PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're going to need a warmer coat!

What about Seattle?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Un fuggin real. The maximally perfect pattern. Everything from the upstream wavedriving in SE Asia to the sprawling SE US ridge. The pure essence of -ENSO/+QBO. As good as it can get.

Kind of a 1968-69 look.  That winter featured the ridge bridge across northern Canada.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

What about Seattle?

Oops!  I forgot I had it set for Portland.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

What about Seattle?

yeah what about seattle, HUH?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of a 1968-69 look.  That winter featured the ridge bridge across northern Canada.

No SSW either. Just pure tropical forcing. That is a beauty of a weather pattern. I would not trade this run in for anything else. The 06z will probably be worse based simply on the fact that our weather patterns can only get so good.

[MWG]

Downslopping flow have kept the rain away.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. EURO is vastly different already at Day 2.5!

[snow_wizard]

There are 7 ensemble members on the GEFS that are very cold also.  Mean is slowly improving.

[Phishy Wx]

GFS has Spokane below 0 for 66 hours straight at one point. LOL

[selkirks]

now add more precip!

[SouthHillFrosty]

To cold to snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, selkirks said:

now add more precip!

Exactly. 

[Gummy]

Looking back at last December, I forgot how many 50 degree highs we had leading up to the cold blast the week of Christmas.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. Not even close with handling the cut-off low. No agreement. EURO continues to hold it further offshore.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind is raging out there this evening. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, selkirks said:

now add more precip!

If this run verifies I won't complain regardless.  That is historic cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Un fuggin real. The maximally perfect pattern. Everything from the upstream wavedriving in SE Asia to the sprawling SE US ridge. The pure essence of -ENSO/+QBO. As good as it can get.

It’s all going to end up going east. 50˚F and rain on Christmas Day.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

GFS has Spokane below 0 for 66 hours straight at one point. LOL

then a 6 hour reprieve up to 4 above, then another 66 hours below 0 through the end of the run, LOL

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile, back in realityland, PDX has yet to rise above 46 degrees this December. Last time that happened………………………

 

 

 

 

 

2005.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wind is raging out there this evening. 

Yet another strong front this Fall. They all have been very dynamic.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s all going to end up going east. 50˚F and rain on Christmas Day.

DeepFriedEgg??!

[Gradient Keeper]

Fairly impressive winds at Salem gusting just shy of 50mph. Considering only 25-35mph was forecast that's a win!

[Meatyorologist]

On 12/5/2022 at 7:04 PM, Skagit Weather said:

There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested).

I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below.

Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation.

For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below.

Seattle

In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range.

Bellingham

Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range.

Olympia

Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range.

Bumping this again because this is an s tier post and is exactly the kind of stuff we want here. Adds a bit of context too to the intense nature of the last year. Very anomalous... Far more in the warm direction thus far. The GFS might actually even the score a tad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE gusting to 49mph.

[WeatherGeek2022]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s all going to end up going east. 50˚F and rain on Christmas Day.

tis but the nature of seattle  I do hope you're wrong though. we're so overdue for our turn of historic cold+snow

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 hmmm....

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is showing a solid freeze both Monday night and Tuesday nights.  Just the beginning of what could be an amazing run of cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

DeepFriedEgg??!

Machine learning model.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Un fuggin real. The maximally perfect pattern. Everything from the upstream wavedriving in SE Asia to the sprawling SE US ridge. The pure essence of -ENSO/+QBO. As good as it can get.

Beautiful pattern to drive the Arctic air down to us! Just in time for Christmas!
 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Bumping this again because this is an s tier post and is exactly the kind of stuff we want here. Adds a bit of context too to the intense nature of the last year. Very anomalous... Far more in the warm direction thus far. The GFS might actually even the score a tad.

SEA has eaten up a little over half of the warm anoms recorded for July through October already.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Machine learning model.

I bet Judah is really bummed about now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

An ECMWF type solution will take us a bit longer to get to the good stuff than what the 0z GFS shows.  Compromise might be the actual outcome.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[RentonHill]

The whale block is about to ejectulate a cutoff low right into our backside

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I bet Judah is really bummed about now.

Oh Jim…

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

The whale block is about to ejectulate a cutoff low right into our backside

@Meatyorologist this the kind of post you were talking about right,more of these??

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

An ECMWF type solution will take us a bit longer to get to the good stuff than what the 0z GFS shows.  Compromise might be the actual outcome.

"Fake" low level cold for a week, then the big stuff drops.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 for those east wind fans out there PDX-DLS at least -10mb.