PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the 18z has upgraded from the Drunk Uncle, then to the Heroin Uncle, and now to the Fentanyl/Meth/Bath Salts Uncle. WTF

I like that one best. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ehhh

What can I say…I’m terrible at explaining things. All I know is it’s boring with no snow on the ground but if you live at Stevens Or Snoqualmie pass you can stay chilly at elevation. Or am I WAY WAY off? I probably am. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What can I say…I’m terrible at explaining things. All I know is it’s boring with no snow on the ground but if you live at Stevens Or Snoqualmie pass you can stay chilly at elevation. Or am I WAY WAY off? I probably am. 

Cold settles beneath the warmer air, due to lack of mixing. Because cold air is denser. 

[Slushy Inch]

That ridge is really getting pinched. Manages to hang in there. Looks a lot like GEFS. Moisture may undercut ridge soon.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the 18z has upgraded from the Drunk Uncle, then to the Heroin Uncle, and now to the Fentanyl/Meth/Bath Salts Uncle. WTF

I think yesterday's 18z was a bit crazier. 1.5" ice storm followed by a 12" snowstorm then an arctic airmass and a 2.5" sleet storm transitioning us out of the cold. This run is crazy too though with the low level cold

 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I like that one best. 

Me too!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS anytime it runs 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m just gonna say. Some of our coldest winters had patterns like the one upcoming… Not our snowiest ones though. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty chilly here today with a current temp of 37.  Very low snowline on the nearby mountains.

[BLI snowman]

Real or fake, it's getting closer to safe to say that this is going to wind up being a pretty cold month for the lowlands. 

The complete lack of any signal for any even modest Pacific influence after this weekend is now apparent on all of the operational and ensemble runs. Gonna be a whole lotta offshore flow coming up. On top of an already cold start to the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest winter of the century is on the table though. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m just gonna say. Some of our coldest winters had patterns like the one upcoming… Not our snowiest ones though. 

Good point.  A lot of snow is not a guarantee with persistently cold winters as weird as that seems.  On the other hand you have ones like 1948-49 that did very well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's keep moving timing ahead. Low level cold begins I think Day 6?

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m just gonna say. Some of our coldest winters had patterns like the one upcoming… Not our snowiest ones though. 

1928-29 is a fun old example of a fake cold laden start to a winter leading to a real cold pattern, in a year that never really delivered any significant onshore flow. Flipped from +PNA to -PNA in mid January just in time for inversion season to wind down, and we proceeded to end up sitting under an arctic airmass for 4 weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  A lot of snow is not a guarantee with persistently cold winters as weird as that seems.  On the other hand you have ones like 1948-49 that did very well.

1978-79 was a very cold winter here without a ton of snow. Another example would be 1984-85, not a ton of snow here. Though there were a couple decent events. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1928-29 is a fun old example of a fake cold laden start to a winter leading to a real cold pattern, in a year that never really delivered any significant onshore flow. Flipped from +PNA to -PNA in mid January just in time for inversion season to wind down, and we proceeded to end up sitting under an arctic airmass for 4 weeks. 

Probably the most underrated PNW winter. 

[Snownerd3000]

Might need a plumber on call Christmas Eve 

[Doinko]

Okay GFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS looks like Day 5 low level cold begins. Day 7 this may be going places.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Okay GFS

 

Pretty realistic for Seattle area.

[DeepFriedEgg]

GFS = ecstasy

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It’s been years since we’ve had a nice, strong, cold, frosty inversion. We’re due.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GEFS looks like Day 5 low level cold begins. Day 7 this may be going places.

850 temps don't even get that warm, and are cooler than last GEFS.

[SnowySeeker50]

I will give the remains of the snowman another day.

[Doinko]

Full run. Clown range looks very nice, after a long period of low level cold

[RentonHill]

35 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

AKA, the thorn in the side of those of us who heat our homes exclusively with a woodstove. 

Waiting for Tim to chime in about how everyone is celebrating this pattern that will bring poor air quality when we hate this pattern in the summer. I'm so meta

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty chilly here today with a current temp of 37.  Very low snowline on the nearby mountains.

Jim will you take me gold panning?? I have a blue wheel too and a mini sluice!

[Deweydog]

Direct transitions from fake to real cold are pretty darn rare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Direct transitions from fake to real cold are pretty darn rare.

December 2009?

[Phishy Wx]

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the 18z has upgraded from the Drunk Uncle, then to the Heroin Uncle, and now to the Fentanyl/Meth/Bath Salts Uncle. WTF

DMT/LSD Uncle.  Cool aand groovy

[MossMan]

Wasn’t January 2013 a fake cold extravaganza? Look at this super exciting picture from that event!!!!!!!!!! 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2009?

I thought that was the other way around? 35.6 average at PDX, colder than 2008

[Phishy Wx]

I'm glad we could all have class today and explain the most perfect fake cold setup in the history of fake cold complete with full diagrams and maps.  Thanks tripping balls Uncle Goofus

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably the most underrated PNW winter. 

These whippersnappers on here are just too young to remember... 

[Brennan]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Direct transitions from fake to real cold are pretty darn rare.

88*F on October 16th is pretty rare. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought that was the other way around? 35.6 average at PDX, colder than 2008

There were some pretty cold days at the beginning of the month I didn’t think were associated with the arctic event a few days later.

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably the most underrated PNW winter. 

I just looked at Portland's stats for that winter, and they had a 20/16 day on 1/28 with 3.6" of snow. And 4 highs in the 20s that month. And then an average temp of 35.7 in February, with continuous snow cover from the 1st to the 16th. The extreme sustained cold next January too of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wednesday 4 AM - Saturday 4 AM. Low level cold intensifying.

[Phishy Wx]

if GFS is even halfway right it's going to some of the coldest weather I've seen in 5 winters in Spokane, probably the coldest

[Requiem]

The 18z is an east wind lover's dream for the metro. Just never shuts off 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Brennan said:

88*F on October 16th is pretty rare. 

I only hit 82 that day.