January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow up to 45 at EUG!

[Brennan]

You might have to make a drive up this way... Brennan, come on over as well! Would be a nice reunion

Ice is forming on north whatcom again should be thicker than the first round laat week by the wns of this week. We could probably have a bon fire and go ice fishing on Lake Geneva by now its been frozen for over a month now

[Brennan]

Yes. January 1950 produced 57" at SEA and 41" at PDX

BLI was "dry" that winter and still had 31" in January. I'd have to assume other areas around Whatcom county had 40-50" though. BLI always seems to be trailing somebody. When the cold is shallow there is always more snow to the North and East and when the pool is deep East and south score better

[Timmy Supercell]

BLI was "dry" that winter and still had 31" in January. I'd have to assume other areas around Whatcom county had 40-50" though. BLI always seems to be trailing somebody. When the cold is shallow there is always more snow to the North and East and when the pool is deep East and south score better

 

Same in K-Falls too.

 

Oct 1949 - 0.00"

Nov 1949 - 1.50"

Dec 1949 - 10.00"

Jan 1950 - 56.50"

Feb 1950 - 3.00"

Mar 1950 - 0.00"

Apr 1950 - 2.00"

[OSUBeaver]

Long time lurker...actually had accounts on the two previous western weather sites, but didn't bother to move to this site until last night. But I've been reading regularly regardless.  I created the account last night so that I could see people's attachments (and to give the Beavers some representation).
 
I got a 10 inches of snow last night. Just took this picture that I wanted to share:

 

Pretty cool how elastic this snow is. The peak closest to me about 8.5 inches tall.

[ShawniganLake]

Same in K-Falls too.

 

Oct 1949 - 0.00"

Nov 1949 - 1.50"

Dec 1949 - 10.00"

Jan 1950 - 56.50"

Feb 1950 - 3.00"

Mar 1950 - 0.00"

Apr 1950 - 2.00"

Shawnigan Lake

Dec 1949 - 18"

Jan 1950. - 65"

Feb 1950 - 10"

Mar 1950 - 5"

[epiceast]

http://i.imgur.com/QW8Y5gN.jpg

 

This is what Missoula looks like today. Not very different from PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought the snow storm in Portland might make some national news headlines, but I haven't found anything on any of the sites I looked at. Just massive panic about some Orange haired dudes press conference.

[wx_statman]

BLI was "dry" that winter and still had 31" in January. I'd have to assume other areas around Whatcom county had 40-50" though. BLI always seems to be trailing somebody. When the cold is shallow there is always more snow to the North and East and when the pool is deep East and south score better

 

I wonder if that low total can be attributed (at least partially) to difficulty in measuring. They had some seriously strong Fraser outflow that month. Like on 1/13 when BLI had something like 58-59 mph sustained wind with snow falling. I don't know how you'd get an accurate snowfall measurement in those conditions. This was during the storm that brought 20" to SEA.

[Heavy Snow]

[wx_statman]

Wow up to 45 at EUG!

 

Shades of Dec '08

[Brennan]

I wonder if that low total can be attributed (at least partially) to difficulty in measuring. They had some seriously strong Fraser outflow that month. Like on 1/13 when BLI had something like 58-59 mph sustained wind with snow falling. I don't know how you'd get an accurate snowfall measurement in those conditions. This was during the storm that brought 20" to SEA.

That is possible I suppose but I think for the most part they were just too far north to experience the extreme snowfall totals recorded in the central puget sound that winter.

 

I bet Mossman would have had 70+" in Jan 1950

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was snowing here for about 30 minutes at my office in Salem. The 18z NAM puts a line of 1-2" of snow from about Corvallis up through Salem this evening. We'll see...

[Timmy Supercell]

Nobody outside of the PNW pays much attention to Portland, honestly. Even Seattle doesn't get much attention when compared to (insert any east coast town here). 

 

I like it though - makes it feel like we are in our own little world out here. Both for good, and bad.

 

Portland? You mean in Maine? 

 

Oh, THAT Portland  <_>

They get snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shades of Dec '08

 

Looks like the dividing line is somewhere just south of Corvallis. 37 at CVO with light ENE wind, 45 at EUG with SSW wind. 

[Bryant]

I'll put this out there: After the pattern resets and we get back to cool/cold weather in a week or two, I expect everyone in and around PDX to focus all their energy, thoughts, and prayers towards the Puget Sound region.

 

Maybe if we get enough people doing snow dances the weather gods will forgive Seattle for whatever it is that we did to upset them.

This year has a permanent middle finger for the puget sound region. Hate to say it, won't be surprised at all if PDX/Vancouver scores more snow later on while the north gets shafted

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like an 8-12" storm for most of Portland. Awesome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point Portland looks to stay dry until early Tuesday...At which point it should be to warm for anything but a brief overrunning event...If that.

[jakeinthevalley]

Snowing again in McMinnville, relatively heavy

[BLI snowman]

I'll put this out there: After the pattern resets and we get back to cool/cold weather in a week or two, I expect everyone in and around PDX to focus all their energy, thoughts, and prayers towards the Puget Sound region.

 

Maybe if we get enough people doing snow dances the weather gods will forgive Seattle for whatever it is that we did to upset them.

I'm confident we get another regional opportunity in late January. Would love to see a more traditional regional snow pattern, they have been few and far between this decade.

[James Jones]

At this point Portland looks to stay dry until early Tuesday...At which point it should be to warm for anything but a brief overrunning event...If that.

 

Yeah, I'm really concerned about the potential for a quick overrunning event a week from now when I have 10" of snow on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I'm really concerned about the potential for a quick overrunning event a week from now when I have 10" of snow on the ground.

What you should be concerned about the potential for an AR event next Tuesday/Wednesday. There could be a lot of urban and small stream flooding as snow levels shoot up over 6k feet with heavy rain.

[Skagit Weather]

Pretty entertaining to see this coming from Scott Sistek. Just in case you thought the Puget Sound snow lovers on this forum were the only people who had cracked from a lack of snow. I've never seen the weenie come out in him as much as in this blog post.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/tale-of-the-tape-portland-gets-winter-of-the-ages-seattle-gets-winter-of-snow-fans-rage

[MossMan]

Currently partly cloudy and 27...quite the cold airmass this is...if I had snowcover I would be in the low 20's right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feels like one of those nights where temps won't drop much because of residual low clouds

[ShawniganLake]

[Skagit Weather]

Currently partly cloudy and 27...quite the cold airmass this is...if I had snowcover I would be in the low 20's right now.

 

That's crazy! It made it up to 36F here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Why? Portland gets winter of the ages; Seattle gets winter of snow fans' rages

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/tale-of-the-tape-portland-gets-winter-of-the-ages-seattle-gets-winter-of-snow-fans-rage

[Prairiedog]

Not often that we have as much or more snow on the ground than Winthrop albeit they are only 9f right now and about 1' of their 1.5' has been on the ground for a couple weeks (well not quite 1.5' but close).  Still not going to see that very often!

[Perturbed Member]

Been snowing here for the last 40 minutes again, surprisingly good precip rates at times even though the radar doesn't look all that impressive. 

[Brennan]

18z shows STORM KING around hour 252... 967mb low hitting NW Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to get a strong signal for below average temperatures January 20-25th.

[Brennan]

I'm confident we get another regional opportunity in late January. Would love to see a more traditional regional snow pattern, they have been few and far between this decade.

Why?

[MossMan]

18z shows STORM KING around hour 252... 967mb low hitting NW Oregon.

This one better NOT TREND SOUTH!

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to get a strong signal for below average temperatures January 20-25th.

Gonna be tough to go arctic with that strong vortex up near Alaska. Cold onshore flow?

[Jesse]

Snowing here again at a pretty good clip. First since 11am or so. Could pick up another 1/2" or so if it keeps up.

[BLI snowman]

Why?

Been the overwhelming theme so far and with no strong warm ENSO signal, a midwinter flip to the opposite seems unlikely. At the very least late January contains a good troughing signal.

[Brennan]

Been the overwhelming theme so far and with no strong warm ENSO signal, a midwinter flip to the opposite seems unlikely. At the very least late January contains a good troughing signal.

It has been the overwhelming theme in other winters as well, many of them seemingly millions of years ago... but when a 4 week period of cold weather is through here, it rarely comes back. . . Name a winter...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been the overwhelming theme in other winters as well, many of them seemingly millions of years ago... but when a 4 week period of cold weather is through here, it rarely comes back. . . Name a winter...

 

92-93

 

55-56

 

68-69

 

70-71

[BLI snowman]

It has been the overwhelming theme in other winters as well, many of them seemingly millions of years ago... but when a 4 week period of cold weather is through here, it rarely comes back. . . Name a winter...

Every winter has its thaws, including 1949-50. A week of moderation would be nothing unprecedented.

 

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that at least the Portland area has now seen the peak of its winter. Doesn't mean there isn't a reasonably favorable chance we see another regional winter weather opportunity the rest of the way.