PDX the next couple nights...Highs 30-31 through Friday.

Not bad. Don't know if that qualifies as it being busted but at least they got some . I work in Gladstone so I know all too well the power of the dome.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Right about 8 inches here. Very disappointing.

Do you have the time to listen to me whine

About nothing and everything all at once

I am one of those

Melodramatic fools

Neurotic to the bone

No doubt about it

[Timmy Supercell]

Getting reports of about 6-8" in the dome. 

 

7.9" officially at the NWS office. 

 

NWS going with lows of 20 and 21 at PDX the next couple nights...Highs 30-31 through Friday.

 

That's almost as much as Medford officially had on Jan 3rd. They got 8.30" (but that was before midnight, all same day snow.)

[umadbro]

4 snow events. 2 in 2017 alone! I'm grading this winter an A+

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's almost as much as Medford officially had on Jan 3rd. They got 8.30" (but that was before midnight, all same day snow.)

 

Yeah. Most people said Medford got 10-14" most areas...Kind of like this storm. The official office is in the worst place for snow...Well that and most people tend to exaggerate or just eyeball and guess their snow totals. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 snow events. 2 in 2017 alone! I'm grading this winter an A+

 

For the 21st Century it has a chance to pass 2008-09 for the best...Regionally if Seattle gets hit and we get one real arctic blast even if its dry I will say its the best winter since at least 92-93... As is...Potential to be more. Still a lot of time left. 

 

It has an "old time" winter feel. The record wet October, record warm November, then boom. The progression Jim talked about worked out this time. Just hope he can score some snow so he can appreciate it. I could see being bitter if you lived in the Seattle area. That is why I hope they get hit, so we can appreciate this winter for what it will be. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah. Most people said Medford got 10-14" most areas...Kind of like this storm. The official office is in the worst place for snow...Well that and most people tend to exaggerate or just eyeball and guess their snow totals. 

 

It's possible some cities had fluctuating micro measurements. When I measured 12.40" at midnight people near OIT were coming up with 14-16" before it continued snowing another 6+ inches in the morning. Someone actually said 14" here at 9pm when I had measured 10" at that time.

[jakeinthevalley]

2.5" in West Salem last night. Changed over to rain for about 2 hours and then back to snow for about 30 minutes before the shield moved off. About 5" in McMinnville this morning.

[Tyler Mode]

These photos are from my parents house in Minnehahah area of Vancouver.  11", biggest single storm snow in my 34 years.  I've had more snow on the ground (2008) but no more than 8" from one storm.

 

Here in Battle Ground, 7", 30 degrees now.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

La Nina at its best.  Storms marching into Northern Cal and Southern Oregon, one after another--all the while teasing the Puget Sound with endless hours of Virga.

 

For those keeping track, even Boise has been getting in on the action.  They are still digging out of a foot of snow from a couple of days ago, which is almost unheard of there.

[Bryant]

Right about 8 inches here. Very disappointing.

Lol

[bainbridgekid]

Nice thing for Portland is models keep pushing back the wet warmup.

 

A few days ago it looked like it could be raining by Saturday. 12z GFS is totally dry through Monday afternoon.

 

That snow is going to be there for quite a while.

[TT-SEA]

La Nina at its best.  Storms marching into Northern Cal and Southern Oregon, one after another--all the while teasing the Puget Sound with endless hours of Virga.

 

For those keeping track, even Boise has been getting in on the action.  They are still digging out of a foot of snow from a couple of days ago, which is almost unheard of there.

 

 

ENSO Neutral actually. 

[Bryant]

ENSO Neutral actually.

Looking at forcing and the way the atmosphere has behaved, it has acted much more like a La Ninã. It's not a strong Ninã like Phil forced you to think by twisting your arm, but it's close

[TT-SEA]

Looking at forcing and the way the atmosphere has behaved, it has acted much more like a La Ninã. It's not a strong Ninã like Phil forced you to think by twisting your arm, but it's close

 

 

I don't know how forcing works... but I know that ENSO neutral typically has lots of blocking and ends up being nice here without endless rain like this winter is progressing so far.

[Timmy Supercell]

La Nina at its best.  Storms marching into Northern Cal and Southern Oregon, one after another--all the while teasing the Puget Sound with endless hours of Virga.

 

For those keeping track, even Boise has been getting in on the action.  They are still digging out of a foot of snow from a couple of days ago, which is almost unheard of there.

 

What does Boise average in a whole winter?

[Tyler Mode]

These are pics from my cousin in Salmon Creek.  Heavy snow bringing down trees.  It continues to snow moderately here.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX hanging tough at 28. I think they score a sub freezing high today. 

[chinook]

I can confirm McMinnville @ 5".  Awesome out there.  Sun peaking through with snow falling from tree branches.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just need some cold air to work with.

[Tyler Mode]

I find it interesting how hard it is to get snow here, yet now I'm going on 17 hours of continuous snow.

 

31 degrees

[ShawniganLake]

For the 21st Century it has a chance to pass 2008-09 for the best...Regionally if Seattle gets hit and we get one real arctic blast even if its dry I will say its the best winter since at least 92-93... As is...Potential to be more. Still a lot of time left.

 

It has an "old time" winter feel. The record wet October, record warm November, then boom. The progression Jim talked about worked out this time. Just hope he can score some snow so he can appreciate it. I could see being bitter if you lived in the Seattle area. That is why I hope they get hit, so we can appreciate this winter for what it will be.

I think you would need everyone from the Seattle area and north to get hit pretty substantially to surpass 2008-09. ( with the exception of the higher elevations of the Vancouver area).

Snow totals so far this winter.

YVR 11" ( 0" in January)

YYJ. 6". (Trace in January)

YXX. 20" (1.5" in January)

 

Shawnigan lake is still 57" behind the 2008-2009 winter season.

[Jesse]

I find it interesting how hard it is to get snow here, yet now I'm going on 17 hours of continuous snow.

 

31 degrees

It's been unbelievable. Looks like the main band has shifted north of here for the time being. Maybe it will rotate back south later...

[Tyler Mode]

It's been unbelievable. Looks like the main bad has shifted north of here for the time being. Maybe it will rotate back south later...

Sitting right over me but still moving north.  Was hoping my house would be the pivot point and it can dump for a few more hours haha.

[ShawniganLake]

Some awesome pictures coming in. Fun to scroll through.

[Jesse]

I can't believe the long range models are hinting at the cold coming back.

 

The 12z GFS gives us a 3-4 day warmup with heavy rain next week (flooding?) then right back to a cold pattern by the 20th or so.

 

That progression actually feels believable based on how this winter has gone so far. Really pulling for the Puget Sound region to score late in the month.

[Jesse]

Looking like we stay dry though at least early next week now. It has already been mentioned but I think we could see some pretty impressive low level cold building this week with a snow covered Basin, Gorge and now Portland metro. The source airmass is verifying pretty cold too with widespread 850s of -10 to -15C in the lower Columbia Basin.

 

This is a sort of setup I have dreamed about living through.