February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Trainwreck]

Classic Dewey. See ya on the fourth!! July?

[TT-SEA]

For those scoring at home... the new 00Z GFS MOS for SEA:

 

Sat   47/40

Sun   46/39

Mon   41/34

 

 

Ignore and discount the GFS MOS in this situation if you would like... but it will likely be close.   Its a great supporting tool.    If this was the real deal for Seattle then it would not be that warm... and I report what it shows good or bad.  
 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF alert...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow48.60.0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Ended up with about 1.5" of snow on the ground here, but it looks like the band has slid just to the north. If some of the models are to be believed this might be all we get for this event.

Tapered off here too. 7.3"

[TT-SEA]

Tapered off here too. 7.3"

 

 

Wow!!   

 

That is amazing.  

 

Sleet and snow here and still only 30.3 degrees.. but only a couple inches total for the day.   Getting concerned about freezing rain and wish it would warm up because snow is impossible tomorrow.  

[BLI snowman]

Interesting that the WRF and RPM are much more aggressive than the GFS for cooling us down. Wonder if it's a resolution issue. Those two models do rely heavily on the GFS.

 

Definitely a situation that's reliant on those southerly gradients backing off completely. Resolution issues could be a factor, but the operational usually isn't off by too much.

[Front Ranger]

For those scoring at home... the new 00Z GFS MOS for SEA:

 

Sat   47/40

Sun   46/39

Mon   41/34

 

 

Ignore and discount the GFS MOS in this situation if you would like... but it will likely be close.   Its a great supporting tool.    If this was the real deal for Seattle then it would not be that warm... and I report what it shows good or bad.  

 

 

You should really share this info with Seattle NWS.

[TT-SEA]

You should really share this info with Seattle NWS.

 

They have a great track record.   <_>

 

I do not pay attention to the NWS or local news and have no idea why anyone on here does given our in-depth knowledge of the models.  

 

The only exception is Mark Nelsen... but he is one of us!   

[Front Ranger]

They have a great track record.   <_>

 

I do not pay attention to the NWS or local news and have no idea why anyone on here does given our in-depth knowledge of the models.  

 

The only exception is Mark Nelsen... but he is one of us!   

 

Seattle NWS is actually pretty good. They tend to err on the conservative side and not buy into model hype, but that works to their advantage at least 80% of the time.

[TT-SEA]

You should really share this info with Seattle NWS.

 

Just checked... they have this for Seattle:

 

Sat  47/38

Sun 43/38

Mon 38/34

 

Not too far off the GFS MOS actually.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just checked... they have this for Seattle:

 

Sat  47/38

Sun 43/38

Mon 38/34

 

Not too far off the GFS MOS actually.  

 

What is PDX

[Front Ranger]

Just checked... they have this for Seattle:

 

Sat  47/38

Sun 43/38

Mon 38/34

 

Not too far off the GFS MOS actually.  

 

For SEA, the location you gave, they are a degree colder than that for highs both Sun and Mon.

[Jesse]

What is PDX

It's an airport a little south of here.

[TT-SEA]

For SEA, the location you gave, they are a degree colder than that for highs both Sun and Mon.

 

OK Jared.

 

For the runway at SEA:

 

Sat  47/39

Sun 42/38

Mon 37/34

 

Its not like they are running ridiculously below MOS guidance.    

[Deweydog]

What is PDX

48/35

35/8

13/8

[Deweydog]

It's an airport a little south of here.

But that's not important right now.

[TT-SEA]

48/35

35/8

13/8

 

 

Now that is a flash freeze!!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its going to be to warm for seattle proper. Areas above 533 feet and my locatiin could score. Did i mention my location?

[ShawniganLake]

You need outflow coming off the island and wrapping back into the Juan de Fuca, if the low is moving south it can enhance the instability and create a band of convergence over the Strait leading to big snow falls on which ever part of the shoreline it gets caught up on. It's pretty rare because you need an Arctic airmass with onshore flow (too much fetch and it won't align with the Strait or will be too warm, too little fetch and you can't get an organized band of precip). The upper level temperatures aren't as ideal this time around, but it happens so infrequently I'm not sure what sort of thresholds are needed to get it started.

Was that the night of Nov 26th, morning of the 27th in 2006......if you can remember.

That was some insanely intense snowfall at Shawnigan lake with a very sharp cutoff just north of here. Seemed convective in nature. Close to a foot here that night with only about 3" in Duncan (~15miles) away. I was on the late ferry to Duke point that night and the north wind was absolutely howling around midnight. Probably 50mph. One of the roughest ferry trips I've been on, with sea spray hitting the windows.

[luminen]

Tapered off here too. 7.3"

 

Still snowing here...

[Dave]

But that's not important right now.

You ever been in a cockpit before?

[Trainwreck]

48/35

35/8

13/8

Could be a little high Matty

[Jesse]

Could be a little high Matty

 

48 is definitely on the warmer end for tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

You ever been in a cockpit before?

Ever seen a grown man naked?

[Deweydog]

Could be a little high Matty

Blame the faulty algorithm.

[Trainwreck]

Shirley

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ever seen a grown man naked?

you ever watch movies about gladiators?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ever seen a grown man naked?

You ever hang around the gymnasium?

[Dave]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

[MossMan]

You ever hang around the gymnasium?

What's your vector victor

[MossMan]

I will be watching Airplane Sunday night as I get buried in snow.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Was that the night of Nov 26th, morning of the 27th in 2006......if you can remember.

That was some insanely intense snowfall at Shawnigan lake with a very sharp cutoff just north of here. Seemed convective in nature. Close to a foot here that night with only about 3" in Duncan (~15miles) away. I was on the late ferry to Duke point that night and the north wind was absolutely howling around midnight. Probably 50mph. One of the roughest ferry trips I've been on, with sea spray hitting the windows.

 

Yep it was the night of Nov 26th/morning of Nov 27th; I worked at UVic at the time and that's the only time I can remember UVic being closed due to snow. They won't close unless there's more than a foot of snow in the night before they have time to plow. I was visiting my parents up at Nanoose at the time so I wasn't keen on driving down for the Monday and I was pretty happy to hear that.  

 

I don't remember it being predicted at all, and Victoria was largely a mix of rain/snow the weekend before it while other areas like the Lower Mainland and East Vancouver Island got all snow. It was pretty clear something crazy was going on when I checked the radar that evening, there was a narrow intense band of precipitation running down the Juan de Fuca slamming directly into the southern tip of the island; it looked exactly like the snow bands you'd see running up Lake Ontario or Erie. Some parts of the city got over a foot of snow in only a few hours. The next day I remember a weaker similar thing happened up in Nanoose with the cold northwest flow triggering Strait-effect snow down the Strait of Georgia. That was the first time I'd ever seen Strait-effect with N/NW winds, normally it only gets kicked up with E or NE winds and orographic help from the terrain.

[Dave]

I will be watching Airplane Sunday night as I get buried in snow.

It's been a while since I've seen it.  I think I'll watch it tonight while I get buried in 50 degree rain, which is much better than the 33 degree rain that has happened many times this winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is sticking to its guns... certainly not trending south.  

[Dave]

I forgot how much I love 33 degree rain.

It's slightly better than 32 degree rain I suppose.  ZR storms have no redeeming qualities whatsoever.  Including today, there's been 4 freezing rain storms down here this winter.  Only one was a biggun though.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF shows more vertical tilt in the offshore trough, looks good to bring it a little further north, but not quite as far as the run that nailed the Puget Sound. Doesn't look like a bad trend for bringing more snow to the Puget Sound on Sunday night.

[TT-SEA]

Through Monday morning...

 

[HighlandExperience]

Euro buries the swamp