January 24th/25th Possible Winter Storm Probable Nebraska Screwjob

[james1976]

I think they may be a bit over-exaggerated but 10"+ is on the table if meso scale banding sets up over your house.

Yeah im not expecting those totals but feeling more confident about a heavy snow event. Just glad its staying on the more southerly route.

[james1976]

This thing is way dynamic. Kinda springlike. Whoever gets under that convection is gonna get blasted.

[Tom]

The LRC is such a good tool for long term forecasting.  Today's storm is 57-58 days out from the LRC cycle 1 storm back on Nov 28-30th.  Look how close the 500mb pattern is compared to tomorrow's map...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170124170353.gif

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_6.png

[Tom]

12z Euro pretty much holding steady in terms of track...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012412/ecmwf_T850_us_2.png

[gosaints]

Track seems to be pretty well locked in.  Now just comes to watching where the best banding and thermals set up in relation to the track

[gosaints]

Latest RAP

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017012417/020/snku_acc.conus.png

[ToastedRavs]

Euro gives me a little less qpf than the 0z from last night. Hate riding the line. Just 30 miles north and I'd be golden.

[jaster220]

00z Euro caving to the GFS...sadly...

 

Still true??

 

OMA and DSM snow domes in full effect.

 

graphic.aspx.png

 

Pretty good that range I'd say. Just feels like we've been tracking this thing for twice as long.

[Guest Snowball]

Need this thing 100 miles south. Only 1 poster in northeast Nebraska. Gabel good luck! My parents just north of you in Newman Grove.

[gabel23]

Need this thing 100 miles south. Only 1 poster in northeast Nebraska. Gabel good luck! My parents just north of you in Newman Grove.

Thanks snowball, I'm right on the line of seeing nothing much to possibly warning type snows. Your parents will be good, they should see a good 6+ I would think! 

[james1976]

That RAP only goes til 7am tomorrow?

[gosaints]

8 am.. 21 hour model

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017012417/021/snku_acc.conus.png

[gabel23]

Anybody have the EURO snow map please? Thanks! 

[WBadgersW]

18z NAM has a lot more moisture for E WI

[Madtown]

How bout the Temps badgers?

[WBadgersW]

How bout the Temps badgers?

A bit colder than 12z, but still iffy. Unfortunately Madison seems to be in between two bands.

[Madtown]

[WBadgersW]

Will see. Going to be a nowcast event for sure

[Tom]

Latest HRRR says MSN is safe...still snowing..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017012419/hrrr_asnow_ncus_18.png

[Tom]

18z 4km NAM...saying northern burbs of Chicago may get some wet snow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017012418/nam4km_asnow_ncus_16.png

[Tony]

^Above map shows us getting some flakes so it must be terribly wrong...toss it.

[james1976]

RGEM and GGEM definitely on their own.

[Tom]

RGEM and GGEM definitely on their own.

You seeing snow yet?

[james1976]

You seeing snow yet?

Nope. Getting crushed on radar. Must be dry air again.

[james1976]

Finally got a few flakes now.

[Snowlover76]

Only got up to 33/34 today

[hlcater]

HRRR has virtually no rain. Only snow and dry air to the south. 

 

 http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017012420/010/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

we're even getting pretty close to the 6" line here in Omaha on the RGEM. My parents are in Yankton, SD right on the river with Nebraska and they're expecting 14" with localized areas of 18" I about drove up there this morning to experience a true snowstorm for the first time in a LONG time!

 

Zero excuses NOT to chase, especially to a parent's place. You best reply that you just had surgery or something!

[jaster220]

18z 4km NAM...saying northern burbs of Chicago may get some wet snow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017012418/nam4km_asnow_ncus_16.png

^Above map shows us getting some flakes so it must be terribly wrong...toss it.

 

Futility Spoiler Alert!!

[Andrew NE]

Parts of NW and NC Nebraska have already recieved over a foot of snow!

[Tony]

Futility Spoiler Alert!!

 

18z 4km NAM...saying northern burbs of Chicago may get some wet snow...

 

 

No chance of this happening, only rain and maybe couple flakes flying.

[NEJeremy]

[VMB443]

Weather Underground is significantly bumping up our totals here in MKE - interesting to see if this is one of those unexpectedly over performing storms.

[WBadgersW]

Weather Underground is significantly bumping up our totals here in MKE - interesting to see if this is one of those unexpectedly over performing storms.

They have me with 5-11". Now that's full weenie. I wouldnt be surprised if we see some 6+" totals if thermals work out.

[NEJeremy]

I don't know if we're going to see anything here. Everything's north

[VMB443]

They have me with 5-11". Now that's full weenie. I wouldnt be surprised if we see some 6+" totals if thermals work out.

Germantown? I'm about twenty miles due south, I'm hoping your forecast is correct and ours is underestimating - they have us at 7". I'll take anything which is white and falling from the sky at this point!

[Bryan1117]

I don't know if we're going to see anything here. Everything's north

Our only hope is if we can get anything to backfill behind the low tonight or tomorrow morning. Local mets still calling for 1-3 inches of snow, however I could see this easily being just a dusting to 1 inch type of system. 

 

I made it back to Omaha about an hour or so ago, when I left Sioux City around lunch time it was absolutely dumping on them there as that main band moved through - they picked up a quick inch and a half to two inches of snow within an hour. I was actually amazed that the band moved right on through though, and by the time I had driven I-29 about 25 miles south to near Onawa, Iowa, there was very little actual snow falling and there was just a dusting on the ground. About five miles south of Onawa the landscape returned to the brown and dead grass fields that we have known all too well around here this winter. It was nice to see the snow up in Sioux City, however it was more depressing coming back home where I knew we wouldn't have any snow on the ground once again. 

[NEJeremy]

Anyone out in central Nebraska see anything today?

[james1976]

1.8" so far

[Madtown]

5-8" here... another I'll believe when I see scenarios