March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Tell that to the lower willamette. Not sure on exact numbers but our marina's lower lot has been flooded for 2 weeks. Definitely the highest the Columbia's been in the 2010's. D**n water needs to go down!

 

 

We need more!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are fortunate we can break all these records without serious widespread flooding.

 

Widespread being the operative word.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This gets PDX VERY close to the record...

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

[Jesse]

Tell that to the lower willamette. Not sure on exact numbers but our marina's lower lot has been flooded for 2 weeks. Definitely the highest the Columbia's been in the 2010's. D**n water needs to go down!

 

Screw snow!

[TT-SEA]

Screw snow!

 

Its a dire situation!  

[BLI snowman]

I will probably go over 10" for the second consecutive month, would have to check the last time that happened around here. And for the first time ever in March. 

[Jesse]

Starting to look like a good bet that the first 5-7 days of April are chilly. We might finally get into a legit troughing pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like a good bet that the first 5-7 days of April are chilly. We might finally get into a legit troughing pattern.

 

It would be nice to have anything but this SW flow.

[Jesse]

It would be nice to have anything but this SW flow.

 

I agree.

[ShawniganLake]

It would be nice to have anything but this SW flow.

I'm hopeful for a few nice days later this week, but then it looks like more of the same. Seasonable temps and wetter than normal.

 

First 5 days of April on the EPS

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Sounds like another 40 to 45 wind storm this week

[epiceast]

http://www.kiro7.com/news/local/dicks-drive-in-to-open-new-location-after-online-voting_/506402516

 

Jim, you might not have scored a lot of snow this winter, but you're getting a bag of ****'s in your neighborhood before Tim is!

[Jesse]

I'm hopeful for a few nice days later this week, but then it looks like more of the same. Seasonable temps and wetter than normal.

 

First 5 days of April on the EPS

 

 

Yes, sadly the 12z Euro runs counter to what I said. Holds more energy out over the Pacific. You could have just responded to my post.

[Jesse]

Really hoping we can get a high building out over the EPAC again sometime soon. That can give us such great weather in the spring. The Pacific looks like November right now with all of the activity out there.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like another 40 to 45 wind storm this week

I doubt we see that many this week.

[Phil]

Really hoping we can get a high building out over the EPAC again sometime soon. That can give us such great weather in the spring. The Pacific looks like November right now with all of the activity out there.

That's not going to happen anytime soon.

 

The cold/dead IO and perpetual +NAO favors a waveguide that places the antecedent trough right on the coast or just offshore, which is a cool/wet pattern in most years according to ESRL reanalysis.

 

The easy way out would be to flip the NAO sometime in May or June, however, a cold IO/weak monsoonal cell almost always precedes NATL cooling and a +NAO circulation, which naturally teleconnects to GOA troughing in the warm season. So, don't hold your breath for a regime change.

[Phil]

What's interesting about this year is we're dealt with the very cold/dead IO, which promotes Pacific convection and a pseudo Niño jet extension regime in the western US (and chilly US summers overall), yet we also have a tight CPAC-WPWP gradient and corresponding modoki niña Walker/Hadley system, which favors NPAC ridging, dry western troughing, and a fat SE ridge.

 

Gonna be one heck of a battle upcoming.

[Jesse]

That's not going to happen anytime soon.

 

The cold/dead IO and perpetual +NAO favors a waveguide that places the antecedent trough right on the coast or just offshore, which is a cool/wet pattern in most years according to ESRL reanalysis.

 

The easy way out would be to flip the NAO sometime in May or June, however, a cold IO/weak monsoonal cell almost always precedes NATL cooling and a +NAO circulation, which naturally teleconnects to GOA troughing in the warm season. So, don't hold your breath for a regime change.

So you're completely backpeddling on your warm season forecast. Nice.

 

Sounds like exactly what we saw in 2014, which according you just a week or so ago was an antilog.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, sadly the 12z Euro runs counter to what I said. Holds more energy out over the Pacific. You could have just responded to my post.

 

Absolutely depressing... we get one decent day on Friday per the 12Z ECMWF before we are plowed under by the jet and copious rain for the rest of the run.   This has gotten pretty ridiculous now.  

[Phil]

So you're completely backpeddling on your warm season forecast. Nice.

 

Sounds like exactly what we saw in 2014, which according you just a week or so ago was an antilog.

Uhh, no. I've always forecasted BC/GOA troughing and cool/wet onshore flow to start the warm season. For whatever reason, you accuse me of "backtracking" every spring. You did the same thing last year around this time.

 

This is nothing like 2014 which was an Aleutian Low/western ridge type pattern.

[Phil]

Prospects for a ridgy summer are even worse than last year if anything. The 2014 pattern was dominant WPAC/+IOD over Indo with equatorward forcing retraction under -QBO, which is a big +PNA/ridge primer. The 2015 pattern was pure Niño/dateline forcing/+PNA supermachine.

 

This year is shifted a good deal east with the IO/Indo cell versus 2014, and is beefier in the EPAC relative to the WPAC/dateline on the whole. So you'll get the extended jet and some NPAC troughing, but any big time ridging will be confined to the AAM downcycles/jet retractions during transitions into -PNA, which terminate quickly via retrogression.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 14.52" of precip on the month. Should break the 15" barrier for the 3rd month this wet season. 

[luminen]

Pretty nice day here today, with a bit of rain in the morning but nothing substantial. Otherwise it was dry. Tomorrow looks downright drenching though with 2" forecast. I could really go for some dry/cool/windy weather...don't really need any rain!

[Jesse]

Uhh, no. I've always forecasted BC/GOA troughing and cool/wet onshore flow to start the warm season. For whatever reason, you accuse me of "backtracking" every spring. You did the same thing last year around this time.

 

This is nothing like 2014 which was an Aleutian Low/western ridge type pattern.

Fair enough. I realize that not all offshore troughing is created equal. Although the tail end of your second post sounds like you are talking about offshore rigging, with big ridges forming and quickly retrograding.

[Phil]

Fair enough. I realize that not all offshore troughing is created equal. Although the tail end of your second post sounds like you are talking about offshore rigging, with big ridges forming and quickly retrograding.

Yeah, it depends on the longitude of the NPAC trough, which is heavily influenced by diabatic heat release from the tropical convection. So, watch closely where the low frequency forcing sets up in May/June.

 

Oh, and I'll be in the Seattle and Vancouver area in late July, so expect a major heatwave around that timeframe.

[luminen]

Yeah, it depends on the longitude of the NPAC trough, which is heavily influenced by diabatic heat release from the tropical convection. So, watch closely where the low frequency forcing sets up in May/June.

 

Oh, and I'll be in the Seattle and Vancouver area in late July, so expect a major heatwave around that timeframe.

 

Vancouver, BC or Vancouver, WA? Regardless, it won't be too hot here. 

[Phil]

Vancouver, BC or Vancouver, WA? Regardless, it won't be too hot here.

Seattle from July 23rd to 25th, then driving up to BC to meet extended family for a few days of deep sea fishing, then back in Seattle for another few days before heading down to FL on August 2nd.

 

I'm looking forward to it, haven't been out west in several years.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, it depends on the longitude of the NPAC trough, which is heavily influenced by diabatic heat release from the tropical convection. So, watch closely where the low frequency forcing sets up in May/June.

 

Oh, and I'll be in the Seattle and Vancouver area in late July, so expect a major heatwave around that timeframe.

Perfect. Heatwaves around here are generally very enjoyable. Especially compared to what you're used to.

[Jesse]

Perfect. Heatwaves around here are generally very enjoyable. Especially compared to what you're used to.

Your love of heat must be what drew you to Vancouver Island, the heat capitol of the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

Portland should be due for a 104+ type event this summer. It's been eight years.

[Jesse]

Portland should be due for a 104+ type event this summer. It's been eight years.

Indeed. Hopefully a summer with lots of wild swings, more like 2008 than 2009. Heat spikes, thunderstorm outbreaks, drizzly marine later days. Those are the best kinds of summers.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

After the drought last year I can't say I mind the rain, but then again the persistent pattern has favored a dominant Olympic rain shadow. Most of the Victoria area has only seen about 3~4" this month, just a little above average. The previous 2 years had less than 1" in April-May combined, I'd be happy to avoid a repeat.

[ShawniganLake]

Your love of heat must be what drew you to Vancouver Island, the heat capitol of the PNW.

Yep, that and I have lived here my entire life. If he's in Vancouver during a heat wave, expect a few days around 90 with a gusty NW wind near the water. Pleasant stuff by DC standards.

 

FYI, inland Vancouver island can scorch pretty good by PNW standards.

[BLI snowman]

Indeed. Hopefully a summer with lots of wild swings, more like 2008 than 2009. Heat spikes, thunderstorm outbreaks, drizzly marine later days. Those are the best kinds of summers.

 

Hopefully something a little more interesting than the past couple. I suppose 2015 was interesting from the one-dimensional endless heat aspect.

[TT-SEA]

I need to take a break from watching the models. 

 

Everything seems to trend in whatever direction it takes to make it rain more.   Last night the 00Z ECMWF show a nice, deep trough for  this coming Sunday which would have resulted in nice weather.   Now there is more of a flat ridge making it much wetter.   Trough vanished.

 

The system tomorrow was shown to be far enough offshore to allow for a decent day... but that one trended lower with 500mb heights and now it will rain all day.  Trough deepened.  

 

Its becoming comically bad at this point.   2-3 dry days in a row would be an absolute miracle.   Should not be asking for too much after the wettest Feb/Mar in history.

 

Here is Sunday from the run last night... looks good enough for a cool and partly cloudy day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017032700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

 

And now tonight's run... slight difference means rain all day. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017032800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

[TT-SEA]

But in 10 days it has to change right?    <_>

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls15/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls15-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-hp68kC.png

[ShawniganLake]

But in 10 days it has to change right? <_>

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls15/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls15-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-hp68kC.png

Slightly chillier rain!

[ShawniganLake]

After the drought last year I can't say I mind the rain, but then again the persistent pattern has favored a dominant Olympic rain shadow. Most of the Victoria area has only seen about 3~4" this month, just a little above average. The previous 2 years had less than 1" in April-May combined, I'd be happy to avoid a repeat.

The total for March so far is right around 6" here. Not overly wet but it's been persistent with just 2 totally dry days this month.

[WeatherArchive]

So you're completely backpeddling on your warm season forecast. Nice.

 

Sounds like exactly what we saw in 2014, which according you just a week or so ago was an antilog.

I remember him stating an average to slightly warmer then average summer with a nice spring back in late Jan or so. To some degree you're right

[Jesse]

Yep, that and I have lived here my entire life. If he's in Vancouver during a heat wave, expect a few days around 90 with a gusty NW wind near the water. Pleasant stuff by DC standards.

 

FYI, inland Vancouver island can scorch pretty good by PNW standards.

Has your area been over 100F historically?