Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yikes, it's been a rough week for the GFS. The correlation scores are approaching coin flip territory. #GooFuS http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4D21AABD-831A-4231-B132-E7671944EA5B_zps79lccwhh.jpg 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 This all stems from the GFS's inability to properly simulate tropical convection, due to the fact it's an old school spectral model with a very outdated cumulus parameterization(s). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 This all stems from the GFS's inability to properly simulate tropical convection, due to the fact it's an old school spectral model with a very outdated cumulus parameterization(s).I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yikes, it's been a rough week for the GFS. The correlation scores are approaching coin flip territory. #GooFuS http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4D21AABD-831A-4231-B132-E7671944EA5B_zps79lccwhh.jpg Yeah, it's funny, most the time the GFS isn't that much worse than the Euro, but every once in awhile it falls WAY behind. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yeah, it's funny, most the time the GFS isn't that much worse than the Euro, but every once in awhile it falls WAY behind.Yeah, and it always seems to happen during MJO waves or the inception/termination of the Asian summer monsoons. Coincidence, I think not. This model just struggles with tropical convection, plain and simple. It seems to perform much better during strong ENSO periods, which are often devoid of MJO activity due to dominance of the low frequency background boundary conditions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening.This makes you very important. Somehow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 82/50 here... gorgeous day. It was 83 on Lake Sammamish this afternoon... kids actually went swimming which I thought was a little crazy. The lake was very busy and there was a wait to launch which is unusual. We figured out a way to keep my daughter safe since she insisted on being in the water. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 We're finally starting to see some model agreement w/ regards to the timing of the MJO bifurcation out of the EHEM. If this holds true, June will be a -PNA/+AO month, with a trough axis west of the continental divide an Aleutian/GOA anticyclone. This supports the low-frequency-derived pattern analogs favoring a cooler than average June in the PNW and much of the Intermountain West as well. Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it. Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it. Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right. Snow does not feel right in April and May either. 17 inches in June is just crazy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it. Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right.Yeah, a summer solstice snowstorm would feel like the apocalypse to me, given what I'm used to at that point. Though, it wasn't too long ago that the majority of snowfall in the US occurred during the summer. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it. Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right. Western MT saw heavy June snowfalls in both 2001 and 2008...in both cases, following major heat waves in May here in the PNW. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 06z GFS is the first run of any model to knock down the ridge already on Memorial Day. The ECMWF and EPS showed nothing even close to that solution... but I assume the 06Z GFS will be the trail blazer on this one. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening. Panda express? You fell off the wagon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Snow does not feel right in April and May either. 17 inches in June is just crazy. The April snow wasn't too bad but I agree about May. Definitely easy to lose track that it's almost Memorial Day when it's still snowing. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Western MT saw heavy June snowfalls in both 2001 and 2008...in both cases, following major heat waves in May here in the PNW. Looks like 2008 was the last time significant accumulating snowfall in June occurred in this area. Interesting point about the May heat in the PNW and Western MT snowfall correlation. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Panda express? You fell off the wagon!Taste of China. Probably even worse. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Looks like 2008 was the last time significant accumulating snowfall in June occurred in this area. Interesting point about the May heat in the PNW and Western MT snowfall correlation. That June 2008 trough was cold. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 FWIW... the 12Z GFS keeps us very warm for the next 17 days with the exception of Wednesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Panda express? You fell off the wagon!Taste of China. Probably even worse. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Taste of China. Probably even worse.The restaurant so nice you said it twice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 The restaurant so nice you said it twice!I have no idea why that happened. Fred... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 12z GFS bringing back memories of 2014-2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 12z GFS bringing back memories of 2014-2016.It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period. We really deserve it. I don't know how anybody got through this spring without crippling depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 We really deserve it. I don't know how anybody got through this spring without crippling depression.If you managed to, there is clearly something deeply wrong with you. Might want to seek therapy if the suicidal thoughts were occurring on a less than weekly basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period. Sarcastic Jesse is back! Must be turning nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 12Z ECMWF is perfection through day 10 and still no signs of a big crash at 240 hours. Good enough for me right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Sarcastic Jesse is back! Must be turning nice. Sarcastic Jesse never left. Have we met? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Sarcastic Jesse never left. Have we met? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Really hoping Phil's cold and wet June pulls through. We need a break from this endless warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 If you managed to, there is clearly something deeply wrong with you. Might want to seek therapy if the suicidal thoughts were occurring on a less than weekly basis.I didn't see a single smile when I was there last month. And I was there for a wedding. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 At least the 12z Euro came in a little cooler overall than the 00z. Gotta focus on the small things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 12Z ECMWF is perfection through day 10 and still no signs of a big crash at 240 hours. Good enough for me right now. Just think though, we'll have a trough at some point in June. That means you can't enjoy any of the next 10 days because in the back of your mind, you'll know that the nice weather won't last forever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 At least the 12z Euro came in a little cooler overall than the 00z. Gotta focus on the small things.Tragic to have a dry period after 3.5 months of almost daily rain and the second record breaking wet winter in row. We need a wet and cold month to offset this... makes sense. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Poor Mother Nature. Can't make one person happy without upsetting someone else. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Tragic to have a dry period after 3.5 months of almost daily rain and the second record breaking wet winter in row. We need a wet and cold month to offset this... makes sense. Cooler and dry is great too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 PDX already up to 78 as of noon. First 90 of the year there looking possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Would be semi-interesting to have a contest guessing the number of 90+ days this summer at PDX, and 85+ for SEA. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Would be semi-interesting to have a contest guessing the number of 90+ days this summer at PDX, and 85+ for SEA.God forbid someone doesn't score it for you. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Cooler and dry is great too.That would be good too. I am cheering for dry... don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me. You said you are hoping for a wet and cold June. As most people are... I am sure. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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